As usual, we have a shortened Sunday slate, and FanDuel for some reason refuses to include the 3:00 Coors game, so lineups should look dynamically different across the sites this afternoon. Pitching is weak overall, so you should be able to get your favorite bats in across all formats. I will be in chat around noon EST helping you set your lineups, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Jon Lester, CHC ($8400)
Lester is not the ace he once was, but he looks like a building block for cash games on this slate on every site. He has the only IRTA under four runs (3.6) and is facing the Mets who are by far the worst team in wRC+ against LHP, and they also have the second highest K rate against lefties. Lester’s 2.71 ERA is likely to blow up a bit given his 4.42 xFIP, but I don’t think today is the day as the Mets simply have no right-handed threats in their lineup with Cespedes and Flores on the DL. I’m inclined to call Lester a lock today.
Other options – Mike Clevinger, Jake Junis, Michael Wacha
Domingo German, NYY ($6600)
If you want to embrace the fact that there are simply no safe pitchers and focus solely on loading up on offense in cash, that’s a viable alternate strategy (although I think Lester is still cheap enough to get multiple big bats). German looks to be the best option of the cheap crowd. He comes with run prevention risk but his 10.64 K/9 could play really well against an Orioles team that ranks 27th in wRC+ against RHP with the third highest K rate against. Thanks to the Yankees offense, German is the largest favorite on this slate at -178, and his 4.1 IRTA is actually the third lowest.
Other options – Michael Fulmer, Brent Suter, Aaron Sanchez, Steven Matz, Anibal Sanchez
Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4200)
Any stud batter is in play today for cash, and Freeman certainly fits that bill. Jeremy Hellickson has pitched fairly well this season, but he still struggles with power and has allowed a .202 ISO to LHB over the past two years. Freeman has a .404 wOBA and .257 ISO against RHP in that span and the wind is blowing directly out to RF.
Other options – Edwin Encarnacion, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Abreu, Matt Adams, Gary Sanchez
Greg Bird, NYY ($3300)
The Yankees are the top offense on FD’s slate with a 5.4 IRT, and Bird is still very affordable even though his price has risen. Bird has a 31.3% hard hit rate since returning from the DL, and he has a .237 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Alex Cobb is one of the worst pitchers on this slate, and is an easy attack point.
Other options – Matt Olson, Jesus Aguilar, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Smoak, Josh Bell
Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Kurt Suzuki, Manny Pina
Ozzie Albies, ATL ($4000)
Albies’ hard hit data has really cooled after his sizzling start to the season, but he’s still a great option today against Hellickson. The switch-hitting Albies will maintain the platoon edge throughout the game, and he has a combined 20 homers and steals so far in his quest for NL ROY. He’s viable in cash simply because 2B is so thin today.
Other options – Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield
Jonathan Villar, MIL ($2700)
Villar doesn’t come with optimal lineup spots (usually sixth or seventh), but he has over a 30% hard hit rate over his last ten games and has blazing speed. Dylan Covey is arguably the worst pitcher on this slate, and the Brewers’ IRT is a 5.3 runs which is hot on the heels of the Yankees. There’s always the chance we see an elevated lineup in Sunday’s watered down batting orders.
Other options – Jed Lowrie, Josh Harrison, Jace Peterson
Travis Shaw, MIL ($4000)
Speaking of the Brewers, here is the best overall option to attack Covey with. Over the past two years, Covey has allowed a .377 wOBA and .224 ISO to LHB and Shaw has smashed righties in that time frame for a 38% hard hit rate and a .255 ISO. He can be used in cash, as a GPP one-off, or as a cornerstone of Brewers stacks today.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant, Mike Moustakas, Anthony Rendon
Miguel Andujar, NYY ($2900)
Andujar hits seventh or eighth which is certainly not ideal for cash, but he’s got a 31% hard hit rate over his last ten games. Unbelievably, Andujar now leads the Yankees in multi-hit games and is second only to Aaron Judge in XBH with 26. Against Alex Cobb, he has massive upside despite being limited to 3-4 plate appearances. He has a .222 ISO in his rookie season.
Other options – Jeimer Candelario, Matt Chapman, Yolmer Sanchez
Trea Turner, WAS ($4200)
There are a lot of usable shortstops and none of them really stand out, so attacking Anibal Sanchez with Turner is a fine option (although he doesn’t rate as highly as the other top plays in this article). Turner has been far better against same-handed pitching in his career (.225 ISO since the beginning of last year), and Sanchez has allowed a shade under two homers per nine innings since the beginning of 2015. Nationals stacks are sneaky today, and likely low-owned.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, Didi Gregorius, Tim Anderson
Yangervis Solarte, TOR ($3200)
Solarte is a usable value, even though the overall Toronto lineup is hurting right now. Michael Fulmer is a decent pitcher but he can’t miss bats (career 6.98 K/9), and the switch-hitting Solarte will maintain the platoon edge over the Detroit bullpen that ranks dead last in FIP and ISO allowed.
Other options – Addison Russell, Amed Rosario, Orlando Arcia
Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($5000/$4400)
I would make it a point to get one of these Yankee bats into cash today. They are facing Alex Cobb whose 11% K rate this season is likely to spell disaster against this Yankees lineup. Judge has been the better hitter against same-handed pitching (career .430 wOBA, .336 ISO), but Stanton has been excellent too and comes in at $600 cheaper. If choosing, I would likely lean Stanton based on the money savings, but both have tremendous hard hit data right now, and putting both in cash gets no argument from me if you can fit ’em.
Other options – Bryce Harper, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley, Khris Davis, Tommy Pham
Ryan Braun, MIL ($3400)
Braun is usually better against lefties, but Covey is so bad that Braun becomes a nice affordable way to gain access to an offense that only trails the Yankees by 0.1 runs in projection. Covey has been horrendous against same-handed hitting in his career, allowing a .395 wOBA and .251 ISO to them, and Braun is (believe it or not), still maintaining speed upside even as he gets up there in age.
Other options – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Ender Inciarte, Preston Tucker, Juan Soto, Leonys Martin, Ben Zobrist, Matt Joyce, Stephen Piscotty