It’s Friday, and temperatures are on the RISE! Should we fade the top pitchers and go for offense? Or is that too risky? We’ll have all the answers for you in FTA+ chat tonight, and I’m always available to our subs on twitter @jac3600. With 14 games on the docket, we should have a fun evening. Good luck all!
Jacob deGrom, NYM ($11,700)
The is a holy triumvirate of top arms today, and all are cash viable, but you have to realize you’ll be sacrificing some top bats in some hot weather to get them. DeGrom edges out the other two by a bit for me with a plus matchup against the Marlins in a climate-controlled environment, and they rank 24th in wRC+ against RHP with the tenth highest K rate. J.T. Realmuto has been missing games lately, and if he’s out of the lineup again that would really help deGrom’s projection a little more.
Other options – Trevor Bauer, Gerrit Cole, Patrick Corbin
Joe Musgrove, PIT ($7200)
If you want more hitting, you’ll have to sacrifice the safety of the top SPs (both are viable routes today). Musgrove seems to be the best one at the moment even though he’s had a couple of rough outings lately. He’s facing a Padres squad that ranks second in wRC+ against RHP and the second highest K rate against, and the IRT is under four runs which means a good deal on a slate like this.
Other options – Eduardo Rodriguez, Rich Hill, Marco Gonzales, Tyler Anderson, Marcus Stroman, Sal Romano, Felix Pena
Eric Thames, MIL ($3900)
Thames is still underpriced on FanDuel at $3900, and he’s in a terrific context tonight. Sal Romano has gotten beaten on by lefties in his career (.194 ISO allowed since the beginning of last year), and Thames has been a beast against RHP since his return to the majors (.296 ISO). He’s a great option in all formats no matter who you use at SP.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto
Jose Abreu, CHW ($3300)
If you need to save some money off Thames (which you might if you lock in an ace SP), Abreu is a great value. The White Sox have an IRT pushing five runs in the heat of Texas, and are facing Yovani Gallardo who has allowed a .370 wOBA and .216 ISO to same-handed hitters over the last two years. Abreu himself has a .219 ISO against RHP in that span, and he’ll hit third on the road.
Other options – Carlos Santana, Albert Pujols, Justin Smoak, Chris Davis
Catcher values – Buster Posey, Tucker Barnhart, Yasmani Grandal, Russell Martin, Kevan Smith
Ozzie Albies, ATL ($4500)
Albies is strictly GPP-only (especially since he’s now hurt) against a decent pitcher in Miles Mikolas, but he’s still sizzling with five multi-hit games in a row and a 48% hard hit rate in that span. You’ll get him super low owned tonight, so fire away as long as he’s back in the lineup.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Gleyber Torres, Dee Gordon
Yoan Moncada, CHW ($3300)
The White Sox have my full attention tonight against Yovani Gallardo, and honestly I’m not looking at anyone else in cash at this point except Moncada. Gallardo has been just as bad against lefties, and Moncada has a .208 ISO against RHP so far in his career with a speed element as well. His hard hit rate is up, and five PAs is a good bet.
Other options – Ian Kinsler, Josh Harrison, Rougned Odor, Jonathan Villar
Matt Carpenter, STL ($4000)
This is an odd name to have at the top of the 3B list, but Carpenter has an unbelievable 50% hard hit rate over his last 15 games which is quite a stretch. He’s facing a quality pitcher in Julio Teheran, but Teheran has always struggled with lefties (.209 ISO allowed since the start of last season). Carpenter has a .245 ISO against RHP in that span.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, Eugenio Suarez, Kyle Seager, Travis Shaw
Luis Valbuena, LAA ($2600)
Valbuena remains underpriced on all sites despite the fact that he has over a .200 ISO in the month of June. It’s more the context than anything else here, as he gets a major park upgrade going to Camden Yards, and is facing David Hess who has a 6.07 FIP and 1.96 HR/9 allowed so far in his career. Valbuena should hit fifth, and is great cheap exposure to a team with a whopping 5.6 IRT.
Other options – Justin Turner, Miguel Andujar, Yangervis Solarte
Elvis Andrus, TEX ($3500)
You want some Rangers exposure tonight, as they check in with the highest IRT on the slate at 5.7 runs. Dylan Covey’s regression has already started as his K/BB rate is not conducive to major league success, and now he faces a brutal pitching environment in Texas. Andrus hasn’t done much since his return from the DL, but his hard hit rate is trending up and he has speed upside as well.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, Trevor Story, Jean Segura
Kike Hernandez, LAD ($2900)
You always have to worry about the PH risk with Kike, but his price is always kept in check as a result. He’s facing a lefty which means the upside is staggering (Kike has a .389 wOBA and .290 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year), and Tyler Anderson has allowed a .215 ISO to RHB in that span despite a solid GB rate.
Other options – Chris Taylor, Jose Peraza, Nick Ahmed
Mike Trout, LAA ($5100)
The OF position is loaded tonight, but Trout is the cream of the crop with a great matchup on top of his already insane skill set. I mentioned David Hess’ failures in Valbuena’s blurb, and Hess has actually been worse against RHB than lefties (.227 ISO allowed). Since the beginning of last year, Trout has smoked RHP for a .444 wOBA and .333 ISO, and the Angels’ IRT is 5.6 runs. He’s a tough fit if you go with an expensive starter, but I’d lock him in if you decide to go cheap.
Other options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Christian Yelich, Justin Upton, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Shin Soo Choo
Avisail Garcia, CHW ($2400)
The cheapest option I can find right now that looks like a cash lock is Avisail. I already mentioned my love of the White Sox offense against Gallardo, and Garcia will hit second on the road which is a good bet for five PAs. Temperatures a projected to be in the upper 90s, and Garcia has a .202 ISO against RHP over the past two years.
Other options – Adam Eaton, Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Pillar, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Colby Rasmus, Starling Marte, Austin Meadows, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Matt Kemp