It was a win all around last night. FanDuel was bubbling for a while, but the late Ozzie Albies homer propelled all cash lineups well into the money. Today we have 14 games and TONS of pitching to go along with several offenses with IRTs over five. Value will be the key, as will be picking out that one big spend. I’ll be available to help, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Luis Severino, NYY ($10,600)
Seeing Severino’s price tag was a pleasant surprise, as I expected him to rival Kluber. The fact that Sev is $1200 cheaper makes this an easy choice in cash, as his matchup is easier than Kluber’s as well. Severino will get a park and league shift (no DH in the National League), and the Phillies have the highest K rate in the league against RHP. He’s a -220 favorite with an IRTA of three runs, which is a league low. The Yankees bullpen has been used heavily the last few games too, so an extra inning or two is in the realm of possibility.
Other options – Corey Kluber, Charlie Morton, James Paxton, Ross Stripling
Freddy Peralta, MIL ($7700)
If you want to stack up on offense in GPPs, Peralta looks like the best choice for upside at a lower cost. The sample size is way too small to put any stock in, but Peralta has an elite 41% K rate at the major league level so far and the Royals will be losing the DH tonight as well. They’re not a big K team but Peralta is a -210 favorite with a 3.3 IRTA, which rivals the studs above.
Other options – Zack Godley, Lance Lynn, Jake Junis, Steven Matz, Carlos Martinez
Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4800)
Freeman is my top ranked hitter overall for the second straight day, but once again he’s out of reach for cash games. Freeman is absolutely crushing it this year, and he gets the coveted matchup against Matt Harvey who has allowed a .407 wOBA and .262 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year. Freeman is an elite GPP option, and a cornerstone of Braves stacks.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Eric Thames, Mitch Moreland
Eric Hosmer, SD ($2900)
The Padres of all teams will be our source of value tonight, and you’ll want multiple players from their team. They are getting a major park boost going to Texas, and the matchup has brought them an IRT of 4.9 runs which we usually only see from them in Coors Field. Austin Bibens-Dirkx has admittedly outpitched his ERA by a bit this year but the BABIP and K rate indicate it won’t stand. Bibens-Dirkx has a paltry 14.3% K rate, and has only struck out 8.4% of lefties. Hosmer is an easy call in cash at under 3k.
Other options – Jose Abreu, Justin Bour, Logan Morrison, Joe Mauer
Catcher values – Buster Posey, Mike Zunino, Victor Martinez, Christian Vazquez
Ozzie Albies, ATL ($4500)
Albies was my “one big spend” yesterday which made all the difference, but I don’t know if I can go back to the well with Mookie Betts and JD Martinez on the slate (more on them later). Albies is now 12 for his last 22 with a homer and seven runs over the past four games, and there’s no reason that heater can’t continue against Matt Harvey and the Reds bullpen. If I can fit him in, I’m giving it a serious thought.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Brian Dozier, D.J. LeMahieu
Yoan Moncada, CHW ($3300)
Moncada was under 3k a few days ago, but this is still a nice tag for him given the context. Moncada has a .207 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year and he can steal bases, and he’s facing Lance Lynn who has allowed a .346 wOBA and 1.44 HR/9 to LHB in that span. Moncada has a 36% hard hit rate over his last ten, and has the park factor in his favor.
Other options – Ian Kinsler, Dee Gordon, Eduardo Nunez, Jose Pirela
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4600)
This is strictly a GPP play since Arenado is priced for Coors Field and he couldn’t be farther from it as far as park factor goes (San Fran). However, Arenado is killing the ball right now, and has an unreal .554 wOBA and .434 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year (yes, you’re reading that right). Derek Holland has allowed 1.55 HR/9 to RHB in that span, and I feel like Arenado will be passed over in GPPs since he’s not in Coors.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, Travis Shaw, Eduardo Escobar
Christian Villanueva, SD ($2800)
I have other Padres prioritized ahead of Villanueva (Hosmer and Myers, more on him later), but you can certainly use Villanueva in cash games. I’ve mentioned that attacking Bibens-Dirkx is a smart way to go, and Villanueva has been just fine against same-handed pitching with a .177 ISO. He should hit third or fourth for the Padres on the road, and is under 3k.
Other options – Jeimer Candelario, Kyle Seager, Cory Spangenberg, Danny Santana
Carlos Correa, HOU ($4100)
We haven’t really talked about the Astros yet, but they too have an IRT of five runs and are facing a lefty in their home park (a situation they excel in). Correa has been amazing against LHP since the beginning of last year with a .414 wOBA and .187 ISO against, and has a 31% hard hit rate over the last ten games.
Other options – Manny Machado, Trevor Story, Didi Gregorius, Xander Bogaerts, Jean Segura
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3300)
Semien is the value play if you’re not paying up for one of those expensive guys. He’ll hit first or second on the road in Detroit, and Semien is much better with the platoon edge than without it. Blaine Hardy is decent pitcher, but Semien has a .202 ISO since the beginning of 2016 and Detroit’s bullpen is ranked 27th in xFIP and 28th in ISO allowed.
Other options – Elvis Andrus, Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez
Mookie Betts/JD Martinez, BOS ($4900/$4800)
It makes sense to pay for one of these guys even alongside Luis Severino. The Red Sox have a slate-high IRT of 5.8 runs and will be be at home against an extreme fly-ball lefty in John Lamb (an elite context for Boston). Either one is fine (Betts .255 ISO, Martinez .358 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year), and both will be great in GPP stacks.
Other options – Andrew Benintendi, Mike Trout, George Springer, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Khris Davis, Christian Yelich, Ender Inciarte, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Shin Soo Choo
Wil Myers, SD ($2600)
Myers didn’t come through yesterday (Manuel Margot was the one who did, and luckily I had him too), but he’s even cheaper today than yesterday and once again is a must in cash games. Myers will not have the platoon edge but Austin Bibens-Dirkx has allowed a .356 wOBA and 1.50 HR/9 to RHB since the beginning of last season, and the park factor is elite for Myers and company.
Other options – Starling Marte, Austin Meadows, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Leonys Martin, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Braun, Mitch Haniger, Denard Span, Joey Gallo, Michael Conforto, Travis Jankowski, Max Kepler, Avisail Garcia