It was another spectacular weekend at FTA, and we’re ready to keep it rolling with a new week! We have a modest seven games this evening, and FD has two Rotogrinders Single Entry Series contests at $100 and at $2. Whatever your bankroll, those are good contests to enter. I will be in chat helping our subs, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD ($11,000)
Kershaw is not near worth his price tag in cash, but he’s once again an ace so there’s always GPP merit. Kershaw’s K rate is dropping which is one reason he’s not worth 11k, but he’s still got a minuscule 4.5% BB rate and a 12.5% swinging strike rate. There are multiple values at SP and big bats, so Kershaw is strictly a GPP play only.
Other options – Lucas Giolito
Jon Gray, COL ($8500)
It’s a Jon Gray night for me, although I must admit Eduardo Rodriguez is a close second. Gray doesn’t get the credit he deserves pitching in Coors, but he’s low key a very good pitcher. He’s once again striking out over a batter per inning and he has a 3.65 xFIP on the season. The Giants rank 28th in the league in wOBA against RHP with a 23.2% K rate (11th highest), and this is as good a park shift that possibly exists for a pitcher. I don’t think you go wrong with either Gray or E-Rod in cash, and this is the tier you want to roll.
Other options – Eduardo Rodriguez, Zack Greinke, Steven Matz, CC Sabathia, Drew Pomeranz
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($3900)
The early morning weather report has the wind blowing out to RC at 16-17 MPH which should really vault the run totals for both teams. As it sits now, the Cubs IRT is at six runs and Rizzo is a bargain on FD at under 4k. Julio Teheran has struggled against LHB his entire career, and this year he has a 5.15 SIERA and an 11.5% BB rate on top. Rizzo has a .396 wOBA and .267 ISO against RHP since last year and looks like a building block in cash.
Other options – Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana
Lucas Duda, KC ($2100)
Duda looks like he’s about done as a hitter, but we can use him in a “Kendrys Morales/Chris Davis” pure punt play on this slate. Adam Plutko has allowed a 42% FB rate since the beginning of last year and Duda has still posted a .233 ISO against RHP in that span. He helps you fit in more top offensive plays, and the UTIL spot makes it so you don’t have to sacrifice Rizzo.
Other options – Jose Abreu, Michael Chavis, Brandon Belt
Catcher values – James McCann, Roberto Perez, Dan Jansen
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Jason Kipnis, CLE ($3000)
Ew. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but it’s a short slate. Cleveland has an IRT of 5.6 runs on this slate and they stubbornly keep running out Kipnis as the cleanup hitter against RHP. His stats are rapidly on the decline, but he’s still got a 16% K rate against an 8% BB rate and his hard hit rate is at a career high. Just take the value and move on.
Other options – Gleyber Torres, Ozzie Albies, Cavan Biggio, Robinson Cano, Nicky Lopez
Kris Bryant, CHC ($3800)
Bryant is another Cub that’s underpriced and may command ownership on this slate. He’ll get the wind in Wrigley, and Teheran has been just as bad against RHP this season. Bryant has a .376 wOBA and .247 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu, Rafael Devers
Josh Donaldson, ATL ($3000)
Donaldson is still inexplicably priced given the way he’s been hitting. He has a 41.3% HHR over his last 15 games and has a .383 wOBA and .267 ISO against LHP since last year. Jon Lester is still pitching adequately, but he’s also allowing a career high 41.2% HHR this year.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Justin Turner, Vlad Guerrero, JD Davis
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($3700)
Lindor just keeps rolling on, and he’s just too cheap, although Javier Baez (see below) is even more “too cheap”. He’s putting out consistent power and speed, and opposing pitcher Brad Keller has a 5.05 xFIP and has walked almost five batters per nine innings. You can drop to the cheaper Baez to save a few hundred if you need, but either are great in cash.
Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson
Javier Baez, CHC ($3400)
Baez is better against lefties, but the price point is just too cheap for a team with an IRT of six runs. Baez is coming off a season where he had a combined 55 homers and steals, and while he’s not running as much this year he is already up to 19 homers (plus a .267 ISO which is right in line with last year).
Other options – Jean Segura, Tim Anderson, Didi Gregorius, Chris Taylor
Aaron Judge/Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4300/$4200)
We haven’t even gotten to the Yankees yet, and that’s crazy, since they have the highest IRT on the slate at 6.4 runs. Aaron Sanchez is one of the worst starters on the slate with a 5.42 SIERA, 17.4% K rate, and 12.9% BB rate. Judge is the preferred play here as he does better in the reverse split, but Stanton is very capable as well, and he actually has a 55.6% HHR since returning from the DL. Both are fully priced, but worth it.
Other options – Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Bryce Harper, Scott Kingery, Michael Conforto, Whit Merrifield
Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($3100)
Schwarber is once again a flat out lock on FD with a price tag that never seems to rise. He has settled in as the leadoff hitter for the Cubs and has posted a .261 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season. His K rate is still too high (26.4%) but Teheran’s K rate against LHB plummets. Make sure Schwarb is locked in there.
Other options – Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Joc Pederson, Jeff McNeil, Jorge Soler, Alex Gordon, Eloy Jimenez, Leury Garcia, Charlie Tilson, Aaron Hicks, Randal Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel,Fantasy Baseball