Happy Friday, first day of summer, and last day of school! We’re treated with a full 15-game slate with tons and tons of different choices to rock, and I’m playing with house money after the magic that was Luis Rengifo last night. Join us in our ever-growing community at FTA, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Chris Sale, BOS ($12,000)
Sale is FULLY priced, but it’s hard to say he’s not worth it given the matchup, the odds, and the way Sale has rounded into form. He has an elite 35.7% K rate which is backed by a 14.3% swinging strike rate. The Blue Jays have a middling K rate but rank 25th in wOBA against LHP, and Sale is a massive -360 favorite with a 2.9 IRTA. If the proper values arise, no one at FTA will argue paying up.
Other options – Trevor Bauer, Walker Buehler, Stephen Strasburg
Aaron Nola, PHI ($8700)
Choosing the “bat heavy” route is definitely viable if you use Nola. He hasn’t been himself this season, but we’re still talking about a guy who finished in the top 3 in the Cy Young vote last year and the matchup couldn’t get any better. The Marlins are still ranked last in runs scored and wOBA against RHP, and they have the sixth highest K rate against them with a 25% mark. Nola has allowed a 38% HHR this year with a 4.30 SIERA, but the matchup and price tag are amazing here.
Other options – James Paxton, German Marquez, Joe Musgrove, Sonny Gray, Jake Junis, Taylor Clarke
Jose Abreu, CHW ($3900)
The White Sox are going to get extra attention this weekend despite having the third highest K rate against RHP. They’re getting to face the horrible pitching staff of the Rangers in the top hitting environment on the slate. Ariel Jurado has a 4.65 SIERA and a 7.5% swinging strike rate while allowing a 41.2% HHR, and Abreu has a .345 wOBA and .222 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Rhys Hoskins, Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Trey Mancini
Yonder Alonso, CHW ($2600)
This is a cheaper version of the same upside. Alonso has hit cleanup against RHP for most of the season, and he has posted a very usable .196 ISO against RHP over the last three seasons. If you’re using Sale (or Bauer), you’re going to need value like Alonso.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, CJ Cron, Joey Votto, Brandon Belt, Justin Bour
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, JT Realmuto, Jason Castro, Buster Posey
Mike Moustakas, MIL ($3700)
Sonny Gray has low-key been fantastic against LHB this season, which is why he makes an intriguing GPP option tonight as well, but we simply can’t discount how good Moustakas has been against lefties either. Since the beginning of last year, he’s logged a .286 ISO against them, and he has a 48.2% HHR against them this year.
Other options – Ketel Marte, Jose Altuve
Rougned Odor, TEX ($2800)
Odor generally hits seventh which puts a damper on his floor, but the Rangers are the premier offense on the slate with an IRT of 6.3 runs. The reason is because they’re at home facing Reynaldo Lopez, who has a 6.31 ERA, 5.10 SIERA, and only a 30% GB rate. Odor is boom or bust, but Lopez doesn’t really miss bats either (9% swinging strike rate), and Odor helps fill out a thin position.
Other options – Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Schoop, Derek Dietrich, Joe Panik
Rafael Devers, BOS ($3800)
Devers has really taken that next step this year with a .361 wOBA and a combined 20 homers and steals, and he has a .234 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. The Red Sox have the second highest IRT on the slate at 5.6 runs, and Trent Thornton has allowed 1.73 HR/9 to LHB this season.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, Eduardo Escobar, Matt Chapman, Yoan Moncada
Asdrubal Cabrera, TEX ($2900)
If Cabrera is anywhere in the top six (which he should be), he’s a tremendous value for the top-ranked Rangers squad. The switch-hitting Cabrera will maintain the platoon edge throughout the game, and he has a 30.8% HHR over the last 15 games.
Other options – Manny Machado, Matt Carpenter, Josh Donaldson, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Ramirez
Jorge Polanco, MIN ($4000)
As this article has progressed, the Twins have surpassed the Red Sox in IRT, and now hold an IRT of 5.8 runs. Jake Junis is a capable pitcher, but the Twins rank by far in first in both wOBA and ISO against RHP, and Polanco is in the midst of a breakout year (he also homered yesterday). It makes a lot of sense to get your Twins exposure here at a position that routinely has very high opportunity cost.
Other options – Alex Bregman, Trea Turner, Elvis Andrus, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis
Jonathan Villar, BAL ($3100)
Baltimore is messing with its lineup a lot lately so we need him to be in the leadoff spot to really unlock is value. Mike Leake has been, dare we say, effective lately, but he’s still got a 4.58 SIERA and 8% swinging strike rate and has allowed almost a 42% HHR.
Other options – Jean Segura, Didi Gregorius, Tim Anderson, Brandon Crawford
Mike Trout, LAA ($4900)
It’s a Trout night again. He has almost a 40% HHR over his last 15 games and a .445 wOBA and .353 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Michael Wacha has become a terrible pitcher, especially against RHB to whom he’s allowed a .422 wOBA, 40% HHR, and over THREE homers per nine. The St. Louis bullpen is a top five SIERA team, but don’t let that sway you from the best hitter on the planet.
Other options – JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Bryce Harper, Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich, Shin Soo Choo
Nomar Mazara, TEX ($3000)
Mazara is a lock with a top-four lineup spot and a way-too-cheap price tag. He has a .211 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season and an incredible 49.3% HHR against them this season. He’s also one of four Rangers in the starting lineup that has an HHR of over 30%. Stack up Rangers, and don’t leave Mazara out of your cash lineup.
Other options – Delino DeShields, Eloy Jimenez, Leury Garcia, David Peralta, Jarrod Dyson, Joc Pederson, Victor Robles, Jordan Luplow, Jesse Winker, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Anthony SantanderFantasy Baseball