Welp, I was cruising along until Rich Hill…Rich Hill-ed me. Sigh. The only thing to do is move on to tonight. We have ten games on this Thursday main slate, and pitching is BAD. For that reason, we’ll focus on the hitters, and I’ll see all my FTA buds in chat tonight. Make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600 as well. Good luck!
Charlie Morton, TB ($10,500)
Meh. There’s almost no opportunity cost at SP tonight so I’m not wasting my money on Morton in cash. You can’t deny his GPP upside, however, as he’s posted a 30.6% K rate which is backed by a 13.2% swinging strike rate. The A’s are fully healthy, but they rank 19th in wOBA against RHP. There’s just too much offense to go around.
Other options – Jake Odorizzi
Zac Gallen, MIA ($7000)
Gallen is the fun pick tonight, as he’ll be called up for his MLB debut to face the Cardinals. St. Louis is not the ideal matchup, but Gallen has been absolutely batty at AAA this year with a 3.25 FIP and a 33.6% K rate. At 7k, he’s more than worth the risk for the upside. There are “safer” choices, but Gallen is all stretched out and shouldn’t have any pitch count limit.
Other options – Madison Bumgarner, Adam Wainwright, Tanner Roark, Jimmy Nelson
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
CJ Cron, MIN ($3400)
There are some big time offenses on this slate, but the Twins lead the way with an IRT of 5.8 runs, and they lead the majors in both wOBA and ISO against RHP. Cron hit second yesterday, but it remains to be seen if he’ll stay there. As long as he’s in the top five, though, he’s a great cash play. Glenn Sparkman is by far the worst play on the slate with a 5.25 SIERA, a 13% K rate, and a 41.5% HHR allowed, and the KC bullpen is 25th in SIERA.
Other options – Anthony Rizzo, Rhys Hoskins, Dan Vogelbach, Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, Albert Pujols, Matt Adams, Gary Sanchez
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, JT Realmuto, Jason Castro, Pedro Severino
Mike Moustakas, MIL ($3700)
The Brewers are another solid team to target tonight, especially the lefties against Tanner Roark. The Reds righty has been so-so this year, but still really bad against LHB, allowing a 47% HHR to them with a 5.10 FIP. The Brewers’ lineup is packed with powerful lefties, and Moustakas is one of the headliners with a .360 wOBA and .281 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Jose Altuve (expected to return)
Derek Dietrich, CIN ($2800)
Dietrich is way too cheap as long as he continues to hit cleanup. Jimmy Nelson is a quality pitcher, but he’s making his way back from a major injury and has allowed 1.40 HR/9 to LHB over a two year period. Dietrich has been a revelation this season, with a .403 ISO and 38% HHR against RHP.
Other options – Brian Dozier, Luis Rengifo, Jonathan Schoop
Miguel Sano, MIN ($3600)
This pick is like Cron’s where Sano’s lineup spot has to be good enough to warrant this price tag, but he hit fifth yesterday which is good enough if he’s there again. He has a .242 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and is just one more Twin that you can utilize on this slate in either cash or GPP.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, DJ LeMahieu, Kris Bryant
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR ($2800)
Jose Suarez is an interesting pitcher tonight with a 14% swinging strike rate at the MLB level, but the run prevention should be a big issue with his 5.10 SIERA, and ZiPS projects it to be even worse. Vlad hasn’t reached his full potential yet but he’s hit lefties well for a .393 wOBA thus far this season, and he’s way too cheap for the upside we’ve heard about for the past three years.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Eugenio Suarez, Renato Nunez
Jorge Polanco, MIN ($4000)
Twins, Twins, and more Twins, although FINALLY we have less opportunity cost at SS which makes Polanco less necessary than he would usually be here. If you choose to pay, Polanco is in the midst of a breakout year with a .382 wOBA and .277 ISO against RHP, and Glenn Sparkman is in line to get beat up tonight.
Other options – Trea Turner, Alex Bregman, Adalberto Mondesi, Paul DeJong, Javier Baez
David Fletcher, LAA ($2700)
If Fletcher leads off (which he has been against lefties), he’s an amazing cash value (and the UTIL spot makes it so you can have Polanco too if you want him). Fletcher is a tad cold right now (11.1% HHR last 15), but the Angels once again have a crazy high IRT (5.7 runs) against Clayton Richard and the Blue Jays bullpen which they’ve ripped apart this whole series. Richard has been downright awful this year with a 5.86 SIERA and a higher walk rate than K rate. Fully attack with Angels, who are even deeper with Justin Upton back in the fold.
Other options – Jean Segura, Jonathan Villar, JP Crawford
Mike Trout, LAA ($4800)
Trout should be 90% owned tonight after hitting two homers and seven RBIs yesterday, and it’s not a place you want to be contrarian. He’s sizzling lately with nine hits, four homers and 12 RBI over the last four games, and he has almost a 50% HHR over his last ten. Trout is actually better against righties, but a .438 wOBA and .304 ISO against LHP since last year is still one of the best platoon splits on the slate. He’s a cash lock, and I will own him in 100% of GPPs as well.
Other options – Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper
Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($3300)
It’s back to a too-cheap Schwarb, who has flourished in the leadoff role for the Cubbies. Walker Lockett is being called up for his Mets debut tonight, and he has been BAD at AAA. Lockett has a 3.28 ERA but it’s been all luck as he also has a 5.07 FIP, and his K rate is a meager 8.9%. Schwarber is still sizzling too, with a 42.5% HHR over his last 15 games.
Other options – Mallex Smith, Adam Eaton, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Randal Gruchuk, Lourdes Gurriel, Aaron Hicks, Carlos Gonzalez, Curtis GrandersonFantasy Baseball