I hope everyone found success last night with their DFS lineups. I was unable to play for the second night in a row but I’ll be back on tonight for the main slate (which this article will cover). If you can’t wait that long to get your fix, both sites have a seven-game early slate with some intriguing matchups. We have some really interesting pitching decisions to couple with our Coors bats this evening, so let’s get right to it. I’ll see all our subs later in chat, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Zack Greinke, ARI ($9100)
First off, let me make it clear that in no way do I think Greinke will outscore Verlander and deGrom (even though he can). However, their matchups are really difficult (even though Mookie Betts is on the DL for Boston), and Greinke has by far the softest opponent of the trio. The Marlins rank 28th in wRC+ against RHP (Boston and Chicago are both top three) and they have the eighth highest K rate against righties. Greinke’s innings are solid, and his 3.3 IRTA is beautiful for cash games. Greinke will also help you fit in Coors bats much more easily.
Other options – Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom
Garrett Richards, LAA ($8000)
Garrett Richards and Chris Archer are the two values I’m most interested in tonight for GPPs, and Richards’ $800 savings make him the easy call of the two (DK is tougher). Texas is a weak lineup against RHP, ranking 25th in wRC+ with the third highest K rate, and Richards’ peripherals have been elite (26% K rate, 52% GB rate) despite too many walks and a lot of hard contact. Richards is a -170 favorite with a 3.5 IRTA, which rival all three studs priced at the top.
Other options – Chris Archer, David Price, Walker Buehler, Marco Gonzales, Andrew Suarez, Matt Harvey (gulp)
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Cody Bellinger, LAD ($3400)
I’m not even bothering mentioning anyone priced above Bellinger for cash purposes, as he’s a lock for me this evening. At $3400, he’s not only the top option at the position but vastly underpriced given the fact that he’s about to face a righty in Coors Field. The Dodgers currently have an IRT of 5.6 runs (highest on the slate), and Bellinger has a career .277 ISO against RHP. Don’t overthink this one – you have the UTIL spot if you want two first basement (Max Muncy is here too for too cheap a price tag).
Other options – Brandon Belt, Paul Goldschmidt, Eric Hosmer, Carlos Santana, Max Muncy, Justin Bour, Yuli Gurriel
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, Buster Posey, Evan Gattis
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4400)
I’m not passing on Joe Panik in cash (see below), but Altuve is crushing the ball right now (40% hard hit rate last ten games) and is facing a lefty. Admittedly, David Price is a good pitcher but Altuve has beaten up on LHP for a .400 wOBA and .197 ISO over the past four years. He’s an elite GPP option tonight as many will be on D.J. LeMahieu and Joe Panik.
Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera
Joe Panik, SF ($2000)
D.J. LeMahieu is awfully enticing in Coors Field at only $3000, but Panik is a minimum-priced gift. He returned from the DL last night and led off against Nick Pivetta, so one would think he’ll be in there again against Vince Velasquez tonight. Panik doesn’t offer much in the way of power upside, but he has a very usable .340 wOBA and .160 ISO against RHP over the past three years. It doesn’t seem like there’s any logic to fading him in cash at $2000.
Other options – D.J. LeMahieu, Dee Gordon, Logan Forsythe, Rougned Odor
Justin Turner, LAD ($3700)
Turner is another Dodger I’m locking in tonight and not looking back. German Marquez has been far worse against same-handed hitting, allowing a .352 wOBA and .234 ISO to them since the beginning of last year. Turner is a reverse-split hitter with a .378 wOBA and .206 ISO against RHP over the last three seasons, and the Coors Field effect is only going to boost these numbers. He too is underpriced on FD at $3700.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, Eugenio Suarez
Cory Spangenberg, SD ($2000)
Spangenberg offers another min-priced play, and he’s viable if you want to get some top Coors bats in alongside Verlander or deGrom in GPPs. He’s not the greatest hitter, but he has a 29% hard hit rate over his last 15 games and is facing off against Matt Harvey who has allowed a 38.9% hard hit rate to all batters since the beginning of last year and is incapable of missing bats anymore. Spangenberg has been getting some decent lineup spots lately as well (second, fifth, sixth).
Other options – Kyle Seager, Maikel Franco, Matt Duffy
Chris Taylor, LAD ($3700)
Taylor was one of my favorite plays yesterday and he feasted on Rockie pitching, putting up 41.4 FD points. The only issue with Taylor this evening is that he generally doesn’t lead off against righties, and he could fall as far to seventh in the order tonight. If this isn’t the case, he’s well worth using in cash as he’s put up respectable numbers against same-handed pitching, and German Marquez has allowed 1.35 HR/9 to RHB over the last three years.
Other options – Trevor Story, Carlos Correa
Nick Ahmed, ARI ($2500)
If Taylor gets a less-than-stellar lineup spot, we luckily have Nick Ahmed to fall back on. It’s likely he hits in the top two against the lefty Caleb Smith, and Ahmed has a very usable .182 ISO against LHP over the past three years. Caleb Smith has been solid this season, but he’s getting a big time park downgrade and has allowed a .175 ISO to RHB so far in his young career.
Other options – Jose Peraza, Daniel Robertson, Scott Kingery
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($5100)
I’d prefer to get my Blackmon exposure in GPPs, but his track record against RHP in Coors Field really speaks for itself. Walker Buehler has been stellar so far in his rookie season, which has led to an IRT of 4.9 runs for the Rockies in Coors (lowest I’ve seen there in awhile). Blackmon’s hard hit data is up, and he has over a .400 wOBA and .280 ISO against RHP since the beginning of 2016.
Other options – Mike Trout, Carlos Gonzalez, George Springer, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger
Joc Pederson, LAD ($3000)
The pricing for the Dodgers hitters on FD is simply ridiculous tonight, and you should conceivably be targeting at least three of them in cash. Even if you decide to pay ALL the way up for Verlander as your SP, you can still fit in Dodgers bats, and Joc should definitely be one of them. He’s been leading off against righties lately, and he has a .232 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season. Marquez has been better against lefties, but this price tag is far too cheap to ignore.
Other options – Matt Kemp (also an incredible value), Justin Upton, Joey Gallo, Shin Soo Choo, Andrew McCutchen, Gerardo Parra, Adam Duvall, Jesse Winker, David Peralta, Jarrod Dyson, Chris Owings, Travis Jankowski, Aaron Altherr
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