It’s a new week, and I’m officially streaking on FanDuel. Of course, I’m streaking the wrong way on DraftKings, so let’s get a win on both sites tonight. We have some strong pitching at the top but almost NOTHING on the bottom end, which will complicate things given the fact that there’s a Coors slate on tap as well. FTA+ subs should join us in chat tonight, and if you’re not a part of our family, give us a look FREE for the first month! I’m also on twitter @jac3600.
Trevor Bauer, CLE ($11,200)
Bauer and Gerrit Cole are literally even tonight (which is kinda cool since they’re former college teammates), and I would prioritize one in cash given the immense lack of depth at the SP position. The fact that Jacob deGrom is pitching in Coors makes this an easier decision, so we’ll be on the hunt for hitting value. Bauer and Cole both have elite matchups, but the tiebreaker for me goes to Bauer’s recent form. Bauer has an incredible 64 strikeouts over his last six starts (including 12 against them same White Sox last start). He’s a -240 favorite with a 3.4 IRTA and his high IP threshold is perfect for FD’s scoring. If you desperately need the extra $200 for a hitter, going with Gerrit Cole is just fine.
Other options – Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke
Jacob deGrom, NYM ($9000)
DeGrom is a tournament priority for me tonight. If this game was in New York instead of Colorado, he would easily be the top play over both Bauer and Cole. Obviously the Coors effect takes away a lot of deGrom’s safety, but there’s three things to keep in mind. One, the Rockies’ IRT of 4.5 runs is about as low as you’ll ever see at Coors Field. Two, they still rank dead last in wRC+ against RHP (by quite a lot). Three, deGrom is arguably the best pitcher in the league this season after Scherzer, with a 33% K rate and 1.98 FIP. If you’re REALLY risk tolerant, I’d say deGrom is cash viable, but there’s not really big bats to prioritize to justify his savings. Therefore, I’ll be spending up for one of the two above.
Other options – Kenta Maeda, Caleb Smith, Nick Pivetta, Ian Kennedy, Andrew Suarez
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($4400)
Goldy is a GPP-play only as he’s getting a massive park downgrade going from Arizona to L.A., but he’s still killing the ball with a 47% hard hit rate over the last 15 games. Jaime Barria has been surprisingly good in the majors given the fact that his minor league peripherals did not predict this, but there’s still room for major regression as he’s outpitched his peripherals (2.61 ERA, 4.42 xFIP) and allowed a 41% FB rate (50% in AAA prior to his promotion).
Other options – Anthony Rizzo, Cody Bellinger, Edwin Encarnacion
Eric Thames, MIL ($3300)
I chose Greg Bird over Thames yesterday, which didn’t cost me in cash but likely robbed me of GPP money (Thames double-donged). He’s still $3300 which is far too cheap against a sub-par pitcher in Trevor Williams. Pittsburgh is generally a lesser hitting environment, but the temperature is projected to be almost 90 which really should help the ball fly. Thames is a streaky hitter, so expect ownership to be up there tonight. Thames has a .398 wOBA and .297 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Wilmer Flores, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu, Yuli Gurriel, Josh Bell
Catcher values – Gary Sanchez, Buster Posey, Salvador Perez, Devin Mesoraco, Yasmani Grandal
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4300)
Like Goldy, this is an elite GPP but very unnecessary in cash. He’s turned on the SB upside recently, and only has one game in his last 15 where he doesn’t have a hit. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has been good lately but they don’t project that way long term, and Houston comes in with a 4.8 IRT at home (plus they’re on fire as a total offense).
Other options – Whit Merrifield, D.J. LeMahieu
Asdrubal Cabrera, NYM ($3300)
The Mets are a scary proposition despite the fact that they have an IRT of five runs. They’re in Coors which automatically puts them hear the top for cash purposes, but remember we’re talking about the team that ranks last by far in wRC+ against LHP. Ultimately though, Cabrera is way too cheap since Tyler Anderson has allowed a .212 ISO to RHB since the beginning of last year, and Asdrubal will bat in a premier lineup spot.
Other options – Jason Kipnis, Yoan Moncada, Jedd Gyorko, Rougned Odor
Mike Moustakas, KC ($3900)
Like the Mets, the Royals are a lousy offense that is projecting much better today. It’s going to be in the mid-90s in Kansas City tonight and Moose is facing Bartolo Colon and his 5.79 K/9 and 2.29 HR/9 allowed. Colon has been blasted by lefties in recent years, and Moustakas has a .253 ISO against RHP over the last two years.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Todd Frazier, Jake Lamb, Matt Carpenter, Travis Shaw
Colin Moran, PIT ($2700)
Moran has been hitting cleanup for the Pirates recently and he’s homered in back to back games. He’s not a great hitter so I still suggest paying up more at this position, but Junior Guerra is still prone to lefty power (1.32 HR/9 allowed to them since the beginning of last year). Remember also that the hitting environment in enhanced tonight in Pittsburgh due to the heat.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, Yolmer Sanchez, Hunter Dozier
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4900)
Dylan Covey is officially the biggest troll in the game. Last year he was a premier attack point as he had a 7.20 FIP, 2.57 HR/9 allowed, and a 5.27 K/9. This year he’s improved beyond belief with a 2.16 FIP and an 8.41 K/9, and he’s yet to allow a homer. I can’t fully get on board with this success story, and Vegas agrees as the Indians have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.1 runs. The Indians bats are still priced out of cash but I will be stacking them in GPP, especially since I think people will be scared of Covey’s recent dominance.
Other options – Carlos Correa, Didi Gregorius, Trea Turner, Chris Taylor, Jurickson Profar
Amed Rosario, NYM ($3100)
I have to mention Rosario since he’s either going to hit first or ninth which obviously alters his projection a great deal. If he’s ninth he’s a great GPP play in Coors and as part of bottom-of-the-order Mets stacks. If he’s first, he’s a cash lock as the leadoff hitter in Colorado. In his young career, Rosario has a .187 ISO against LHP which would be amplified in Coors Field.
Other options – Nick Ahmed, Scott Kingery, Alcides Escobar
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4500)
I’m not really enamored with any of the top options in the outfield this evening, so I’ll bring up Blackmon. He’s not discounted at all for his tough matchup, but on any other day he’d likely be the top overall hitter due to his immense splits and the fact that he’s in Coors. People will be terrified of Jacob deGrom (rightfully so), and you should get Blackmon at single-digit ownership in GPPs. Remember one thing, too – the Mets bullpen ranks dead last in xFIP in the month of June.
Other options – Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, George Springer, Rhys Hoskins, Christian Yelich, Shin Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham
Jose Bautista, NYM ($3000)
Gross. Even considering this guy at this point makes my stomach turn, but he’s cheap and hitting in Coors Field which automatically vaults him up the rankings. Bautista still has a .199 ISO against LHP over the last four years despite the sharp decline in his skill set since the beginning pf last season, and he’s facing a lefty that has really been struggling with power allowed.
Other options – Joey Gallo, Delino DeShields, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Jay Bruce, Austin Meadows, Corey Dickerson, Alex Gordon, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Ryan Braun, Odubel Herrera, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin