FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 6/17/19

Mike Trout of the Anaheim Angels diving head first into 3rd base

What a weekend! My cash lineup surpassed 240 on FanDuel last night, which not only places first in all double-ups but also garnered an 8th-place finish in the $25 SE and a 12th place finish in the $50 SE. Needless to say, I’ve got a little extra coin in my pocket as we gear up for a new week with tonight’s 12-game slate. I’ll be in chat tonight helping all of our subs, and make sure you follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Kenta Maeda, LAD ($8600)

This is an odd slate, as the higher priced pitchers are either overperforming (Soroka) or are simply in horrible matchups for their price tags (Castillo, Berrios). Therefore, I think Maeda checks in as the “top” overall pitcher going, even though he comes with innings risk (this matters on FD with the quality start being rewarded). Maeda is often prone to the quick hook but he also has immense upside in this game given that the Giants are ranked 27th in wOBA and 26th in ISO against RHP with the 11th highest K rate. His win odds today are the best on the slate at -240, and his 3.4 IRTA is beaten by only Miles Mikolas (more on him below). At his price, you can take on the innings/pitch count risk.

Other options – Mike Soroka, Luis Castillo, Patrick Corbin

VALUE PLAY

Miles Mikolas, STL ($7000)

People may be sour on Mikolas for this game given that fact that these same Marlins got to him for five runs in five IP during his last start, but we really have to dig deeper than the “last time out, he sucked” narrative. Mikolas does not miss bats (17.5% K rate), but he has an elite 4.6% BB rate along with a 50% GB rate which really helps to keep his pitch count down (therefore making it so he logs enough innings to make a QS a high likelihood). The Marlins are still an elite matchup for RHP, ranking 29th in wOBA with the sixth highest K rate against. Mikolas is a -220 with a 3.2 IRTA (lowest on the slate). He’s absolutely in play for cash games, and helps fit many big bats in.

Other options – Masahiro Tanaka, Joey Lucchesi, Mike Fiers (ick), Danny Duffy (double ick), Jhoulys Chacin

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Max Muncy, LAD ($3700)

Here’s a pro tip – when Tyler Beede pitches, attack him. He’s shown signs of hope by striking out over a batter per inning, but his 8.06 ERA, 5.16 SIERA, and 15% BB rate leave tons to be desired. He’s also allowed a 39.1% HHR to all batters this season. Muncy is crushing the ball lately with a 40% HHR over his last 15 games, and he has a .356 wOBA and .239 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.

Other options – Carlos Santana, Freddie Freeman, Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt, Gary Sanchez

VALUE PLAY

Matt Olson, OAK ($3400)

If the A’s were in Baltimore, we’d see an IRT surpassing six runs, and it really says something about the Baltimore pitching staff that Oakland has an IRT of 5.4 runs despite being in a pitchers’ park. Andrew Cashner has limited at least a bit of his damage this year thanks to a 50.7% GB rate, but we’re talking about a pitcher who ranks in the bottom five in SIERA for all qualified pitchers over a three-year span. He’s allowed a 42.5% HHR to LHB this season, and Olson has beaten on RHP for a .396 wOBA, .242 ISO, and a 50.6% HHR. He’s too cheap.

Other options – CJ Cron, Justin Smoak, Matt Adams, Albert Pujols

Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, JT Realmuto, Jonathan Lucroy, Yadier Molina

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

NONE

Ozzie Albies is OK in full Braves GPP stacks given how the whole Atlanta team in hitting right now, but as usual, second base is a position to save money on.

VALUE PLAY

Cavan Biggio, TOR ($2900)

Biggio is leading off more than he’s not lately, and he has a robust 45.4% HHR since being called up. Toronto has an IRT of five runs despite being a below average hitting team against RHP, and Felix Pena really struggles with flyballs (1.55 HR/9 allowed to LHB over last three years) despite a 13.5% swinging strike rate.

Other options – Brian Dozier, Cesar Hernandez, Jason Kipnis

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE

Tommy La Stella, LAA ($3000)

It’s our first foray into the Angels, who are the top rated team by a lot and the only one to have an IRT north of six runs. La Stella has been magical this season, blowing away his career highs with a .371 wOBA, .233 ISO, and only a 7.9% K rate. Edwin Jackson is COMPLETELY washed up, and it’s a wonder the Blue Jays continue to run him out there every five days. Jackson has an 8.01 FIP this year while allowing 3.28 HR/9. Yikes.

Other options – Matt Chapman, Anthony Rendon, Eugenio Suarez, Justin Turner, Matt Carpenter, Jose Ramirez, Vlad Guerrero

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4100)

As usual, the SS position is loaded. The Indians rank well below average against RHP in all categories this year, but Lindor is certainly not contributing to that disappointment. Even with missing the beginning of the year, Lindor is already up to a combined 20 homers and steals, and has a .382 wOBA and .246 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Lance Lynn has been decent this year, but he’s still allowed 1.56 HR/9 to LHB over a three-year period and the Texas bullpen is awful too.

Other options – Trea Turner, Jorge Polanco, Adalberto Mondesi

VALUE PLAY

Marcus Semien, OAK ($3400)

We’re used to targeting Semien only in platoon matchups, but he’s now the leadoff hitter no matter the opposing pitcher. Semien is rocking an .803 OPS and his walk rate is up to 11.1% (both career bests). As the leadoff hitter against Andrew Cashner and the bottom ranked BAL bullpen, Semien offers solid value.

Other options – Jean Segura, Didi Gregorius, David Fletcher

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Mike Trout, LAA ($4600)

This honestly may be the most comfortable I’ve been all year pressing the 100% lock button on a hitter. We have arguably the best hitter in baseball going against arguably the worst pitcher in baseball, and I don’t see how you don’t get production. Since the beginning of 2017, Trout has a .443 wOBA and .334 ISO against RHP, and Jackson has allowed well over two homers per nine to RHB in that span. Trout is also hot, with a 37.5% HHR over his last 15 games. Trout will be on EVERY one of my teams tonight, GPPs included.

Other options – Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Cody Bellinger, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Austin Meadows, Juan Soto, Khris Davis

VALUE PLAY

Joc Pederson, LAD ($3200)

Pederson can be maddening to own, but his price has fallen too far to ignore. Pederson has a .384 wOBA and .302 ISO against RHP this season, and as I’ve said, Tyler Beede has been overmatched at the MLB level so far in his career. Pederson is easily on pace for a career high in homers, and he also has a BB rate over 10%.

Other options – Kole Calhoun, Jorge Soler, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel, Randal Grichuk, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Yasiel Puig, Jordan Luplow, Adam Eaton, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields

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