Even with yesterday’s graduation dominating most of my evening, I still landed decisive profits on both sites. Let’s keep it rolling today, where we have a Coors-filled eight-game slate later on, and some fun early action before that. I’ll be back in chat later, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($9000)
Last start we saw Syndergaard’s true skills realized, and he’s still too cheap on FD given his underlying peripherals. Noah has a SIERA under 4.00 to go along with an excellent 12% swinging strike rate. The matchup against the Cardinals is average, but they’re a very right-hand dominant team, and Syndergaard’s skills and price tag don’t match. I’m still fine going cheaper than him with Marquez (see below), but if you’re uncomfortable with Coors Field Noah is perfectly fine in all formats.
Other options – Walker Buehler, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Minor
German Marquez, COL ($7000)
Deploying a Rockies pitcher in Coors is certainly not for the faint of heart, especially as it comes 24 hours after the two teams put up 28 runs there. However, Marquez is FAR too cheap for his skill set, which includes a 13.4% swinging strike rate, 5% BB rate, and 54.2% GB rate. The Padres have an IRT of five runs since they’re in Coors, but they rank 24th in wOBA against RHP with the highest K rate against them as well. Think of the bats you can get in, and honestly Marquez could outscore any pitcher on the slate, price aside.
Other options – Aaron Nola, Frankie Montas, Yu Darvish, Tanner Roark, Sean Newcomb
Gary Sanchez/Luke Voit, NYY ($4100/$3900)
There will be plenty of Rockies in this article so we’ll take the opportunity to highlight some of the other teams in good spots this evening. Sanchez and Voit have been run producing machines for the Yankees this year and they carry an IRT of 5.1 runs (tied for third highest on the slate). Both have L15 hard hit rates approaching 30%, and Reynaldo Lopez has a 5.07 SIERA along with a horrendous 29% GB rate this season while also allowing 2.35 HR/9 to them.
Other options – Daniel Murphy, Peter Alonso, CJ Cron, Max Muncy, Eric Hosmer
Mark Canha, OAK ($2800)
Canha hit second yesterday and if he does again he’s a great value (despite the goose egg last night). Stephen Piscotty will miss a week for the A’s so it’s possible we get consistently good lineup spots for Canha who has a .243 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. Wade LeBlanc is another flyball pitcher (40.1% FB rate since 2017), and he has a 4.66 SIERA this year.
Other options – Matt Olson, Joey Votto
Catcher values – Chris Iannetta, JT Realmuto, Austin Hedges, Kyle Farmer
2B continues to be devoid of anything near the top end, and that’s amplified on smaller slates. Use this spot for value.
Gleyber Torres, NYY ($3300)
Torres’ lineup spot has been in flux lately, but he’s fine wherever he hits at this price. He’s quietly been excellent this year, especially against same-handed pitching, where he’s posted a .270 ISO and 45% HHR this season. Throw in a 35% HHR over the last 15 games and you have a solid value play for an offense expected to succeed.
Other options – Jonathan Schoop, Brendan Rodgers, Cesar Hernandez, Rougned Odor
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4800)
You need one of Arenado or Story tonight in cash, and if you’re using Marquez like me, you’ll likely be using both. Eric Lauer has a 6.5% swinging strike rate this season and pitching to contact in Coors Field is a recipe for disaster. Arenado’s accolades against LHP would take an entire article itself, and the Rockies (predictably) lap the other offenses with a 6.5 IRT.
Other options – DJ LeMahieu, Matt Chapman, Miguel Sano
Eugenio Suarez, CIN ($3400)
I’m spending up for Arenado, but I love Suarez in GPPs, and I wouldn’t even mind using him in the UTIL spot in cash. Mike Minor is a tough draw given the way he’s pitched this season, but Suarez is a known lefty-killer with a .386 wOBA and .270 ISO against them since last year. He also has a .259 ISO and 53% HHR against them this season, and Cincinnati is a premier hitters’ park.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Asdrubal Cabrera, JD Davis
Trevor Story, COL ($4700)
Story is the biggest lock hitter on the slate, even more than Arenado given that there’s more depth at 3B than at SS. All Story has done against LHP since last year is post a .400 wOBA and .308 ISO, and he has over a 50% HHR against them this season. He also runs. You know what to do.
Other options – Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, Jorge Polanco
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3500)
Semien’s HHR is down over the last 15 games (18.2%), but he’s a solid GPP play against a mediocre lefty that relies on flyballs. Semien hasn’t been as good against lefties this year, but he has a .187 ISO and 38.2% HHR since the beginning of last season, and he’ll lead off for an A’s team with an IRT over five.
Other options – Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura, Jose Iglesias
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4300)
I don’t care that this is a L/L matchup. No pitcher has been able to get Blackmon out lately, as he has 14 hits, five homers, and ten RBIs over his last five games with a 57% HHR in that span. If playing Marquez at SP, it’s conceivable to be able to get all three of the big Rockies in your cash lineup. If you can’t, I do think Arenado and Story take precedence, but Blackmon is not an easy player to fade. At the very least, go heavy in GPP here.
Other options – Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, Wil Myers, Khris Davis, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto, David Dahl
Aaron Hicks, NYY ($3600)
Hicks is too cheap for his context. He’ll hit in the top four of the Yankees lineup and have the platoon edge against Reynaldo Lopez who has allowed a .395 wOBA and 1.95 HR/9 to LHB this season with only a 17% K rate. Since the beginning of last year, Hicks has a .348 wOBA and .203 ISO against RHP.
Other options – Ian Desmond, Nick Senzel, Yasiel Puig, Clint Frazier, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields, Kyle Schwarber, Jeff McNeil, Jorge Soler, Mallex Smith, Alex VerdugoFantasy Baseball