After the annoying abbreviated slate yesterday where I’m sure we all dumped a little bit of GPP money, we’re back to a full 15-game slate and PLENTY of offense and pitching to build around. Lineups will play a huge part of building tonight, as the presence of value will ultimately determine if Corey Kluber is spend-worthy. I will be back in chat tonight helping all our FTA+ subs wade through the noise, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Corey Kluber, CLE ($12,000)
Kluber is priced more than appropriately, but you’re paying for the safety over the tougher matchups/contexts for James Paxton (facing the Red Sox) and Charlie Morton (almost 100 degrees in KC, been shaky lately). Kluber has been amazing lately, striking out no less than seven batters in each of his last five outings while posting a 2.68 FIP. The Twins are middle of the road in both wRC+ and K rate, but they have an IRT of 2.9 runs and Kluber is a -230 favorite (largest on the slate).
Other options – James Paxton, Charlie Morton, Ross Stripling (ALL are cash viable if Kluber becomes too price restrictive)
Zack Godley, ARI ($7200)
The park environment is not ideal, but there is no shame whatsoever in attacking the Mets with at least a semi-decent pitcher (which, of course, Godley is). The Mets have scored 90 runs over their last 12 games. Let that sink in for a minute. They couldn’t get it going last night against Matt Koch who is a gas can and they’re still without their best hitter in Yoenis Cespedes (they might also be without Jay Bruce who looks lost anyway). The Mets have fallen all the way to 28th in wRC+ against RHP, and their K rate is rising as well.
Other options – Tyler Skaggs, Kevin Gausman, Julio Teheran, Clayton Richard, Jose Urena, Reynaldo Lopez, Jonathan Loaisigia
Joey Votto, CIN ($4300)
Votto busted so badly the other night when I had him as a lock, but he’s the top play again despite a park downgrade in Pittsburgh. Votto is an elite hitter and is facing Chad Kuhl who is a severe wide-splits hitter (which may spell trouble for him since the Reds routinely throw out six lefties). Kuhl has allowed a .369 wOBA and .226 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year, and Votto has a higher walk rate than K rate.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Eric Hosmer, Edwin Encarnacion
Jose Abreu, CHW ($3300)
Abreu is vastly underpriced for tonight, and he’s facing off against a subpar pitcher in a positive hitting environment. Mike Fiers has allowed .351 wOBA and .217 ISO to same-handed hitting since the beginning of last year, and Abreu’s got a 27% hard hit rate over the last ten games. I can’t pass him at such a cheap price tag.
Other options – Ian Desmond, Eric Thames, Greg Bird, Justin Bour, Josh Bell
Catcher values – Gary Sanchez, Yasmani Grandal, Chris Iannetta, Tucker Barnhart
D.J. LeMahieu, COL ($3700)
The Rockies righties should be treated as if it’s ALMOST a Coors slate tonight. They have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.5 runs in the Heat of Texas, and they’re facing a lefty (Yohander Mendez) who is making his MLB debut. Mendez has looked horrible in AAA this year with a 5.26 ERA and 1.75 HR/9 allowed, and is backed by a lousy bullpen. All Rockies RHB are in play in all formats, and LeMahieu will lead off and likely find five PAs.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, Scooter Gennett
Yoan Moncada, CHW ($3200)
I’m a fan of the White Sox tonight even though they project as one of the worst offenses in the league. Moncada should lead off against Mike Fiers, and he’s been far better from the left side in his young career. Fiers has been equally bad against LHB, allowing a .211 ISO to them since the beginning of last year, and the Tigers bullpen ranks 29th in xFIP and last in ISO allowed.
Other options – Daniel Murphy, Josh Harrison, Ben Zobrist, Rougned Odor
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4600)
Arenado is who I want to be my “one big spend” tonight (which will be difficult if I decide to play Kluber). I just finished detailing the amazing matchup on tap for the Rox, and Arenado has brutalized LHP for a .292 ISO over the past three seasons. Arenado has a 26% hard hit rate over his last ten games and and temps in Texas will be in the mid-90s. Yes please.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant, Alex Bregman, Travis Shaw
Matt Davidson/Yolmer Sanchez, CHW ($2800/$2700)
If you’re not paying for Arenado, the White Sox route works too. Neither Davidson nor Sanchez are great hitters but the matchup is fine, and Davidson in particular is rocking a career .246 ISO this season so far. I’d be wary of rostering more than two White Sox in cash (Abreu and Moncada get priority over these guys), but I’d certainly endorse one of these guys if you need the savings and are paying for Kluber.
Other options – Jake Lamb, Jeimer Candelario, Anthony Rendon, Matt Chapman, Colin Moran
Trevor Story, COL ($4300)
If we’re fully on board with the Rockies offense tonight, Story becomes the top play as well. His power upside is immense (especially against LHP where he’s rocked a .300 ISO since the beginning of last year), and Yohander Mendez’s failures extend to his K rate which is a meager 17.5%. Story fits the GPP mold a little more than cash, but he’s a key part of Rockies stacks, and is a great one-off with double-dong upside.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Didi Gregorius, Manny Machado, Trea Turner, Chris Taylor
Marcus Semien, OAK ($2900)
Tyler Skaggs is an above-average pitcher relative to most of the other options on this slate, but the price tag is great for Semien and he has a .191 ISO against LHP since the beginning of 2016. Oakland’s home park is not the greatest context, but the A’s still maintain at least a usable 4.2 IRT. The only issue is that he’s been randomly dropped to sixth or seventh in the order recently, which would really ding his perspective. Keep an eye on the lineups.
Other options – Tim Anderson, Scott Kingery, Zack Cozart
Mike Trout, LAA ($5600)
Mike Trout is in the worst hitting environment of all the top outfielders but his skillset and recent hitting data propel him to the top. Trout has a 40% hard hit rate the last 15 games, a 52% mark the last ten, and seven hits and four homers the last three games. He also has a .445 wOBA and .331 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last year, and Chris Bassitt is not a good pitcher. There’s no reason Trout won’t continue his binge tonight.
Other options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Charlie Blackmon, Bryce Harper, Adam Eaton, George Springer, Christian Yelich, Rhys Hoskins, Michael Brantley, Matt Kemp, Shin Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara
Brett Gardner, NYY ($3200)
As usual, Brett Gardner remains too cheap on FD and he can be used in all formats. The Yankees are at home and Gardner will be leading off for a team with an IRT of 5.3 runs, and Nathan Eovaldi has allowed a .360 wOBA and .250 ISO against LHP in his injury-riddled last two seasons. His ability to steal bases enhances his floor, as does the powerful lineup behind him.
Other options – Carlos Gonzalez, Austin Meadows, Joey Gallo, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Leonys Martin, Nick Castellanos, Jason Heyward, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Harrison Bader, Daniel Palka, Derek Dietrich, Kike Hernandez