FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 6/14/19


Happy Friday! We have a full 15-gamer on tap for this one, and heavy starting pitching vs Coors (and other offense) decisions will have to be made. I unfortunately will not be on chat tonight as it’s our High School Graduation night, but I will post my cores in chat by 5:45 EST and will be in chat before then. Our top-notch crew will be ready for you, and be sure to follow us on twitter @FanTeamAdvice (and me @jac3600).

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Gerrit Cole, HOU ($12,000)

There are some good pitchers that can save you money, which looks enticing given the fact that the extra money can give you Coors bats. However, I think that Cole is SO far above them that he’s worth spending up for. The 3.72 ERA is what it is because Cole has been allowing more homers than usual, but don’t pay any attention to that. Cole’s SIERA is 2.58, and his K rate is an unreal 39% (which is backed by an elite 16.8% swinging strike rate). The Blue Jays rank 27th in wOBA and RHP with the sixth highest K rate, so I think double digit Ks are coming even if Cole happens to let in 3-4 runs. Fading those bats are going to be tough, but I view Cole as a priority spend on this slate as of now.

Other options – Max Scherzer, Lucas Giolito, Blake Snell

VALUE PLAY

Andrew Heaney, LAA ($8900)

Heaney is not without risk, so I don’t like the thought of bypassing Cole in cash just to get more bats, but I will have tons of Heaney shares in GPP. It’s a small sample size this year, but Heaney has come out of the gate absolutely blazing. He has a 2.30 SIERA, a 41.8% K rate, and an amazing 19.1% swinging strike rate so far this season. There is no way those numbers are sustainable long term (it would mean he’s the best pitcher in baseball), but they certainly can play today against a Rays team that packs punch but also has the highest K rate in the league against LHP (28.6%).

Other options – Eduardo Rodriguez, Kyle Gibson, Chris Bassitt, Tyler Mahle, Max Fried, CC Sabathia

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Eric Hosmer, SD ($3800)

The Rockies are the top offense with a 6.5 IRT, but the Padres come in right behind them with an IRT of 6.1 thanks to a matchup in Coors with Jeff Hoffman. The Rockies righty is awful on all counts even though he’s surprisingly pitched to a 3.96 SIERA this season despite an 8.06 ERA. Hoffman has a 25% K rate this season but his career mark sits at 17%, and he’s still allowed 2.10 HR/9 to all batters this year. Hosmer has pretty much disappointed since becoming a Padre, but he has an adequate .188 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.

Other options – Freddie Freeman, Daniel Murphy, Luke Voit, Carlos Santana, CJ Cron, Gary Sanchez

VALUE PLAY

Austin Hedges, SD ($3000)

I wish Hedges was a little cheaper given the fact that we likely won’t see him hit higher than seventh, but he’s still firmly in play for a San Diego team that really lines up to succeed tonight. The righties in particular look good against Hoffman who has posted reverse splits in his career, and has been especially bad since the beginning of last year (.414 wOBA, 48.9% HHR allowed).

Other options – Joey Votto, Michael Chavis, Mark Canha, Miguel Cabrera, Jesus Aguilar

Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, JT Realmuto, Roberto Perez, Tony Wolters

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Mike Moustakas, MIL ($4000)

This is strictly a GPP play and it’s based solely on how hot Moustakas has been. Over the past ten games, he has eight homers with a 46.4% HHR, and will take on a lousy pitcher (Drew Pomeranz) despite that it’s a L/L matchup. He’s the ultimate GPP upside play with almost no ownership on this slate.

Other options – None

VALUE PLAY

Jose Peraza, CIN ($2200)

Nick Senzel has come along and taken away any hope that Peraza will ever lead off, but on this slate he’s still usable as a pure punt. The Reds have an IRT of 5.2 runs against Drew Smyly who has a 6.30 xFIP and has allowed three (yes, THREE) homers per nine innings. I know Peraza isn’t the guy to exploit that kind of power, but he’s cheap access to one of the better offenses on the slate.

NOTE: Jesse Chavez is now slated to open this game. It doesn’t diminsh the matchup, but does take away the platoon edge.

Other options – Gleyber Torres, Brendan Rodgers, Derek Dietrich, Rougned Odor

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4700)

It’s Arenado in Coors, which means he’s the automatic top play. The Rockies have an IRT of 6.5 runs, and are facing Cal Quantrill who has allowed a 43% HHR this season. He’s fully in play in all formats, but not a lock considering we have superb values.

Other options – Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Anthony Rendon, Miguel Sano

VALUE PLAY

Jose Ramirez, CLE ($3000)

They’ll yell at me in chat for this, but I’m back on Jose Ramirez. The hard hit rate is right in line with last season even though the results are nowhere near, and Ryan Carpenter has been one of the best matchups to attack this season. Carpenter has struggled to a 5.63 FIP and 5.27 SIERA in 29 IP, and is incapable of missing bats (14% K rate). I’m fully on board with an almost-MVP at this price.

Other options – Eugenio Suarez, Matt Carpenter, Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Todd Frazier

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Manny Machado, SD ($4000)

Machado double-donged yesterday in a much worse matchup than this, and I love going back to him tonight as he’s a reverse-split hitter against a reverse-split pitcher. Machado has a 42% HHR this season (39.7% against RHP) and his prices are just too low compared to his counterparts at the position.

Other options – Trevor Story, Fernando Tatis, Francisco Lindor, Alex Bregman, Jorge Polanco

VALUE PLAY

Tim Anderson, CHW ($3500)

The Yankees bullpen makes it so White Sox hitters are touchy, but Anderson is a solid play if he hits second again. CC Sabathia has really learned how to limit hard contact, but Anderson has blazing speed along with a .177 ISO against LHP since 2017. He’s more a GPP play because opportunity cost is sky high at the SS position (see the studs above), but one that you’ll get with upside at low ownership.

Other options – Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura, Jonathan Villar

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4300)

Blackmon is my top overall hitter on the slate, and the one big bat I’d try to prioritize (if possible – SS might make it difficult). He has been crushing the ball lately, with a 47.6% HHR since returning from the DL and ten hits, four homers, and nine RBI over his last four games. He has blasted RHP for a .315 ISO this year, and the sky is the limit tonight.

Other options – David Dahl, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Franmil Reyes, Hunter Renfroe, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Ronald Acuna, Khris Davis, Michael Conforto

VALUE PLAY

Wil Myers, SD ($3600)

If you can’t get up to Charlie Blackmon, Wil Myers ranked near him as far as per-dollar value goes. He is another reverse-split hitter going against Hoffman, and Myers has a 45% HHR over his last 15 games. His batting order spot dances all over the place, so you’ll have to check that before deploying (sixth or seventh would be too low for his price tag on this slate).

Other options – Jordan Luplow, Oscar Mercado, Yasiel Puig, Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, Raimel Tapia, Christin Stewart, Jacoby Jones, Nick Castellanos, Stephen Piscotty, Josh Naylor, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields

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