Sadly my FanDuel winning streak was snapped at three days, but a timely Tucker Barnhart homer in extra innings last night extended my DraftKings winning streak to four in a row. Let’s keep it rolling tonight, and we finally have some 10k+ pitchers to deal with, making the slate a little trickier. As usual, I will be on FTA+ chat helping all our subs, and make sure to follow our constantly updated projections. I’m also on twitter @jac3600.
Trevor Bauer, CLE ($10,200)
Have you seen Trevor Bauer’s game log?? I’ve been thinking him overpriced, but the man has 52 FREAKING STRIKEOUTS over his last five games while only allowing seven earned runs (and four of them in one outing). Gerrit Cole is a fun play with a park upgrade, but Bauer is the clear choice for me in cash games as he faces a right-hand heavy White Sox lineup that has the sixth highest K rate against RHP. Carlos Carrasco dominated them the other day, and I expect similar things from Bauer, who has one of the longest leashes in baseball as far as pitch counts go.
Other options – Gerrit Cole, Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda
Nick Pivetta, PHI ($8000)
Pivetta’s floor is not what Bauer’s is, but he’s pitched very effectively this year and gets the same matchup we loved so much for Aaron Nola yesterday. The Rockies remain dead last in wRC+ against RHP and lose big time upside anytime they’re away from Coors Field, and their IRT sits at 3.8 runs. Pivetta is rocking a 3.34 xFIP with a 27.5% K rate, and that’s more than good enough to make him my main GPP option.
Other options – Cole Hamels, Caleb Smith, Luke Weaver, Andrew Suarez, Tyler Anderson
Joey Votto, CIN ($4300)
It’s tough to fade Votto today. I pointed out yesterday that his -3.4% K/BB ratio is flat out ridiculous, and makes for an excellent cash floor. Votto has also shown immense pop in his career, and has a .419 wOBA and .228 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. His opponent, Jason Hammel, has allowed a .207 ISO to LHB over the last four seasons and has lost all vestiges of K upside. Votto is a top play this evening in all formats.
Other options – Jose Martinez, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Carlos Santana, Matt Adams
Tucker Barnhart, CIN ($2400)
If you’re not paying all the way up for Votto, I might suggest dropping all the way down to Barnhart at near-minimum prices. Barnhart isn’t the greatest hitter but he homered yesterday and has been hitting second in front of Votto as of late, which should mean more fastballs seen. The Reds have an IRT of five runs, and Barnhart is cheap exposure to that.
Other options – Greg Bird, Jose Abreu
Catcher values – Gary Sanchez, Buster Posey, Yadier Molina, Mitch Garver
Brian Dozier, MIN ($4100)
Dozier is a lot more appropriately priced on FD than he is on DK ($4100 on both sites), but he’s still a solid play on FD with the upside he brings. Dozier has a .395 wOBA and .284 ISO against LHP over the past two seasons and is facing Matt Boyd (1.58 HR/9 allowed to RHB in that span) and the 29th ranked Tigers bullpen. It’ll be tough to fit too much pop in if you’re paying for Bauer, but Dozier is worth considering in all formats.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Scooter Gennett
Daniel Murphy, WAS ($2900)
The rust factor has to be considered for Murphy after such a long injury absence, but it’s a good context for Murphy a sub-3k prices. He’s in Yankee Stadium with the short RF porch, and Sonny Gray has been brutally bad at home this season. Murphy is a platoon monster with a .249 ISO against RHP over the last three years, and there’s a chance he gets a lineup boost if Bryce Harper (left game yesterday) sits.
Other options – Yoan Moncada, Whit Merrifield, Jedd Gyorko
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($5200)
The Indians have really let me down the last two days, and it’s not going to get any easier to decipher them tonight as I’m now just as confused as everybody about Dylan Covey’s skills. He was as bad as any pitcher in baseball last year with a 7.71 ERA and more earned runs allowed than strikeouts (19 more to be exact), but he’s really been solid this year (and trolling me at the same time). Ultimately Vegas doesn’t completely trust (4.9 IRT for Indians), so neither do I. Ramirez is one of the best hitters in baseball, and will headline my Cleveland stacks in GPP.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, Mike Moustakas, Eugenio Suarez, Anthony Rendon
Miguel Sano, MIN ($3400)
I’d feel better if Sano was a bit cheaper given how much he’s struggled this year, but the platoon stats still speak for themselves. Sano has crushed LHP for a .362 wOBA and .262 ISO over the last two years, and Matt Boyd is not someone you should feel shy about picking on. I’ll be honest, the 3B position is not an easy one tonight.
Other options – Justin Turner, Evan Longoria, Maikel Franco
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4800)
Lindor seems a bit priced out on FD, but if you feel Dylan Covey SHOULD be as bad as we’ve seen him be, there’s nothing wrong with paying this price tag. Lindor has a .240 ISO this season and is flashing his wheels as well. Much like Ramirez, he’ll probably be more present in my Indians stacks, but he is cash viable.
Other options – Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Didi Gregorius, Chris Taylor
Scott Kingery, PHI ($2400)
Kingery has not been the greatest hitter in his rookie season, but he homered yesterday off Jon Gray and faces a much easier task this evening in Tyler Anderson. The Rockies lefty is generally good at keeping the ball on the ground and is getting a park upgrade, but he’s also allowed a .213 ISO to RHB since the beginning of last year (Coors inflates that). Kingery is cheap enough that any downside he brings is mitigated by the price tag.
Other options – Jose Peraza, Alcides Escobar
Bryce Harper, WAS ($4600)
I have the feeling Harper will sit tonight after he took himself out following two HBPs yesterday, but if he’s in his upside is monstrous in Yankee Stadium against Sonny Gray. The bullpen looms behind Gray, but the Yankee righty has a 7.72 ERA with a .392 wOBA allowed at home versus a 2.38 ERA with a .262 wOBA allowed on the road. Harper has a .412 wOBA and .292 ISO against RHP since the beginning of 2015, and is getting a major park upgrade.
Other options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Michael Brantley, Charlie Blackmon, Tommy Pham, George Springer, Marcell Ozuna
Rhys Hoskins, PHI ($3400)
Hoskins is too cheap for the upside he brings tonight. Thus far in his career, Hoskins has obliterated LHP for a .395 wOBA and .287 ISO, and should continue to hit second for the Phillies against Tyler Anderson. The Phillies come in with an IRT of 4.8 runs, and Hoskins is a virtual lock for me in cash at this price tag.
Other options – Scott Schebler, Adam Eaton, Adam Duvall, Jesse Winker, Aaron Altherr, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Carlos Gonzalez, Nick Castellanos, Harrison Bader, Andrew McCutchen, Gorkys Hernandez, Robbie Grossman, Dustin Fowler