We’re officially streaking! I’m up to three days in a row on both sites so let’s keep it rolling on tonight’s full 15-game card. Once again, there is no pitcher priced over 10k on FD which means we should be able to fit in some nice offensive pieces, and I will be ready to roll with all our FTA+ subs in chat this evening. Be sure to check out our constantly updated projections and cheat sheets, and follow me on twitter @jac3600!
Aaron Nola, PHI ($9500)
Much like Carlos Carrasco yesterday, Nola is the top play and is cheap enough to easily fit into cash along with bats. He has the lowest IRTA on the slate at 3.4 runs and is facing a Rockies squad that ranks dead last in wRC+ against RHP and just isn’t the same team offensively on the road. Nola has been super steady all season and is now rocking a 25% K rate on the season. He’s the clear cut cash play tonight on FD.
Other options – Miles Mikolas, Mike Foltynewicz
Jon Gray, COL ($7500)
The best GPP option is Nola’s opponent. Jon Gray’s 5.66 ERA is nowhere near correct with a 3.12 FIP and 3.21 xFIP (the result of pitching half your games in Coors), and his 25.7% K rate is up from his stellar year last season. The Phillies are a great matchup for Gray as they rank 20th in wRC+ against RHP and have the fourth highest K rate against them. While the win probability remains low (since he’s facing Nola), the K upside is perfect for GPPs (especially with expected higher ownership on Nola).
Other options – Lance McCullers, Eduardo Rodriguez, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Jaime Garcia, Tyler Chatwood
Joey Votto, CIN ($4300)
Votto is getting a slight park downgrade going from Cincinnati to Kansas City but the weather is supposed to be very warm with the wind blowing out, which mitigates a lot of that downside. Ian Kennedy has been a launching pad over the last three years, allowing 1.72 HR/9 overall and a .221 ISO to LHB. Votto’s peripheral stats actually indicate that he’s having an even better season than his MVP push last year, and his -2.1% K/BB ratio is absolutely elite.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion, Yonder Alonso, Jose Abreu, Cody Bellinger
Miguel Cabrera, DET ($2800)
Cabrera seems too cheap at $2800, and strikes me as a solid cash value to help you spend on the bats you REALLY want to get in there. Miggy is certainly on the decline at this stage of his career, but he gets to face Jake Odorizzi who has allowed a .209 ISO to same-handed hitters over the last three years. Cabrera is also posting a 33% hard hit rate since returning from the DL, and the Twins bullpen is 20th in FIP.
Other options – Greg Bird, Justin Smoak, Justin Bour, Josh Bell
Catcher values – Gary Sanchez, Willson Contreras, Yasmani Grandal, Tucker Barnhart
Brian Dozier, MIN ($4100)
Tigers’ pitcher Blaine Hardy is actually showing signs of being a capable pitcher in the majors (3.66 ERA, 3.88 FIP) but there are certain red flags as well. His 16.9% K rate and 36.5% GB rate are far too low to sustain long-term success, and he’s also allowing a lot of hard contact to RHB. Enter Brian Dozier, who has punished LHP over the last three years for a .379 wOBA and .259 ISO, and he’ll be leading off on the road which likely means five plate appearances. The Tigers bullpen is also ranked 29th in FIP.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Ozzie Albies, Yoan Moncada
Joe Panik, SF ($2600)
If you’re looking to almost pure punt the position, Panik should lead off on the road in Miami. He’s not the greatest hitter but he at least has a serviceable .158 ISO against RHP over the last three years and possesses some speed as well. Trevor Richards projects as a decent prospect but he’s allowed a 44% hard hit rate since coming into the league and is backed by a bullpen that ranks 22nd in xFIP.
Other options – Jason Kipnis, Whit Merrifield, Ben Zobrist
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($5200)
Ramirez and Lindor annoyingly dudded last night which was a pain because all the rest of my picks excelled (still had a good day), but you have to strongly consider both Indians bats as the top overall plays on this slate. Ramirez is certainly priced to the fullest but has the lauded matchup against James Shields who is once again a gas can, having only a 16.4% K rate to go along with a 5.08 xFIP. He has allowed almost two homers per nine since the beginning of 2016, and Ramirez has been one of the best hitters in that time. He’s worth his price.
Other options – Kris Bryant, Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Eugenio Suarez, Anthony Rendon
Jake Lamb, ARI ($3100)
Like yesterday, Lamb is an excellent cheaper option if you don’t want to spend all the way up to Ramirez. Lamb is in his home park and has a .232 ISO against RHP over the last three years, and Trevor Williams has allowed a .228 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last season. Lamb should hit third or fourth and is underpriced for the context he brings.
Other options – Justin Turner, Miguel Sano, Jeimer Candelario, Rafael Devers
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4900)
This pick largely echoes yesterday, and the only difference is that there are actually viable values today. This doesn’t stop Lindor from being not only the top play but also the top value against James Shields, and Lindor has really upped his power game this season with a .241 ISO. He also brings a speed component to the game, and the Indians have an IRT of 5.1 runs.
Other options – Manny Machado, Didi Gregorius, Trea Turner, Chris Taylor
Carlos Correa, HOU ($2700)
Um…what? I don’t care how hurt he’s been, or how bad the park environment has been – this is a silly price for someone as talented as Correa. I’m also not remotely scared of Daniel Mengden who is someone skating by with a 16.1% K rate and a 40% GB rate. His walk rate is pristine, and the park helps keep his ERA down, but you can’t pass on a gift like this price tag for a star hitter like Correa.
Other options – Brandon Crawford, Addison Russell, Brock Holt
Mookie Betts, BOS ($4500)
All-world outfielder Mookie Betts has returned, and immediately takes over the top spot against David Hess who has struck out less than five batters per nine innings, allowed 1.84 HR/9, and posted a 5.49 FIP. The Red Sox have an IRT of 5.2 runs, and Betts has a ridiculous .480 wOBA and .381 ISO this season. He’s worth a spend in cash, but I’m still a bit more focused on the Indians top bats as a slight priority.
Other options – Mike Trout, Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Tommy Pham, Lorenzo Cain, Kyle Schwarber
Brett Gardner, NYY ($3100)
We haven’t touched on the Yankees yet, but they do check in with the highest IRT at 5.4 runs even though they’re facing a decent pitcher in Tanner Roark. Yankee Stadium is a left-handed hitters’ paradise, and Gardner has a 34% hard hit rate since the month of May began. He also has six SBs on the season as he slowly creeps up the event categories.