I chickened out on my “Wacha plus all the bats” lineup in favor of the safety of Chris Sale last night. As it turns out, the decision cost me a win on FD, but at least I learned that there’s merit in going “bat heavy” even with an ace like Sale on the mound. Tonight we have a full 15-game slate on tap, but keep an eye on some weather issues in the Northeast again. We’ll be working hard for our subs in chat at FTA+, and I’ll see you guys there.
Patrick Corbin, WAS ($10,300)
After a couple of subpar outings, Corbin’s price has come back down to a range where it should be, and he’s in play even with a negative park and league shift (facing the DH). The White Sox rank 23rd in wOBA against LHP with a middling K rate, and Corbin has pitched a quality start in all but four outings this season. The IRTA of four runs is a tad uncomfortable, but Corbin is a -195 favorite which is the second best on the board, and he’s posted an elite 12.3% swinging strike rate this year.
Other options – Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo
Chris Paddack, SD ($9300)
If there wasn’t an innings concern with James Paxton, he’d easily be my #1 choice here, but the QS on FanDuel goes a long way and Paxton hasn’t gotten past five innings in either start since returning from the DL. This leaves Paddack, who admittedly has some risk associated with him given the fact that he’s allowed a 45.3% HHR this year. That said, there are way more positives than negatives here, as Paddack has pitched to a 3.55 SIERA and a 27.4% K rate. While the batted ball profile is concerning, the Giants’ offense as a whole takes away a lot of that risk given that they rank 26th in wOBA, 27th in OPS, and 28th in runs scored. Im not concerned about Paddack’s last two outings given that they were against the Phillies and Yankees, and his price helps fit in some big bats.
Other options – James Paxton, Martin Perez, Mike Foltynewicz, Jake Arrieta, Jake Junis, Elisier Hernandez
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4600)
Rizzo’s price has dropped $100 for some reason after he homered in Coors yesterday, and he has a better matchup today. Peter Lambert was impressive in his Rockies debut against these same Cubs, but that was on the road where the wind was blowing in. Lambert may get a hard lesson on what it’s like to pitch in Coors Field tonight as the Cubs lead the slate with an IRT of 6.3 runs, and he had pitched to a 4.82 xFIP in AAA this year. Rizzo is crushing the ball lately with a 35.9% HHR over his last 15 games, and he’s got a .391 wOBA and .259 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Luke Voit, Daniel Murphy, Max Muncy, Gary Sanchez, Willson Contreras
Howie Kendrick, WAS ($3000)
Kendrick is priced at $5300 on DK which goes to show you how good he’s been lately (.463 wOBA, 35.3% HHR last 15 games) and honestly he’s been this good all season with a .402 wOBA and .270 ISO. He’s been even better against lefties, posting a .427 wOBA and 1.013 OPS, and FanDuel just doesn’t seem to get it as his price has remained static all season. He’s a fantastic value for a Nationals squad with an IRT of 5.5 runs.
Other options – CJ Cron, Justin Smoak, Ji-Man Choi, Michael Chavis, Joey Votto
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, JT Realmuto, Kurt Suzuki, Yan Gomes, Chris Iannetta
Gleyber Torres, NYY ($3500)
With Jason Vargas now slated to pitch in the night game against Paxton, I’m cheesing out and borrowing yesterday’s analysis on Torres (when FD had him as a SS)…
“Torres seems like the most sensible value of the night with a depressed price tag. He’s got a 44% HHR and an .847 ISO in his rookie season, and it seems like he’s in a smash spot against Jason Vargas who has allowed a 45.5% HHR to RHB since the beginning of last year. He’s just too cheap.”
Other options – Mike Moustakas, Brandon Lowe
Brian Dozier, WAS ($2700)
The Nats seem to be comfortable keeping Dozier in the seventh spot despite his recent play, which takes a little zing out of him as a cash play. However, he’s still cheap enough in that spot with the matchup against Manny Banuelos who has a 5.28 SIERA and a 13.5% BB rate this year. Dozier has quietly been obliterating LHP this season for a .354 ISO and a 1.134 OPS, so he’s cheap enough to play in all formats.
Other options – Addison Russell, Brendan Rodgers, Cesar Hernandez, Brock Holt
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4700)
My sneaky little “Rendon is better than Arenado” play didn’t work out yesterday. I won’t make that mistake again tonight despite the fact that I still love Rendon (and Kris Bryant too). Arenado vs a lefty in Coors is almost automatic, even though Jose Quintana is a quality lefty. Arenado has continued his platoon-bashing ways this year with a .397 ISO against LHP and a 40% HHR, and that number is even higher in Coors.
Other options – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers, DJ LeMahieu
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR ($3000)
If you decide you want to spend up at other positions instead of 3B, Vlad offers nice value. He still hasn’t lived up to his incredible hype in the majors, but he’s started to settle in with a .914 OPS over his last 15 games. He was also a lefty masher in AAA prior to his callup, posting a 1.111 (cool number) OPS against LHP with a .306 ISO. John Means’ 2.67 ERA is backed by a 4.52 SIERA, and the O’s bullpen is 29th in SIERA.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson
Trevor Story, COL ($4600)
This is a tough call, as there are two other shortstops (Baez and Trea Turner) that rank almost equally to Story, and they’re both cheaper. I still can’t rank them ahead of Story, as he absolutely punishes lefties for a 1.200 OPS at home, and he offers speed as well. If you can fit him, do it, and I’d look to at least do one of Arenado/Story in cash.
Other options – Javier Baez, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Francisco Lindor, Adalberto Mondesi, Jorge Polanco
Manny Machado, SD ($3400)
It’s hard to even consider someone in that game since the park environment pales in comparison to many others on the slate, but attacking Tyler Beede is a strategy that I’ve found very effective this season. Beede does carry some upside with a 12.5% swinging strike rate, but he’s also pitched to an 8.15 ERA, 5.60 SIERA, and over a 16% BB rate while allowing a 38.9% HHR. The Padres’ IRT of 4.4 runs is low because the game is in San Fran, but they represent one of the sneakier stacks tonight.
Other options – Jonathan Villar, Jean Segura, Niko Goodrum, Kevin Newman
Kyle Schwarber, CHC ($3900)
Schwarb is still too cheap at under 4k, and he looks like a lock on this slate. The leadoff hitter in Coors always carries extra weight as it is due to the expected fifth PA, and as an added bonus Schwarber is killing the ball right now with a 43% HHR over his last 15 games. He also has a .261 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Play him.
Other options – Charlie Blackmon, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Ronald Acuna, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Christian Yelich, Mike Trout, Juan Soto, Bryce Harper
Andrew Benintendi, BOS ($3500)
Let’s talk about the Red Sox, who have quietly slipped through the cracks of this article despite having an IRT of six runs (higher than any other team except the Cubs). Ariel Jurado has a 2.78 ERA but it’s really all smoke and mirrors and he doesn’t miss bats (career 12% K rate). Pitching to contact against the Red Sox is not for the faint of heart as they rank eighth in wOBA with the fifth lowest K rate against RHB. Benintendi has a 39.1% HHR against RHP this year despite his power numbers being down.
Other options – Tommy Pham, Carlos Gonzalez, Victor Robles, Franmil Reyes, Wil Myers, Ian Desmond, Gregory Polanco, Shohei Ohtani, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes GurrielFantasy Baseball