Happy Monday! It’s time once again to begin another week of DFS, and we have an eight-game slate to tackle this evening. There’s finally no Coors slate to worry about, and every pitcher is priced under 10k which should make for some fun lineups. There are a few different ways to go, so make sure to join us in FTA+ chat tonight and get all the best info and projections. I’m also on twitter @jac3600.
Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($9700)
Carrasco saw his velocity tick back up last start and it resulted in a dominant outing where he struck out ten Brewers. The White Sox are surprisingly 14th in wRC+ against RHP but they do not at all project to finish that way. Carrasco is a solid -202 favorite with a 3.7 IRTA and his price makes him pretty easy to pair with 1-2 big bats.
Other options – Patrick Corbin
Madison Bumgarner, SF ($8800)
If you want to dip down a little bit, Bumgarner is certainly an alternate option. Bumgarner looked fine in his first outing last week, going six innings and logging a quality start. His velocity was still a little bit down which resulted in only three K’s, but he has an excellent matchup against the Marlins and his 3.3 IRTA is the lowest on the slate. Ultimately, I’d probably rather find the extra $900 for Carrasco’s K upside, but if you need that money there’s nothing wrong with MadBum.
Other options – Jose Quintana, Andrew Heaney, Jack Flaherty, Sam Gaviglio, Steven Wright
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($4200)
Goldy is unfortunately leaving Coors Field, but Arizona isn’t a huge step down, even with the Humidor in place. He’s on an unreal tear right now, going 15 for 22 with ELEVEN extra base hits and four homers over the last five games. He’s also posted over a 60% hard hit rate in those five games and has a 49% mark over his last 15. I don’t generally chase hot streaks, but Goldy is a tough one to fade right now.
Other options – Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion, Mitch Moreland
Jake Bauers, TB ($2000)
Bauers is an interesting punt at the bare minimum if he finds himself in the number two hold again. The park environment isn’t good and Toronto pitcher Sam Gaviglio has been solid so far, but Bauers allows you Carrasco and possibly three big bats to go with him. The results haven’t yet been there for Bauers, but he has a 44% hard hit rate since being called up from AAA.
Other options – Yonder Alonso, Jesus Aguilar, Kendrys Morales, Chris Davis
Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Buster Posey, Yan Gomes
I don’t usually fail to include at least one GPP option, but there’s absolutely nothing at the top of the 2B pool today. If you want to take some shots on Yoan Moncada as a leverage play I can get on board, but keep in mind Carrasco has been even better against lefties than against righties since the beginning of last year.
Jace Peterson, BAL ($2000)
Peterson has come through the last two days at minimum price with 9 and 12.5 FD points. He’s not a great hitter, but once again gets a decent context for his “skill set”. He’s facing Steven Wright, and while knuckleballers are hard to gauge, they’re definitely more prone to allowing SBs given the lessened velocity on their main pitch. Peterson stole a bag yesterday, and his three walks in the last two games give him enough upside to do it again. There’s very low risk at minimum price.
Other options – Jason Kipnis, Ian Kinsler, Jonathan Schoop, Ben Zobrist, Josh Harrison
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($5000)
Part of the reason I like at least one of these 2K punts is because it should allow you to pair Carrasco with at least one, and possibly two of the big bats from Cleveland. The Indians are the top offense by a significant margin with a 5.3 IRT, and are facing Lucas Giolito who has been an absolute disaster this year. Giolito has walked 5.75 batters per nine this year while only striking out 4.57 (wow) and has a pitching slash of 7.08/6.20/6.73 (double wow). Ramirez (and all top flight Indians) are well worth their price tags in all formats.
Other options – Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter
Jake Lamb, ARI ($3100)
If you really can’t afford Ramirez (see below, because I think Lindor is a higher priority), Lamb is certainly a viable alternative. Joe Musgrove has started the season on a good note but he’s getting a major park downgrade, and he’s allowed a .175 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year. Since the start of 2015, Lamb has a .237 ISO against RHP.
Other options – Yangervis Solarte, Rafael Devers, Evan Longoria
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4400)
You have to have one of either Lindor or Jose Ramirez (I’d prefer both), but it looks like Lindor makes way more sense for cash purposes (and he’s $600 cheaper). Shortstop is very thin once you get past Lindor, and I failed to point out that in addition to Giolito’s overall struggles, he’s also allowed a .368 wOBA and .228 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year. Fire away.
Other options – Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts
Daniel Robertson, TB ($2600)
If he leads off (he’s not facing a lefty so it’s not a guarantee), Robertson is GPP viable as a contrarian punt, but that’s really it. Sam Gaviglio has never been this effective before, and Robertson’s got enough pop to carry upside. Pay up in cash, though.
Other options – Zack Cozart, Brock Holt
Michael Brantley, CLE ($4300)
We’ll complete the Indians love with Brantley. I’d reserve Brantley for GPP use as part of an Indians stack or as a one-off (the infielders seem to be better cash options), but Brantley has a 32% hard hit rate over his last 15 games and we’ve already discussed Giolito’s struggles, both overall and against lefties in particular.
Other options – Mike Trout, Justin Upton, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Kyle Schwarber, Lorenzo Cain, Tommy Pham, Nelson Cruz
Andrew McCutchen, SF ($3000)
McCutchen’s days as a superstar hitter are over, but he’s still rocked LHP for a .377 wOBA and .248 ISO over the last two seasons, and gets a nice matchup to exploit those skills. Wei-Yin Chen has allowed a .229 ISO to RHB in that time frame and his K/BB rate is trending in the wrong direction. The Giants are a sneaky cheap stack even with a 4.2 IRT, and McCutchen is the top play at an affordable price.
Other options – Marcell Ozuna, Starling Marte, Ryan Braun, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ, Greg Allen, Lonnie Chisenhall, Gorkys Hernandez, Mac Williamson