FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 6/10/18

Manny Machado raises his cap as a member of the Baltimore Orioles

As is generally the case on Sundays, FanDuel and DraftKings present us with dynamically different slates, as the latter includes the THREE best offenses of the day while FanDuel does not.  As such, your lineups will likely look nothing alike outside of maybe the pitcher, which could get people tilting pretty early.  I will be in FTA+ chat helping all our subs, and feel free to tweet me @jac3600.  Good luck!   STARTING PITCHER TOP PLAY James Paxton, SEA ($10,100) I have Paxton about even with Corey Kluber today, and the $1500 discount easily seals the deal for me on FD.  Kluber has a bit better overall matchup and is a bigger favorite, but the two pitchers’ IRT’s are the same (3.1 runs) and Paxton actually has a higher K rate this season (30.5% against Kluber’s 27.5%).  Tampa Bay is 13th in wRC+ against LHP, but they also have the third highest K rate against, and Tampa is a very pitcher-friendly park. Other options – Corey Kluber, Rick Porcello   VALUE PLAY Brandon Woodruff, MIL ($5700) This pick would work better for stacking Coors and Astros, but if you literally want WHOEVER you like on the hitting side, Woodruff is playable.  He doesn’t typically work too deep into games but he’s dirt cheap and is facing the Phillies who have by far the highest K rate against RHP.  They also rank 20th in wRC+ against righties, and Woodruff has moderate K upside which makes 25-30 FD points a real possibility. Other options – Kyle Hendricks, Clayton Richard, Jose Urena, Fernando Romero   CATCHER/FIRST BASE TOP PLAY Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4500) On DraftKings, the top plays will be flooded with Coors Field and the Astros, but on FD you have to take a very different approach.  Rizzo is priced out for cash games but the Cubs have an IRT of five runs against Ivan Nova, and the wind is slightly blowing out in Chicago.  Rizzo has a .384 wOBA and .260 ISO against RHP over the last three years, and he has a 31% hard hit rate over the last ten. Other options – Joey Votto, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Martinez   VALUE PLAY Mitch Moreland, BOS ($3400) Moreland is a very affordable price on FD and makes for a great cash target.  Without Coors or Houston to deal with, the Red Sox have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.3 runs and will hit third against Reynaldo Lopez and a lousy White Sox pen.  Lopez has kept the run prevention in check but it’s through a lot of luck as his K rate is dangerously low (16.3%).  Moreland has a .205 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Other options – Justin Smoak, Jesus Aguilar, Logan Morrison, Kendrys Morales Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Russell Martin, Tucker Barnhart   SECOND BASE TOP PLAY Brian Dozier, MIN ($4100) Dozier has the power upside for GPPs but is fully priced and not a cash option.  Nick Tropeano has struggled with hard contact this year, and Dozier has speed as well.  Nothing to see here in cash but he’s a good one-off. Other options – Scooter Gennett VALUE PLAY Jace Peterson, BAL ($2000) Given the general context of 2B on FD, I have no issue with fully punting the position with Jace.  He’s not a good hitter by any means, but he did enough to pay off his tag yesterday and could do so again facing Marco Estrada again today.  Estrada has been really bad this year, with a 5.22 xFIP and 1.67 HR/9 allowed, and Peterson could score a run or two if he gets on. Other options – Jonathan Schoop, Jonathan Villar, Ben Zobrist   THIRD BASE TOP PLAY Matt Carpenter, STL ($3700) Carpenter has fully turned the corner on his rough start to the season, and he has a 38% hard hit rate over his last 15 games.  He’s leading off with a huge park upgrade going to Cincinnati, and is facing Anthony DeSclafani who has allowed a career 1.32 HR/9 to LHB.  Carpenter has a .244 ISO against RHP over the past three years and the Reds bullpen is awful as well. Other options – Kris Bryant, Jose Ramirez, Travis Shaw   VALUE PLAY Yangervis Solarte, TOR ($3100) Solarte is firmly entrenched in one of the top two spots in the batting order, and Toronto carries a solid IRT of 5.1 runs on this slate.  Alex Cobb has been abysmal this season with a 4.91 FIP, 1.55 HR/9 allowed, and an awful 13.5% K rate.  Over the past three years, Solarte has been quite serviceable in the power department with a .175 ISO against RHP. Other options – Rafael Devers, Kyle Seager, Luis Valbuena   SHORTSTOP TOP PLAY Manny Machado, BAL ($4500) It’s a close race between Machado and Lindor at the top, but Lindor’s slump slightly drops him to the silver medal.  Machado is facing a reverse-split pitcher who has allowed a .374 wOBA and .224 ISO to same-handed hitters since the beginning of last year, and Machado has a .239 ISO against RHP in that span.  He’s on the road in a good hitting environment, and it worth his price tag as your “one big spend”. Other options – Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts   VALUE PLAY Brock Holt, BOS ($2700) Right now, there is NOTHING on the value end of the SS pool so I’m looking to pay up.  Brock Holt could literally be anywhere from second to ninth in the Red Sox lineup, but if we get lucky he could wind up being a really good value against the White Sox.  Anytime you get a gift of cheap exposure to the top offense on the slate, that’s a good thing. Other options – Yairo Munoz, Aledyms Diaz, Scott Kingery   OUTFIELD TOP PLAY Mike Trout, LAA ($5100) Trout is Trout.  He’s once again got massive numbers on the year and he’s currently rocking an incredible 40% hard hit rate over his last 15 games.  He doesn’t fit the cash context today which should keep his ownership levels nice and low in GPPs, making him an elite target.  Over the past three years, Trout has a .425 wOBA and .246 ISO against same-handed pitching. Other options – JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Marcell Ozuna, Scott Schebler, Kyle Schwarber, Teoscar Hernandez   VALUE PLAY Curtis Granderson, TOR ($2700) Grandy remains grossly underpriced in a terrific matchup against the Orioles and Alex Cobb.  After sitting yesterday, Granderson should be back in the leadoff spot for the Jays today, and he still has a beautiful .228 ISO against RHP over the last three years.  He’s a building block of cash games today. Other options – Tommy Pham, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Max Kepler, Ryan Braun, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Jason Heyward, Lonnie Chisenhall Fantasy Baseball

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