Welcome to June, where the weather REALLY heats up and the IRT’s give us fits since we can’t roster them all. We have a full 15-game slate on tap for us tonight, complete with Coors Field and Sale and Cole opposing each other. Some decisions will have to be made, and we at FTA+ have the projection sheets and live chat to help you wade through all the noise and maximize your success. Join us tonight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Chris Sale, BOS ($11,000)
Sale is facing Gerrit Cole who have both been outstanding this season, but each has a supremely difficult matchup with the other team’s offense. The Astros are third in wRC+ against LHP, but as far as I’m concerned the K rate reigns supreme here. Sale’s velocity is trending upwards and he has a 34.1% K rate over his last five games. He got dinged a bit last outing against Atlanta, but the strikeouts were still there. I’m fine taking the run prevention risk that comes with guaranteed K’s, but Sale will cost you some Coors.
Other options – Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Carrasco
Nick Pivetta, SF ($8200)
If you want to take on a little more risk but save the money to get in big Coors bats, I would go with Pivetta (even though he seems better suited for GPPs). He’s getting a terrific park shift going from Philly to SF, and he’s been great lately with 32 K’s over his last four starts (including seven at home against these same Giants). If you assume the top guys come with the same risks as these mid-tier values, it’s a viable strategy to dip down a bit to Pivetta in cash.
Other options – Chase Anderson, Tyler Mahle, Zack Wheeler, Jameson Taillon, Chris Stratton, Jaime Garcia
Gary Sanchez, NYY ($3500)
Three teams are sitting with an IRT of 5.7 runs as of the writing – the Coors Field teams, and the Yankees. After getting rained out last night, the Yanks will get to take aim against Andrew Cashner and his .195 ISO allowed to same-handed hitting over the past two years. His luck that we’ve been harping on finally seems to have run out, and it’s showing in his extreme FB/GB discrepancies. Sanchez is rather underpriced, and is a great way to get exposure to the Yankees offense.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmani Grandal, Anthony Rizzo, Joey Votto, Cody Bellinger, Jose Abreu
Greg Bird, NYY ($2700)
You need to play Bird in cash games tonight. He’s ridiculously underpriced for someone who will bat third of fourth for the Yanks tonight, and has has a .360 wOBA and .237 ISO against RHP in his limited time since the beginning of last season. He’s almost free access to the offense that is currently tied for the top stack of the night, and he has a 40% hard hit rate since his return from the DL.
Other options – Justin Smoak, Eric Hosmer, Justin Bour, Matt Olson, Brad Miller
Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Jonathan Lucroy, Russell Martin
Yoan Moncada, CHW ($3500)
I’d prefer to save some money at the 2B position for cash tonight, but Moncada is a fine option hitting from the left side (his better side). Opposing pitcher Chase Anderson is better targeted with righties for his reverse-split tendencies, but Moncada has a .202 ISO against RHP since he came up last year and Anderson K rate has dipped significantly this year.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Brian Dozier, Whit Merrifield, Gleyber Torres
Logan Forsythe, LAD ($3000)
Forsythe hits seventh which isn’t ideal for cash, but he’s one of few Dodgers that can be had at a cheap price tag given their Coors exposure and high IRT (5.7 runs). If he somehow gets a lineup boost against the lefty Tyler Anderson, Forysthe would become really appealing with his .227 ISO against LHP the last three years. As it stands now, he’s playable but not an extreme value.
Other options – Jed Lowrie, Jonathan Schoop, Jace Peterson, Rougned Odor, Jonathan Villar
Justin Turner, LAD ($4100)
Usually Arenado holds the top spot at 3B when he’s in Coors, but since the Dodgers seem to be going with a bullpen game tonight instead of their previous starter (Alex Wood), there’s a bit more uncertainty in Arenado’s $5400 price tag. For that reason, I’d rather save $1300 and target the same game with Turner. He has a .364 wOBA and .198 ISO against LHP over the past two years, and Tyler Anderson has allowed a .197 ISO to righties in that span. Turner can be used in all formats.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant, Mike Moustakas, Josh Donaldson
Matt Chapman, OAK ($2700)
If you’re spending up for Sale (or Cole), or even dipping into the Strasburg/Carrasco tier, you’ll need savings. Matt Chapman and the A’s have a very sneaky IRT of five runs as they travel to KC where it’s hot. Chapman has shown elite power in his major league career and is facing off against Ian Kennedy who has allowed a .195 ISO to RHB over the past two years while letting up 1.60 HR/9 over the last four. The KC bullpen behind Kennedy is nothing to write home about either.
Other options – Jake Lamb, Ryan McMahon, Miguel Andujar
Chris Taylor, LAD ($4000)
As long as Taylor takes the leadoff spot for the Dodgers, he’s the one member of their team I’ll make it a priority to spend on. Leading off in Coors always gives an upside boost since five plate appearances is a virtual guarantee, and there’s upside for six. Taylor has a .181 ISO against LHP over the past two years and he offers a speed component as well.
Other options – Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Trea Turner, Didi Gregorius
Yangervis Solarte, TOR ($3200)
You have to pay up for shortstop in cash games no matter which pitcher you decide to go with, but Solarte is a fun GPP value as he should come with almost no ownership. Toronto has a very sneaky IRT of 4.7 runs, and are facing Blaine Hardy who ZiPS is pretty high on, but is backed by a mediocre K rate and a terrible bullpen (last in xFIP). Solarte is a switch-hitter who won’t lose the platoon edge.
Other options – Jose Peraza, Jedd Gyorko, Orlando Arcia
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4500)
It’s not yet revealed how the Dodgers will approach tonight’s game, but if it’s a true bullpen game then Charlie Blackmon owns this top spot. For now, I’ll be happy with the $600 savings to Stanton, who will hit third or fourth for the Yanks who have the same IRT as the Dodgers and Rockies. Andrew Cashner hasn’t missed bats or kept the ball on the ground which is a recipe for disaster against a hitter like Stanton. He doesn’t fit the cash mold if you’re paying up for SP, but he’s one of the best players on the slate.
Other options – Charlie Blackmon, Bryce Harper, Carlos Gonzalez, Mike Trout, Aaron Judge, Lorenzo Cain, Nick Castellanos, Tommy Pham, Matt Kemp
Kike Hernandez, LAD ($3000)
Kike always comes with an element of PH risk, but I don’t see how you pass on him at 3k in Coors Field against a lefty. He has a .347 wOBA and .239 ISO against LHP over the past two years, and he should hit anywhere from second to fourth for the Dodgers tonight. He’s basically free at his price tag, and one you should be fully taking advantage of.
Other options – David Dahl, Khris Davis, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, David Peralta, Jarrod Dyson, Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Yasiel Puig, Matt Joyce, Stephen Piscotty, Teoscar Hernandez, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo, Derek Dietrich