We have a completely split slate today, but my article will of course deal with the main slate that begins at 7 PM. Pitching is a bit scarce there, but we also don’t have to deal with the high prices of the Coors game. If you’re playing early, you’ll want to focus on that game as the total is sitting at a whopping 13 runs. I’ll be in chat tonight helping our subs, and get your HR calls in! I’m also on twitter @jac3600.
Patrick Corbin, ARI ($10,000)
Corbin’s tag is a bit aggressive, but you can certainly pay it on this slate on FD where the rest of the options are very suspect. Corbin is posting an elite 34.7% K rate this season and the Dodgers’ lineup is very watered down without Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Yasiel Puig. You’re not leaving much room for value with Corbin’s price tag, but this might be more about the safety of his floor.
Other options – Gio Gonzalez, Masahiro Tanaka
Julio Teheran, ATL ($7400)
Teheran’s real value will not be known until the Rays release their lineup. Tampa tends to send out very right-handed lineups which would push Teheran into cash consideration despite a volatile start to the season. Over the past two years, Teheran has held RHB to a .280 wOBA with a 25% K rate, but he’s been battered by LHP. Keep an eye on this, as being able to use Teheran really opens up the bats you can utilize.
Other options – Alex Wood, Joey Lucchesi, Nick Pivetta, Jaime Garcia
Brandon Belt, SF ($3900)
Belt is fully priced, but he’s in play with the park boost in Philadelphia and the HR-prone Nick Pivetta. Belt has a .377 wOBA and .217 ISO against RHP over the last three years and he’s posted a 32.3% hard hit rate over the last 15 games. Pivetta certainly has K upside, but the Giants are starting to return to their contact-heavy ways.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Hanley Ramirez, Gary Sanchez
Lucas Duda, KC ($2500)
The Royals put up a 15-spot on Baltimore yesterday after Dylan Bundy failed to record an out, and now they get to take on another really FB-prone pitcher in Andrew Cashner (plus Baltimore’s bullpen had to pitch nine innings yesterday). It’s possible KC’s IRT of 4.5 runs is a little light, and Duda is a platoon monster. Cashner has allowed 2.09 HR/9 this season, and the Royals are getting a park upgrade.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Carlos Santana, Neil Walker
Catcher values – Salvador Perez, Mike Zunino, Russell Martin
Whit Merrifield, KC ($3700)
There’s a clear cheaper target (see below), but Merrifield is a nice option in Royals’ stacks or as a one-off in GPPs. Merrifield has power and speed and gets the same upside I mentioned in Duda’s blurb. The only rub here is that he dropped to sixth in the batting order yesterday, and we’d really like to see him hitting first again.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Cesar Hernandez, Robinson Cano
Jonathan Schoop, BAL ($2700)
I don’t think you can pass on the cheap price tag of Schoop right now. He returned from the DL and hit cleanup yesterday, and his price has remained far too cheap. Schoop posted an elite .397 wOBA and .293 ISO against LHP last season and is facing Eric Skoglund who has a 6.84 ERA right now with a 13.3% HR/FB rate. The Orioles have an IRT of five runs (tied for highest on the slate), and Schoop is basically free access to it.
Other options – Howie Kendrick, Eduardo Nunez, Jose Pirela
Josh Donaldson, TOR ($4000)
It’s easy to fit in Donaldson on this slate, and I strongly recommend doing so. He’s back and healthy for the Blue Jays, and gets to face the fly-ball prone Wade LeBlanc. Donaldson has obliterated lefties in his career, posting a .418 wOBA and .309 ISO against them over the past three years. The Blue Jays have an IRT of 4.7 runs, and Donaldson is the best option by far.
Other options – Mike Moustakas, Anthony Rendon
Yangervis Solarte, TOR ($3400)
I would find the extra $600 for Donaldson but if you absolutely can’t, Solarte is an adequate replacement. He gets the same matchup upside, and he’s quietly posted a .369 wOBA and .256 ISO this season. Solarte is an excellent one off from the expected high ownership on Donaldson, and is also a key piece to Blue Jays stacks.
Other options – Evan Longoria, Kike Hernandez, Danny Valencia
Manny Machado, BAL ($4500)
Machado is fully priced, but he’s a tough fade at a thin SS position. If you decide to go cheap at SP (i.e., not Corbin), Machado is a must, as Eric Skoglund has allowed a .399 wOBA and 1.63 HR/9 to RHB for his career so far. Machado is an elite hitter who carries a touch of a speed component as well.
Other options – Didi Gregorius, Trea Turner
Jean Segura, SEA ($3200)
If your Corbin/Donaldson pairing keep you off Machado, Segura seems like the only other logical choice for a cash SS. There’s not much to like in the way of power, but Segura still has a speed component to go along with a .360 wOBA against LHP over the past three seasons. He’ll be a road leadoff hitter which gives him the upside of five PAs, and Roberto Osuna will likely be unavailable following his arrest.
Other options – Brandon Crawford, Nick Ahmed, Scott Kingery
Nelson Cruz, SEA ($3700)
Glomming onto the Segura play is Nelson Cruz, who carries FAR more upside and is one of the best platoon plays in baseball. Jaime Garcia has been completely incapable of keeping the ball in the park this year (2.40 HR/9 allowed), and Cruz has a .412 wOBA and .299 ISO against LHP over the past three seasons. Again, we’re hoping Osuna isn’t available either which would further diminish the effectiveness of Toronto’s bullpen. Cruz is a strong play in all formats, but I’d prioritize Donaldson and Machado as big spends simply due to positional scarcity.
Other options – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, AJ Pollock, JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Rhys Hoskins, Ronald Acuna, Mitch Haniger, Andrew McCutchen, Teoscar Hernandez
Trey Mancini/Adam Jones, BAL ($2900/$2800)
One or both of these guys should be in your cash lineup tonight as they are hitting 1-2 for the Orioles and will both carry the platoon edge against Eric Skoglund. Mancini has been solid in the power department with a .191 ISO against LHP, and Adam Jones has posted a 107 wRC+ or higher in six of his last eight seasons. They make so much sense for your cash lineups at sub-3k prices.
Other options – Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Dee Gordon, Kevin Pillar, Aaron Altherr, Mark Trumbo, Denard Span, Manuel Margot, Chris Owings, Steven Souza, Lourdes Gurriel, Jon Jay, Alex Gordon