Well, yesterday couldn’t have gone much worse. I went almost all in on Collin McHugh, I faded Justin Turner, and I loaded up on Reds (Mike Fiers proceeded to no-hit them). The only thing to do is move on to today, and we have a really fun eight-game slate. There’s pitching, there’s Coors, and the Red Sox and Astros have super high IRT’s. Forgive me for yesterday :), and I’ll be in chat to help you all later. I’m also on twitter @jac3600.
Chris Sale, BOS ($11,000)
Sale’s price has climbed back up to “elite” territory, but that’s largely because he’s back to his elite pitching ways. Over his last three starts, Sale has only allowed four earned runs while striking out 39% of batters (with a 13.3% swinging strike rate). Sale is a massive -290 favorite with a 3.2 IRTA, and Baltimore has struck out 26% of the time against LHP. If you want to pay all the way to Sale, I don’t fault you, but there are cheaper options that are viable if you want to load up on the many offensive weapons available.
Other options – Clayton Kershaw, Matthew Boyd
Kyle Hendricks, CHC ($8200)
Hendricks (18.1% K rate) does not remotely have Sale’s strikeout upside and he also has as 4.48 SIERA to date thus far. So why even consider him? Because…the Marlins. Miami is 29th in wOBA and last ISO against RHP, with also the highest strikeout rate against them. Hendricks has an elite GB rate and the ability to work deep into games, and he’s a -225 favorite with a 3.2 IRTA. He’s a fantastic play in all formats.
Other options – Brad Peacock, Sonny Gray, Jon Gray, Kyle Gibson
Mitch Moreland, BOS ($3700)
Missing the friggin’ boat on Moreland is another mistake I made yesterday. We have another garbage pitcher in Camden Yards in Andrew Cashner who has a 4.93 SIERA and a 34% Hard – soft hit rate allowed. He’s also backed by an Orioles bullpen that ranks dead last in SIERA. Moreland’s .231 baseline ISO against RHP looks like a strong target, and Baltimore has no lefty relievers.
Other options – Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt
C.J. Cron, MIN ($2800)
Cron is where I’m looking for cash games on FanDuel at a sub-3k price tag. The Twins are elite in all categories against right-handed pitching, and Trent Thornton has allowed a 41.3% HHR this year with only a 33% GB rate (this has led to him allowing almost two homers per nine innings). Cron has a .228 baseline ISO against same-handed pitching, and should hit fifth.
Other options – Justin Smoak, Max Muncy, Mark Reynolds, Tyler White
Catcher values – Buster Posey, Robinson Chirinos, Jason Castro
Jose Altuve, HOU ($3900)
Even with the Red Sox facing Cashner and a Coors game on tap, the Astros own the highest IRT of the night at 5.6 runs. It’s going to be over 80 degrees there with the wind blowing straight out to center, and the roof should be open. Jorge Lopez isn’t the worst pitcher on the slate, but he’s got a 4.57 SIERA and a 42% FB rate which could really hurt him against this powerful team. Altuve has a .254 ISO this season and speed upside.
Other options – Michael Chavis, Whit Merrifield
Jose Peraza, CIN ($2200)
I’m not calling Altuve core on FD given the value in Peraza. He should lead off against a lefty, and his value is in his legs so the power downgrade in Oakland shouldn’t affect him. Peraza has 62 SBs over the last three seasons and Brett Anderson has a below average release time. Peraza is a great punt if you plan on spending all the way up to Sale at SP.
Other options – Joe Panik, Jonathan Schoop, Daniel DeScalso
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4900)
Choosing between Arenado and Alex Bregman tonight is going to give me fits, especially since the $600 savings to Bregman seems like a gift. I can’t quit Arenado against a lefty, though, and especially Derek Holland who has allowed 1.55 HR/9 to RHB over a three-year period. Arenado has a .425 wOBA and .320 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year, and is well worth his tag in all formats.
Other options – Alex Bregman, Kris Bryant, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Eugenio Suarez
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR ($2500)
Vlad’s long-awaited debut has not gone as predicted, as he hasn’t yet made the adjustment to major-league pitching. He will, though, and I remain interested in his rapidly dropping price tag. Kyle Gibson is a fine pitcher, but his 4.24 SIERA and 21% K rate isn’t anything elite that we should be avoiding him. I really think you have to pay up at 3B in cash, but Vlad could be UTIL, and he’s a terrific GPP option for when the big game comes.
Other options – Justin Turner, David Fletcher, Marwin Gonzalez, Jeimer Candelario
Trevor Story, COL ($4700)
In a perfect world, I get Bregman at 3B and Story’s similar upside to Arenado’s at SS (then I have it all!). This could prove challenging, obviously, so we’ll see what the lineups bring us. Story has an elite .403 wOBA and .305 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year, and he’s apparently now a top SB threat as well.
Other options – Javier Baez, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Adalberto Mondesi, Jorge Polanco
Corey Seager, LAD ($3000)
As usual, SS carries more opportunity cost than the rest of the positions, but I think you can get away with Seager at 3k in cash if you wanted. Mike Foltynewicz is a good pitcher but he’s still allowed 1.30 HR/9 to LHB over the past three years. In that span, Seager has posted a .351 wOBA and .191 ISO against RHP, and he should hit anywhere from second to fourth.
Other options – Andrelton Simmons, Brandon Crawford, Jose Iglesias
JD Martinez, BOS ($3900)
It’s wishy-washy of me to say “the Boston outfield” when they’re the premier plays, so I’m actually deep-diving and picking which one I like best. I was right on JD last night (one of the few things I did hit on), and he’s my favorite cash target of the three Boston OFs again. Andrew Cashner allows equal power to both sides, and Martinez’s baseline .397 wOBA and .279 ISO looks to be the strongest of the bunch. It’s dumb that he’s under 4k.
Other options – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Mike Trout, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Charlie Blackmon, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson
Yasiel Puig, CIN ($2700)
This one bit me in the butt yesterday, but I might as well go back to it. The Reds are getting a park downgrade in Oakland, but Puig has a .207 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. He also has a 37.8% HHR over his last 15 games, and Oakland’s bullpen is below average outside of their closer.
Other options – Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Robbie Grossman, Stephen Duggar, Mac Williamson, Josh Reddick, Kyle Schwarber, Jackie BradleyFantasy Baseball