FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 5/8/18


Happy Tuesday everyone.  I got back on track in a big way on DraftKings, but the FanDuel slide hit three days yesterday (luckily I went very light).  Today we have our full 14-game card with only one day game, so there’s plenty of stuff to decide on (the big one is Kluber vs. Coors).  I will be in chat helping all our subs (we have some big winners lately), and follow me on twitter @jac3600.  Good luck!

 

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Corey Kluber, CLE ($11,400)

It’s always a tough choice when you have to decide whether to fade the top pitcher or the Coors bats, but in this case I’ll have to go Kluber simply due to the fact that the rest of the pitching is very suspect.  Kluber will get the pleasure of taking on the strikeout-prone Brewers in an NL park (which means no DH), and he’s a -185 road favorite with a 3.3 IRTA (both slate extremes).  It’s tough to fade all the top Coors bats like Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story, but I think Kluber takes precedence today.

Other options – Luis Severino, James Paxton, Lance McCullers, Aaron Nola

 

VALUE PLAY

Mike Minor, TEX ($6500)

When Coors is in session, I always look for that cheap upside pitcher to stack them with in GPPs, and I think that’s Minor tonight.  Minor has always been risky due to his fly ball tendencies, but his HR/FB rate since the beginning of last season is only at 6.6% which is awesome.  Detroit is not a scary lineup by any means, and they’re further thinned out by the absence of Miguel Cabrera.  You have carte blanche for whatever hitters you want in a tournament if you go Minor.

Other options – Dylan Bundy, Blake Snell, Ivan Nova, Sean Newcomb, Rich Hill, Luis Castillo, Marcus Stroman

 

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Ian Desmond, COL ($3500)

With a reasonable price tag, Desmond is the one Coors bat I will actively look to get into my cash lineups if I decide to go all the way up to Kluber.  The Rockies (predictably) have the top IRT on the slate at 5.4 runs, and they’re facing Andrew Heaney who has K upside but is also incapable of keeping the ball on the ground (34% GB rate this year, 38% for his career).  Desmond is leading off with D.J. LeMahieu on the DL, and he’s simply underpriced for the context.

Other options – Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo, Albert Pujols, Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Sanchez

 

VALUE PLAY

Chris Iannetta, COL ($3000)

Iannetta is firm at the fifth hitter against lefties, and he’s also underpriced for Coors Field.  People are often reticent to play a catcher with FD’s new lineup system, but Iannetta is a solid play and you can get your Coors exposure with both him and Desmond alongside Corey Kluber.  Iannetta has a .197 ISO against LHP over the last three years and the Coors effect should enhance his upside.

Other options – Paul Goldschmidt (cheapest I’ve ever seen him), Josh Bell, Carlos Santana, Lucas Duda

Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Robinson Chirinos, Devin Mesoraco

 

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Altuve, HOU ($4200)

The Astros stack worked wonders in GPPs yesterday, and you can certainly go back to it tonight.  Altuve is an elite platoon play, and Sean Manaea is pitching over his head a bit.  Altuve has no place in cash lineups, but he’s still one of the best fantasy players on the planet.

Other options – Javier Baez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Robinson Cano

 

VALUE PLAY

Ian Kinsler, LAA ($3300)

Jon Gray is such a volatile pitcher that it’s often scary to target him, but Ian Kinsler is a little too cheap for a leadoff hitter in Coors Field.  He’s almost guaranteed to have at least five plate appearances, and he brings a power/speed upside component.  Kinsler’s power is declining, but he’s got a .177 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last year, and the Angels have the second highest IRT at 5.1 runs.

Other options – Cesar Hernandez, Scooter Gennett, Leury Garcia

 

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($5100)

If you want Kluber, you can’t really have Arenado, but there’s no question he’s the top overall hitter on this slate.  Andrew Heaney has allowed a .213 ISO to RHB since the beginning of 2015, and Arenado has a .430 wOBA and .292 ISO against LHP in that span.  If you decide to take plunge and risk a cheaper SP in cash, make absolutely sure that Arenado is the first hitter you lock in.

Other options – Jose Ramirez, Kris Bryant, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Donaldson, Mike Moustakas

 

VALUE PLAY

Danny Valencia, BAL ($2300)

Valencia should be in the lineup against a lefty, and he shouldn’t hit any lower than sixth.  Danny Duffy is a quality pitcher, but Valencia is a platoon monster with a .222 ISO against LHP the last three years.  You have to punt somewhere if you want Kluber and any semblance of an offense, so there are worse choices than Valencia.

Other options – Anthony Rendon, Kyle Seager, Isaiah Kiner-Fafela, Renato Nunez

 

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($3800)

Story’s downside (his career 33% K rate) will be a huge risk tonight against a solid strikeout pitcher like Andrew Heaney, but his upside is hard to ignore as well.  Story is rocking a 31% hard hit rate over the last 15 games and has a career .411 wOBA and .326 ISO against LHP.  I’ve already harped on Heaney’s FB struggles, and Story has pretty much solidified himself as Colorado’s cleanup hitter.  The upside is monstrous.

Other options – Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner

 

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Mike Trout, LAA ($5900)

I mean…that price tag.  It’s really tough to justify a price tag that is more than some pitchers on this slate, but he’s the best hitter on the planet and now gets to hit in the best park environment in baseball.  Trout has an unreal 50% hard hit rate over the last 15 days, and has a .415 wOBA and .247 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of 2015.  If you’re willing to sacrifice Kluber in cash, I don’t believe Trout to be overpriced.

Other options – Charlie Blackmon, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Bryce Harper, George Springer, Yoenis Cespedes, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Joey Gallo

 

VALUE PLAY

Michael Conforto, NYM ($2900)

So Conforto’s price has dropped for some reason, and he once again rates as a cash must for me.  Luis Castillo is not near the gas can that Homer Bailey is, but he’s still struggled with hard contact and command this season, and Conforto is a state-of-the-art hitter.  He should lead off again and he gets the park upgrade in Great American Ballpark, and Castillo has allowed 1.82 HR/9 to start the year.

Other options – Delino DeShields, Nomar Mazara, Shin Soo Choo, Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Aaron Hicks, Adam Frazier, Albert Almora, Kole Calhoun, Nick Delmonico

Fantasy Baseball

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