FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 5/7/19


It was yet another day of winning for us at FTA. Seriously, if you’re not with us, send a PM to @FanTeamAdvice and check out all we have to offer with a a free week trial. Tonight we have a full 13-game slate, and the GIANTS are in Coors Field. Will they be able to overcome the fact that they’re not a good offense there? Time will tell, but their prices are awfully enticing on FD…

I’ll see you all in chat this evening, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($10,400)

We don’t have the glut of ace pitching that we had last night (all of them came through, by the way), but there are a couple of options up top that should still inspire confidence. Syndergaard has been a point of discussion all season long in our chat room, but our analysts have steadfastly maintained that you should keep rostering him at depressed costs. His price went up after his recent CG gem, but not enough. Noah’s FIP is a full two runs lower than his ERA still, and he’s rocking a 27% K rate on the season accompanied by a 13.3% swinging strike rate. The Padres feature a lineup that generally has at least seven righties, and they’ve struck out an insane 31% against RHP this season. The Mets’ complete lack of offense takes some appeal of of Thor’s expected win%, but I can’t imagine we don’t see a quality start and at least 7 strikeouts.

Other options – Stephen Strasburg, Jose Berrios, Caleb Smith

VALUE PLAY

Collin McHugh, HOU ($8600)

Yesterday, Gerrit Cole provided a perfect example of what attacking the Royals could mean. I wrote up that they rank third in wOBA against RHP but have a really high K rate, and that’s what we saw, as they got to Cole for four runs while also striking out nine times against him. Today I would imagine something similar for McHugh, who has a 3.07 SIERA with an elite 30.2% K rate. He is a -230 favorite which is the largest on the slate, and his 3.6 IRTA rivals Syndergaard. If you want to get some elite bats in, McHugh is more than cash viable on a site that values a win and QS more.

Other options – Jon Lester, Madison Bumgarner, Aaron Nola, Griffin Canning, Adrian Houser/Freddy Peralta (opener/LR)

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Mitch Moreland, BOS ($3600)

This is not a typical “top play” name on a full slate, but it speaks to how highly the Red Sox are rated tonight. They have an IRT of 5.8 runs which is the highest of the slate (beating out both Coors teams and the Astros who are also in magnificent spots). David Hess is actually worse this year than he was last season, which is saying something. He’s allowed 2.37 HR/9 while posting only a 10.2% K/BB rate, and his FIP currently sits at 6.01 (which is right where all the major projection systems have him). Moreland doesn’t do much outside of hitting homers, but if he’s third in the Boston lineup tonight he should have RBI opportunities aplenty. Moreland also has a .232 ISO against RHP the last three seasons.

Other options – Rhys Hoskins, Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, Brandon Belt

VALUE PLAY

Mark Reynolds, COL ($3100)

Reynolds has also been an extremely K prone pitcher, and this season is actually his worst one yet (35.1% K rate). He’s facing off against Madison Bumgarner which is not an optimal spot, but he’s not the same pitcher anymore either (4.23 SIERA, 20.9% K rate, 42% HHR allowed). Vegas isn’t afraid of Bumgarner anymore either, as they’ve pegged the Rockies for a 5.5 IRT. Ultimately, Reynolds is too cheap for a cleanup hitter in Coors, and can be used in all formats.

Other options – Joey Votto, Ji-Man Choi, Nate Lowe, CJ Cron, Yuli Gurriel

Catcher values – Buster Posey, Robinson Chirinos, Yasmani Grandal, Christian Vasquez

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Altuve, HOU ($4000)

I have a feeling people will notice the Red Sox, and Coors games are always obvious as well, but I can see the Astros flying under the radar which just shouldn’t be. They once again lead the league in ISO against LHP and will face off against a broken Danny Duffy tonight (4.77 SIERA, 15% K rate since 2018). Altuve has a .255 ISO this season and has hit LHP for a .390 wOBA and .182 ISO since 2017. He also has speed, and should be a key part of the Astros’ 5.4 IRT (just below COL, ahead of SF).

Other options – Michael Chavis, Brandon Lowe

VALUE PLAY

Joe Panik, SF ($3200)

You’re still paying a premium on Giants’ hitters (Panik would ordinarily be around $2500), but they’re still too cheap for a Coors game. Their IRT is five runs which is probably the highest they’ve been all year, and the matchup is great against Antonio Senzatela and his 4.59 SIERA and 16.9% K rate (12.7% against LHB). Panik offers no power (career .117 ISO), but he’ll lead off on the road in Coors which always helps boost value, and his run scoring upside is heightened in the thin air. I’d fade in GPPs, but Panik is a solid cash value.

Other options – Mike Moustakas, Kike Hernandez, Jonathan Villar, Robinson Cano, Adam Frazier

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Alex Bregman, HOU ($4300)

Arenado against a lefty is automatic in Coors, right? Not tonight, as I much prefer the scorching hot Bregman in the platoon split for $500 less. Bregman has five homers and a 44% HHR in his last six games, and since the beginning of last year he has roasted LHP for a .400 wOBA and .251 ISO. Add in the stolen base upside and you’ve got a guy who could arguably be the top play overall, not just at 3B.

Other options – Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers, Eugenio Suarez

VALUE PLAY

Evan Longoria, SF ($3000)

Longoria is well past his prime, but his .179 ISO this season is the largest it’s been since 2016. It’s still not a world-beating number, but he’s also got the Coors effect in his favor and a cheap price tag. Antonio Senzatela has allowed 1.21 HR/9 this season and doesn’t miss bats.

Other options – Matt Carpenter, Justin Turner, David Fletcher, Jung Ho Kang

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4600)

You’ve got to strongly consider the Rockies big righty bats in this one, even if you’re mildly scared of Bumgarner. Story is an elite platoon player, posting a .403 wOBA and .305 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. Bumgarner still has skills and K upside, but he’s allowed a 37% HHR to RHB in that span. Story also steals bags, so there are plenty of ways for him to achieve value. He’s worth his price tag in all formats.

Other options – Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Adalberto Mondesi

VALUE PLAY

Andrelton Simmons, LAA ($3000)

The Angels are a very sneaky stack tonight with an IRT of 4.8 runs. Simmons should hit third against Daniel Norris who has struggled mightily in the platoon split, allowing almost a 50% FB Rate and 40% HHR since the beginning of last year. Simmons does not have near the upside of Story (BABIP is 127 points lower) but he offers you a viable savings if you want to spend up elsewhere.

Other options – Brandon Crawford, Greg Garcia, Cole Tucker

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

THE RED SOX OUTFIELD (Betts $4400/JD $4000/Benintendi $4000)

So you need at least one of these guys in cash, and two would be preferred. To put it into perspective, David Hess has allowed 2.45 HR/9 to RHB and 2.25 HR/9 to LHB, so no one will miss their true upside here. Unbelievably, his .222 BABIP against RHB actually shows that he should be WORSE against them, so I think you look to Betts and JD before Benintendi, but all three are magnificent plays. If you’re making me pick one, JD is discounted to Betts at $400, so he’ll be the first I plug in.

Other options – Mike Trout, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Charlie Blackmon, Bryce Harper, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Khris Davis

VALUE PLAY

Yasiel Puig, CIN ($2700)

Puig remains far too cheap on FD, and I’m going to continue taking advantage until he’s corrected. The Reds are getting a severe park downgrade going to Oakland, but the fact that they still have an IRT of 4.6 runs shows how really bad Mike Fiers is. Over his career, Fiers has allowed 1.56 HR/9 to RHB while also posting a 4.53 FIP. Puig is a legit power/speed threat and bats third or fourth. Good enough for me.

Other options – Jesse Winker, Randal Grichuk, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Mike Gerber, Delino DeShields, Jorge Soler, Adam Eaton, Nick Williams, Robbie Grossman

Fantasy Baseball