FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 5/7/18


I’ll be honest – this was a rotten weekend, and I need to right the ship pronto.  We have a seven-game slate to tackle tonight, and really only one pitcher to build around in cash.  If you haven’t already, give our FTA+ program a shot.  The first month is free and you can get access to the most state-of-the-art projection system in DFS, along with our live chat every night.  I’ll see you all there tonight, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.  Good luck!

 

STARTING PITCHER

Stephen Strasburg, WAS ($10,000)

The pitching conversation begins and ends with Strasburg on this seven-game card.  He’s in San Diego facing the Padres who are without Wil Myers and have the highest K rate against RHP.  He has a 3.1 IRTA which is the lowest on the slate and is once again rocking a 28.6% K rate.  Starsburg is a cash game building block, and honestly he’s a tricky fade in GPPs with opportunity cost so high at the position.

Other options – None

 

VALUE PLAY

Kyle Hendricks, CHC ($7900)

Hendricks doesn’t have near Strasburg’s upside as far as strikeouts go, but he has a terrific matchup against the Marlins who rank dead last in wRC+ against RHP, and he gets to take them on at home where the weather is cooler and the wind is supposed to be blowing in.  Hendricks is by far the biggest favorite on the slate at -240, and his 3.2 IRTA is just a tad higher than Strasburg’s.  If you want to play the run prevention game and forego K upside, Hendricks could be a GPP winner.

Other options – Dallas Keuchel, Tyson Ross, Jeff Samardzija, Ron Gant, Fernando Romero

 

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Brandon Belt, SF ($3800)

A short slate is going to cause some odd names to rise to the top, but Belt is viable in all formats tonight, cash included.  The Giants will continue to get a park upgrade as they travel to Philadelphia, and Belt is rocking a 33% hard hit rate over his last 15 games.  The matchup is ideal, and Zack Eflin doesn’t miss bats and has allowed an unreal 1.93 HR/9 to LHB over the past two seasons.  Philly’s bullpen is shaky at best, too.

Other options – Joey Votto, Matt Adams, Anthony Rizzo

 

VALUE PLAY

Carlos Santana, PHI ($2900)

Santana is a tough one to figure out this year.  His BB rate is the same as always and his batted ball profile suggests that he SHOULD be doing a lot better than he is.  We just haven’t seen the results yet.  I’m still willing to take shots on him in cash tonight (and I love him in GPPs) considering he has a .216 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year and Jeff Samardzija is getting a park downgrade.

Other options – Justin Bour, Yuli Gurriel, Adrian Gonzalez

Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Victor Martinez, James McCann

 

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Altuve, HOU ($4300)

Altuve’s hard hit rate is only at 13% over the last 15 games, so you’re not getting him in the best context (Oakland is a park downgrade as well).  That said, he’s always in play against a lefty as he has a .403 wOBA and .199 ISO against them since the beginning of 2015, and Brett Anderson’s K rate is rapidly declining as he ages.  Ultimately I’d rather pay top dollar for a better context in cash, but Altuve is an elite GPP option.

Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Brian Dozier

 

VALUE PLAY

Matt Carpenter, STL ($3400)

Fernando Romero projects to be a pretty decent prospect for the Twins, but his walk rate is far too high (over four batters per nine innings in the minors) and ZiPS projects a 4.96 FIP for him for the rest of the season.  His HR rate is miniscule, but Carpenter’s K/BB ratio is elite and it gives him one of the better cash floors in the game.  In addition, Carpenter has posted a .244 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year.

Other options – Howie Kendrick, Scooter Gennett

 

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Kris Bryant, CHC ($4200)

Do not be fooled for a second by Jarlin Garcia’s early success.  All signs point to major regression as his 1.09 ERA is backed by a 4.54 xFIP and he’s posted K/BB rates that aren’t major league viable.  He also only has a 40% GB rate so far in the majors, and Kris Bryant has feasted on LHP his entire career thus far.  Bryant’s only issue is price, as Strasburg gets full priority over any top hitter you feel like deploying.

Other options – Eugenio Suarez, Jeimer Candelario, Todd Frazier

 

VALUE PLAY

Alex Bregman, HOU ($3400)

Bregman gets the same treatment as I mentioned in Altuve’s blurb, but he’s usable in cash if you can’t get all the way up to some of the names mentioned above.  Bregman has posted a .363 wOBA and .201 ISO against LHP so far in his young career, and he’s settled into the five-hole for the Astros.

Other options – Anthony Rendon, Matt Chapman

 

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trea Turner, WAS ($4300)

Tyson Ross seems to have rediscovered himself this year with his 2.82 FIP and 10.03 K/9, but Trea Turner is still a good matchup play against him.  Ross is slow to the plate and has historically struggled with holding runners on the basepaths, and Turner can do a lot of damage with his legs if he gets on.  Ross struggles with command as well, as he’s walked a career 3.82 batters per nine (and has a horrific 6.80 mark last season with the Rangers).

Other options – Carlos Correa, Jose Peraza

 

VALUE PLAY

Jurickson Profar, TEX ($2700)

Profar is tough guy to ever fully endorse simply because he’s just not that good a hitter, but he has been hitting third and fifth lately and will be playing in the best park environment on the slate (the heat of Texas).  Michael Fulmer is a quality pitcher, but his career 6.84 K/9 doesn’t play well in the majors, and he’s backed by an absolutely horrendous bullpen.

Other options – Brandon Crawford, Amed Rosario, Jose Iglesias

 

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Nick Castellanos, DET ($3800)

I haven’t really touched on the Detroit hitters yet, but Castellanos would be the top option from that team (who is a sneaky stack tonight).  They are facing Matt Moore who simply cannot pitch anymore.  He’s struck out only 5.52 batters per nine while posting a pitching slash of 7.67/5.34/6.12, and Castellanos has a .235 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year.  Just check the lineup first, as Castellanos sat out yesterday’s game with the flu.

Other options – Bryce Harper, George Springer, Rhys Hoskins, Yoenis Cespedes, Khris Davis, Joey Gallo

 

VALUE PLAY

Michael Conforto/Jay Bruce, NYM ($3100/$3100)

The Mets are another solid stack that I haven’t really covered much outside of this blurb, but you’ll want one or both of these outfielders in your cash lineups tonight.  The Mets are getting an elite park boost in their favor going to Great American Ballpark, and they’re facing Homer Bailey the gas can.  Bailey has allowed 1.83 HR/9 (including to .262 ISO to LHB) this season while striking out only 13% of batters, and the Reds bullpen is still terrible.  The Mets have an IRT pushing five runs, and that could go up if Cespedes doesn’t miss any time.

Other options – Shin Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields Leonys Martin, Adam Duvall, Jesse Winker, Odubel Herrera, Brandon Nimmo, Albert Almora, Jacoby Jones

Daily MLB, DFS Lineup Advice