FanDuel lineups JUST missed for me yesterday, but DK held strong thanks to the switch to Zack Davies as my SP2 (that Mets AAA lineup was too hilarious to pass up). Tonight we get a new bunch of series to delve into, and we have a ton of top-tier starting pitchers on this slate. We’ll help you find the winning touch here @FanTeamAdvice, and make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
Gerrit Cole, HOU ($11,500)
At first glance, it seems silly to pay more for Cole with both Scherzer and deGrom coming in at cheaper tags, but Cole is honestly the better play and worth the elevated price tag. He posted an elite 35% K rate last season and has actually improved on it this year with a 38% mark, and Cole’s xFIP is over a run lower than his ERA. The Royals have been a tough draw against RHP, ranking third in wOBA, but they strike out at a very high clip as well. Cole is a monstrous -270 favorite with a slate-low 2.9 IRTA. I can’t argue if you want to pay $1000 less for Max, but know that his matchup is definitely more difficult.
Other options – Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Blake Snell
Cole Hamels, CHC ($9000)
If there wasn’t so much pitching on the high end, I’d call Hamels a cash lock, and I STILL think it’s viable to use him on FD even with the guys above. Attacking Miami has been a successful strategy all season long and it shouldn’t change tonight against Hamels who is going through a bit of a renaissance (K rate is back over a batter per inning and he has a 3.50 xFIP). Miami doesn’t strike out near as much against lefties as they do against righties, but they’re 29th in wOBA against LHP and 28th in ISO. Hamels rivals Cole in Vegas’ eyes as a -255 favorite and a 3.3 IRTA.
Other options – Chris Paddack, Walker Buehler, Merrill Kelly, Jhoulys Chacin
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4300)
If you spend into five digits at SP, players like Rizzo are going to be hard to roster, but he’s worth his tag tonight against Sandy Alcantara and a lousy Marlins pen. Alcantara has a 5.41 SIERA and only a 17.6% K rate, and the Cubs are currently leading the slate with a 5.2 IRT. Rizzo has his HHR up to 37% the last 15 games and four homers in his last six.
Other options – Rhys Hoskins, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt
Steve Pearce, BOS ($2200)
Pearce carries immense PH risk unless Mitch Moreland is also in the lineup (like yesterday), but at $2200 it’s a gamble you can take. The Red Sox have an IRT of 5.1 runs and will take on John Means and the putrid Orioles bullpen that ranks last in FIP and SIERA. Pearce has a .227 ISO against LHP since 2016 and Camden Yards elevates power from both sides.
Other options – Ji-Man Choi, Nate Lowe, CJ Cron, Yuli Gurriel
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Yadier Molina, Yan Gomes
Jose Altuve, HOU ($3900)
Unfortunately the Astros aren’t in Mexico City anymore, but we’ll settle for an IRT of five runs at home against the Royals. Altuve has a .256 ISO this season and Jake Junis is a middle-of-the-road pitcher. The Royals bullpen is also ranked 28th in SIERA, and the roof should be open tonight in Houston.
Other options – Michael Chavis, Brandon Lowe, Mike Moustakas, Kike Hernandez
Jonathan Villar, BAL ($3300)
Josh Smith has been given the starting nod for Boston tonight, but it remains to be seen how long he’ll be in the game. Smith has a solid track record as far as K’s go in the minors, but it hasn’t translated to the majors and most projection systems have him with an xFIP north of 5.00. Villar quietly has a .182 ISO against LHP over the past three years, and he’s an event player with power and speed.
Other options – Robinson Cano, Daniel DeScalso, Brian Dozier
Alex Bregman, HOU ($4300)
Bregman is a tough fade right now. As I mentioned in Altuve’s blurb, the matchup against Jake Junis isn’t great or terrible, but the Royals bullpen does provide nine innings of upside for Houston bats. Bregman is on fire right now, with five homers, ten RBIs, and 45% HHR over his last five games, and brings a speed element to the table as well.
Other options – Kris Bryant, Rafael Devers
Matt Carpenter, STL ($3200)
I feel like most value hunters at 3B will be on the Vlad train again with his price stagnant at $2700, and that’s fine. However, I think Carpenter offers even more bang for your buck at $500 more. Carpenter has a .377 wOBA and .264 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season, and Vince Velasquez has struggled on the road while also allowing 1.45 HR/9 to LHB over that same span.
Other options – Vladimir Guerrero, Justin Turner, Renato Nunez, Travis Shaw
Xander Bogaerts, BOS ($4000)
I survived the Bogaerts grand slam last night after choosing Francisco Lindor over him in cash, but tonight Bogaerts reigns supreme right off the bat. All Boston bats are in play with an elite matchup against the O’s pitching staff, and Bogaerts is hitting .375 with three homers against lefty pitching thus far this season. He’s also got a 41.2% HHR over his last five games.
Other options – Javier Baez, Adalberto Mondesi, Carlos Correa, Paul DeJong
Freddy Galvis, TOR ($2900)
As usual, the bottom end of the SS position is lousy, but Galvis is passable if you really need to save money (which you will if you go Cole at SP). Galvis has outperformed his career baselines this season, but there’s really nothing wrong with the matchup against Martin Perez who has a 4.64 xFIP this season with a lessened GB rate.
Other options – Corey Seager, Carter Kieboom, Greg Garcia
Mookie Betts/JD Martinez, BOS ($4400/$4300)
You need to lock one of these guys in, even if you use Gerrit Cole. Since the beginning of last year, Betts has a .403 wOBA and .266 ISO against LHP (with speed) and JD has a .413 wOBA and .281 ISO. They are easily the top two hitters, and one needs to be a building block. If you take the plunge on someone like Cole Hamels in cash, get both of them.
Other options – Andrew Benintendi, George Springer, Bryce Harper, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Christian Yelich
Randal Grichuk, TOR ($3000)
Grichuk is turning into a total boom-or-bust play which makes him somewhat risky for cash, but the price tag helps a lot. Since the beginning of last year, Grichuk has an .810 OPS and .222 ISO against LHP, and Martin Perez is prone to hard contact in the platoon split.
Other options – Adam Eaton, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Joey Rickard, Jackie Bradley, Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber, Nick WilliamsFantasy Baseball