FanDuel DFS MLB Picks 5/4/19

Nolan Arenado launches a homerun at Coors Field

It was yet another successful DFS day on FTA, and my Reds stacks paid off handsomely in GPPs (if only VOTTO wasn’t part of all of them). Tonight we should see very similar plays to the ones that were written yesterday, but the difference is values will be much less needed since there aren’t any stud pitchers going (as opposed to yesterday when he were overrun with them). I will be in chat tonight as usual, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Patrick Corbin, WAS ($9100)

If you want to roster simply the most skilled pitcher on the slate in cash, Corbin is a fine option at $9100, even though his matchup is less than desirable against the Phillies (4.2 IRT, sixth in ISO against LHP) plus a park downgrade. Philly is loaded with lefty mashers and Corbin has allowed 1.43 HR/9 so far this year, but his K rate still sits at an elite 29% and he’s logged a quality start in every game but one so far this year. I think you can go even cheaper in cash tonight, but Corbin is fine as the “safe” option.

Other options – Rich Hill, Jake Arrieta

VALUE PLAY

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS ($8500)

If you want to save a few dollars and take on arguably even more upside, E-Rod looks like the play. Last night we saw Chris Sale fix a lot of his early-season woes against his former team, and I think Rodriguez follows suit tonight. He’s the largest favorite on the slate at -170 with a 3.9 IRTA, and E-Rod’s 6.16 ERA is not real (3.81 SIERA). The key piece of consistency here is Rodriguez’s strikeouts, as he has a 26% K rate for the second straight season, and the White Sox lineup is loaded with K’s (24.3%).

Other options – Zack Wheeler, Joey Lucchesi, Lance Lynn, Gio Gonzalez, Dylan Bundy

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Christian Walker, ARI ($4400)

This is a slate where you’ll be able to afford a couple of top bats, but I’d restrict Walker to GPPs. Arizona does have a solid IRT of five runs in Coors, and Walker has a 39.4% HHR over his last 15 games. Kyle Freeland has gotten extremely lucky pitching to contact in Coors, and he’s allowed a 42% HHR to RHB since the ASG last year.

Other options – Daniel Murphy, Rhys Hoskins, Pete Alonso, Justin Smoak

VALUE PLAY

Ji-Man Choi, TB ($3000)

I hit on a lot of plays yesterday, but Choi was a letdown. I’m still going right back to him this evening against Dylan Bundy, who has allowed 2.86 HR/9 this year after an absurd 2.14 mark all last season. Choi has a .395 wOBA and .277 ISO against RHP since 2017, and Tampa’s 5.4 IRT once against rivals the Coors teams (and surpasses Arizona). I’m locking him once again on FD.

Other options – Joey Votto, Brandon Belt, Rowdy Tellez, Nate Lowe

Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Wilson Ramos, Buster Posey, Mike Zunino

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Brandon Lowe, TB ($3800)

The decision between Lowe and Jose Altuve is extremely difficult, especially since they’re priced the same. Ultimately I’m giving Lowe a TINY edge based on park environment, plus his HHR L15 is 10% higher than Altuve’s, but either one is great in all formats. I think Lowe will come in chalkier against the obvious attack point of Dylan Bundy, but Altuve will be the pivot in almost all my GPPs against Trevor Cahill’s 2.86 HR/9 allowed the year.

Other options – Jose Altuve, Mike Moustakas, Kike Hernandez

VALUE PLAY

Wilmer Flores, ARI ($3100)

Flores’ cash viability will depend on his lineup spot. He had been hitting third against lefties most of the year, but was sixth last night against Tyler Anderson. He still paid off his price tag, but the lower batting spot would downgrade him a touch. Flores has dropped off lately in the platoon department, but still has a .212 ISO since 2017 and is hitting in Coors Field.

Other options – Jonathan Villar, Rougned Odor, Joe Panik

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4900)

It’s really hard to fade Arenado right now, even at full prices against a pitcher (Luke Weaver) who seems to have taken a huge step forward. Arenado is simply sizzling right now, with seven doubles, nine homers, 21 RBI’s and a 33.5% HHR over his last 15 games. The Rockies have a slate-high IRT of 5.5 runs, so Vegas is thinking Luke Weaver should revert to his career 4.46 SIERA and 1.46 WHIP in Coors Field. I tend to agree, and I want Arenado in my lineup tonight.

Other options – Alex Bregman, Eduardo Escobar, Yandy Diaz, Eugenio Suarez

VALUE PLAY

Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR ($2700)

As I said yesterday, Vlad has still done nothing since being called up to the majors, but it can’t possibly last given his minor league profile. His price just keeps on dropping, and you can play him in cash along with Arenado thanks to FD’s utility spot. Toronto is getting a major park boost going to Texas and they have a 4.8 IRT. Lance Lynn has a 27% K rate against RHB since the beginning of last year, but he also has a 4.30 SIERA and a 10.2% BB rate in that span and is backed by a lousy bullpen (25th in SIERA).

Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Travis Shaw, Evan Longoria

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4800)

Whenever Arenado is the top play at 3B, it stands to reason Story will follow suit at SS. I prefer Arenado of the two if choosing one, but Story still has a baseline .246 ISO against RHP since 2017 and has the elusive speed element that Arenado does not. Both are keystones of stacks, and either is fine in cash.

Other options – Elvis Andrus, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts

VALUE PLAY

Brandon Crawford, SF ($2100)

Yesterday I punted SS with Crawford to spend up in other spots, and today I may do the same. He hits sixth against lefties and has a .177 ISO over a three-year period in that split. Tanner Roark has a better long-term profile than Sonny Gray, but he’s walked almost five batters per innings this year to go along with posting a 4.48 SIERA. As we saw yesterday, the Reds bullpen is bad, too.

Other options – Andrelton Simmons, Amed Rosario, Willy Adames

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4200)

Blackmon is another really tough fade tonight, and I think you have the means to pay for both him and Blackmon if you use Crawford at SS and fit the Rays values in. Blackmon has a 1.110 OPS at home since the beginning of 2017, and he has a 31% HHR over his last ten games. There are arguably other outfielders that rival Blackmon’s production on this slate, but his price tag really sticks out given the fact that his other power teammates are $600-700 more.

Other options – Mike Trout, Tommy Pham, David Dahl, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Joey Gallo, Shin Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Juan Soto

VALUE PLAY

Jesse Winker/Yasiel Puig, CIN ($3000/$2600)

I was right on with this call yesterday and I’m absolutely going back to at least Winker in cash tonight. He has a .278 ISO this season, and you know what’s crazy? His BABIP says he’s actually unlucky right now. If the hit tool is legit, we haven’t seen peak Winker yet, and now he’s hitting third for the Reds. Puig is also way too cheap as he profiles as a potential 30/20 guy, and his HHR rate over the last 15 games sits at 30.2%. I can see playing both tonight against Dereck Rodriguez who has only an 8% swinging strike rate and a 4.58 SIERA.

Other options – Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Billy McKinney, Derek Dietrich, Delino DeShields, Hunter Pence, Avisail Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier, Jeff McNeil, Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes

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