It’s the last day of May, and I’m writing this article from a school bus on the way to a jazz competition with 20 teens (if the articles stop after today, now you know why). We have a full 15-game Friday slate to tackle now, and I will be on chat tonight despite a very full weekend schedule with this competition. Hit me up on twitter @jac3600 for any info about joining our amazing community at @FanTeamAdvice as well.
Trevor Bauer, CLE ($10,500)
The Rockies are facing a gas can in Coors tonight plus there are other warm weather hitting environments, so we’re looking to hopefully spend down at SP in cash. If that’s not your bag, Bauer looks like the top choice despite the fact that he’s allowed a 40.1% HHR and walked a career high 11.3% of batters thus far this season. The White Sox still have the fourth highest K rate against RHP and Bauer is still rocking a 26.8% K rate. He makes a better GPP play for me tonight with a 4.2 IRTA and a park downgrade, but he can win you those tournaments (he’s also far too cheap on DK).
Other options – Chris Sale, Caleb Smith, Zack Wheeler
Mike Foltynewicz, ATL ($7300)
There are a few pitchers in the 7k range on FD that I think are cash viable given the makeup of the slate that has such a focus on offense. Foltynewicz was a mess to start the year but his velocity is back up to 96 MPH and he’s now posted two straight quality starts (the most recent one with 7 Ks as well). Detroit is losing the DH traveling to Atlanta, and they rank 29th in both wOBA and ISO against RHP with a 26.2% K rate against them as well. The Tigers are one of five teams with an IRT under four runs, and I think Folty makes sense despite the hot weather in Atlanta.
Other options – Joey Lucchesi, German Marquez, Jose Berrios, Kenta Maeda, Chris Archer
Daniel Murphy, COL ($3900)
Even on a day where all 30 teams are in action, you’re going to want to aggressively load up on Rockies. Edwin Jackson has allowed just over two homers per nine innings since 2017 and only has a 12.5% K rate with a 5.14 SIERA. Pitching to contact and relying heavily on flyballs is disastrous in Coors Field, and it’s the reason the Rockies have an epic IRT of 7.1 runs. Murphy has a .197 ISO against RHP since 2017, and should hit no lower than fifth.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Justin Smoak, Max Muncy, Paul Goldschmidt, Gary Sanchez
Brandon Belt, SF ($3300)
The Giants get a rare moment in the sun as one of the better offenses to target for cheap value tonight. They are getting an immense park boost going from San Fran to Baltimore, and a league boost as well as they get to add the DH. The regression train is starting to hit Andrew Cashner with his 40.3% HHR allowed, and his SIERA has gone up almost a full run in the month of May. Cashner has allowed 1.64 HR/9 to LHB over the last three years and Belt has a .188 ISO against RHP in that span. The Orioles bullpen is also last in FIP and ISO allowed.
Other options – Edwin Encarnacion, Logan Forsythe, Yonder Alonso, Ryan O’Hearn
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Tony Wolters, Stephen Vogt, Kyle Farmer
D.J. LeMahieu, NYY ($3500)
This play is strictly GPP only as DJ faces off against the mighty Chris Sale, but Vegas is completely backing the Yankee bats tonight with an IRT of five runs (which I don’t think I’ve ever seen against Sale). Sale’s 33.7% K rate gives any Yankee major bust potential, but LeMahieu has a .370 wOBA and a 45.5% HHR against LHP so far this year in pinstripes. A Yankee stack of players will carry single-digit ownership in GPPs.
Other options – Ketel Marte, Brandon Lowe
Jason Kipnis, CLE ($2700)
Kipnis’ lineup spot will have to be checked on this one because he’s hit anywhere from second to seventh this month. If he’s in a good spot, he’s a nice cheap value against Dylan Covey who is someone I’m never shy about attacking. Covey has limited hard contact to a 24.7% rate but it’s all smoke and mirrors as he’s posted a 6.95 SIERA with a minuscule 11.5% K rate. He’s also allowed a 1.55 HR/9 to LHB the last three seasons, and Cleveland has an IRT of 5.5 runs.
Other options – Brendan Rodgers, Joe Panik, Niko Goodrum, Nicky Lopez
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4800)
I know we’re going to get questions in chat tonight about which is the better play between Arenado and Trevor Story, and I’m saying right now it’s a coin flip depending on your roster makeup. You need one of them no matter how much you spend on SP, and I will likely have both given the fact that I’m more focused on a cheap SP for cash. Edwin Jackson has allowed 2.24 HR/9 to RHB since 2017, and Arenado has a career OPS over 1.000 against RHP in Coors Field. He’s worth every penny.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, Hunter Dozier, Yoan Moncada, Mike Moustakas
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($3300)
If you use an expensive SP and can only pick between one of Arenado/Story, my advice would be to use Story and save at 3B with Jose Ramirez. He’s had an incredible disappointing start to his season with an ISO of .093 and has been dropped to fifth in the Indians order, but this is a guy who had a .282 ISO and a combined 73 homers and steals a year ago. Dylan Covey is a great way to get back on track, so I’m going to continue to buy low here. Ramirez will be 5k in a month.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Josh Donaldson, Tommy LaStella
Trevor Story, COL ($4600)
With a viable 3B value and Story being $200 cheaper than Arenado, I have Story as the top per-dollar play on the slate, slightly edging out his powerful 3B teammate. Story’s power numbers in Coors are almost identical to Arenado’s, and he adds that extra element of speed as well (27 SBs last year, ten already this year). Story is the first hitter I’m locking in tonight.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Alex Bregman, Adalberto Mondesi, Paul DeJong
Jonathan Villar, BAL ($3300)
Villar is still too cheap on FD at $3300, and I love him in GPPs (or even as a UTIL in cash). Drew Pomeranz looks like a pitcher who is just about done, as he’s walking way too many hitters (10.7% BB rate) while also allowing a 37.7% HHR and a 4.64 SIERA. Villar offers power and speed, and has a .182 ISO against LHP since 2017.
Other options – Manny Machado, Dansby Swanson, Brandon Crawford, Mike Freeman
David Dahl, COL ($4000)
Spoiler alert – it’s just more Rockies from here on out. Dahl has been hitting second or third against RHP since Charlie Blackmon went on the DL, and he has a .347 wOBA and .226 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. I want at least three Rockies hitters in cash tonight, and a Story/Arenado/Dahl combo in any format looks like fire.
Other options – Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Christian Yelich, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Ian Desmond, Joey Gallo, Juan Soto, Whit Merrifield, Ronald Acuna
Raimel Tapia, COL ($3500)
FD finally realized that Tapia leading off in Coors at 3k was silly, but he’s still the best cheaper option on the slate at $3500. Tapia only has a 10% HHR since moving into the everyday leadoff role, but a potential five PAs against Edwin Jackson and the Toronto bullpen (23rd in FIP) looks juicy. He’s also quietly hit for a .218 ISO against RHP this season.
Other options – Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler, Shohei Ohtani, Randal Grichuk, Victor Robles, Adam Eaton, Oscar Mercado, Kyle Schwarber, Jesse Winker, Yasiel Puig, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Mike YasztremskiFantasy Baseball