FanDuel was bad yesterday, but DraftKings just kept rolling along. I’m a big fan of tonight’s ten-game slate, which is complete with stud pitchers, value pitchers, and the Rockies who already have an IRT of almost seven runs. It will be difficult to access all facets on FanDuel with the tighter pricing (DK is easier) but we’ll do our best for you in FTA+ chat. I’m also available on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
James Paxton, SEA ($9800)
Max Scherzer is obviously the top option, and he could strike out 20 of these Orioles tonight. However, I’m fine saving the $2000 for Paxton and using the extra funds for the immense upside of the Coors bats. Paxton is the largest favorite on the slate (-270) with the lowest IRTA (2.9), and Texas has the second highest K rate in the league with a 26% mark. He’s in his pitcher-friendly home park, and he’s flashed stuff this year that’s nothing short of CY Young caliber. If you want to pay all the way up for Max, I certainly don’t argue, but the savings is a significant plus for me tonight.
Other options – Max Scherzer, Shohei Ohtani
Ross Stripling, LAD ($7500)
Stripling will be a chalky value play in GPPs tonight, but that shouldn’t discourage you from taking him and stacking Coors around him. Philly’s IRT against Stripling is 3.3 runs (lower than anyone’s except Paxton) and the Phillies have the second highest K rate against RHP. Stripling has been incredible this season, with a 29.6% K rate, and his leash is getting longer with every start.
Other options – Kyle Hendricks, Sean Manaea, Clayton Richard, Jose Urena, Jon Gray, Julio Teheran
Brandon Belt, SF ($4200)
The Giants have an IRT of 4.8 runs which is low for a Coors team (Jon Gray is on the mound), but Belt has been incredible against RHP over the past three years (.380 wOBA, .220 ISO). Gray has allowed a .171 ISO to LHB in that span and predictably does worse at home. This is not where I want to spend the big bucks in cash, but Giants stacks should go a bit unowned in GPPs, and Belt is a great one-off play.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Desmond
Cody Bellinger, LAD ($3300)
Bellinger is a fine value if you need the savings at 1B (which you probably should). The park factor isn’t the greatest in his home L.A. park, but Philly pitcher Zack Eflin has allowed 1.60 HR/9 to LHB since the beginning of last year and Bellinger has a .286 ISO against RHP so far in his career. The Phillies’ bullpen is highly suspect as well.
Other options – Albert Pujols, Eric Hosmer, Max Muncy, Logan Morrison
Catcher values – Buster Posey, Chris Iannetta, Yasmani Grandal, Mike Zunino
Ozzie Albies, ATL ($3800)
Albies has cooled off a little (14% hard hit rate last 15 games), but it’s hard not to like against Jason Vargas, who has posted a 10.66 ERA and allowed 2.66 HR/9 so far this season. Albies has a combined 20 homers and steals this season to go along with a .261 ISO, and the Mets bullpen has fallen into the bottom ten in the majors in FIP.
Other options – Whit Merrifield, Brian Dozier, Asdrubal Cabrera
Ian Kinsler, LAA ($2600)
It would REALLY nice if Kinsler would lead off. He’s posted two nice games in a row now (including a monster 44.1 FD performance last night), and is hopefully busting out of this season long slump he’s been mired in. Mike Fiers is a great matchup for Kinsler as he’s allowed a .200 ISO to RHB over the last two years, and the Angels have a healthy IRT of five runs.
Other options – Jed Lowrie, Josh Harrison, Starlin Castro, Jose Pirela
Nolan Arenado, COL ($5400)
Part of the reason I’m OK fading Scherzer is because of how much of a must I view Arenado tonight (I’m not sure this sentence is grammatically sound, but we’ll just move on). Arenado has posted a .409 wOBA and .277 ISO against LHP over the past three years and gets to take aim at Derek Holland who has allowed 1.62 HR/9 to RHB in that span. As this time, the Rockies have an IRT of 6.7 runs which is by far the highest on the slate, and Arenado has a 33.5% hard hit rate the last ten games.
Other options – Mike Moustakas, Anthony Rendon, Justin Turner, Evan Longoria, Miguel Sano
Zack Cozart/Luis Valbuena, LAA ($3100/$2100)
If you’re hell bent on Scherzer, Arenado will prove difficult. In that case, I recommend one of the Angels values. Cozart would obviously be the best one if he continues to lead off, but Valbuena would be a possible pure punt option if you want to get Scherzer plus some top bats (although Arenado would the best one which defeats the purpose anyway). Mike Fiers has been equally bad against LHB over the last two years, and Valbuena is a nice value if he’s hitting fifth or sixth.
Other options – Kyle Seager, Ryan McMahon, Cory Spangenberg
Trevor Story, COL ($4400)
Story is an excellent option tonight against Holland. He gets a huge boost against pitchers that are contact oriented, and Derek Holland has a 16% K rate over the last four seasons. It’s up to a 21% mark this year, but all indications are that it shouldn’t last. Story has destroyed left-handed pitching for a .423 wOBA and .333 ISO in his career, and is as strong a HR bet as anyone this evening.
Other options – Trea Turner, Brandon Crawford
Jean Segura, SEA ($3300)
The Mariners are a sneaky source of production that will go low-owned in their pitcher-friendly home park. Pitcher-friendly or not, Matt Moore has been BAD this year with a 7.99 ERA, 5.70 xFIP and 4.54 BB/9. Segura has power and speed, and the Texas bullpen behind Moore is ranked 25th in xFIP.
Other options – Addison Russell, Daniel Robertson
Mike Trout, LAA ($5400)
You have to choose between Arenado and Trout tonight as your big bat, and Arenado gets my vote. That’s not to say that Trout isn’t right on par with him, however, as the best hitter on the planet facing off against Mike Fiers and his reverse-split tendencies. Trout himself has a .424 wOBA and .245 ISO against RHP over the last four years and can contribute in all five categories any night. He’s viable in all formats, but will likely only make my GPP lineups.
Other options – Charlie Blackmon, Bryce Harper, Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl, Andrew McCutchen, Gorkys Hernandez, Mitch Haniger
Nelson Cruz, SEA ($3200)
Nelson Cruz was underpriced yesterday against a righty, but it’s a whole new ballgame when he’s not priced correctly against a lefty pitcher. Matt Moore is an extreme FD hurler, and Cruz has decimated lefties for a .408 wOBA and .292 ISO over the past three years. I can’t see making a cash lineup without him no matter who the pitcher is.
Other options – Gerardo Parra, Noel Cuevas, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo, Max Kepler, Ender Inciarte, Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Matt Joyce, Joc Pederson, Guillermo Heredia, Kole Calhoun