Another decisive win on FanDuel, and we’re now up to seven big victories in a row there! Nothing to do but keep rolling, and we have a tidy little nine-gamer to tackle this evening. There are a slew of pitching options to roll with and another Coors slate, so let’s get right down to business. I’ll see all my FTA besties in chat tonight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Blake Snell, TB ($11,800)
Snell is easily the top pitching option on the board, but he’s also priced as such which could make him difficult to roster tonight (even on FD where pricing in looser). Snell is a massive -237 favorite with an IRTA of three runs, and the Blue Jays have the fifth highest K rate against LHP with a 26.8% mark. If enough values pop up, Snell is cash viable, but he’s preferable on DK where you can complement him with a cheap SP2.
Other options – Walker Buehler, Madison Bumgarner
Aaron Nola, PHI ($8900)
If you’re looking to save some money to fit in expensive bats, Nola seems to be the most sensible choice. He does not have an easy matchup by any means, as the Cardinals rank 8th in HHR and 10th in LD rate while also striking out at the ninth lowest rate against RHP (21.7%). However, Nola’s K upside has returned, as he’s racked up a swinging strike rate in the double digits in three of his last four outings. There is definitely run prevention risk here with the Cards, but $8900 is a nice price to pay for someone who finished in the top three in the Cy Young voting last season who seems to have regained his strikeout predictability.
Other options – Noah Syndergaard, Pablo Lopez, Robbie Ray, Reynaldo Lopez, Kevin Gausman
Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4200)
Neither team in Coors Field has the highest IRT on the slate today. That honor goes to the Braves who have an IRT of 5.8 runs and they’ll be hitting in temperature that is going to reach the mid-90s. They are facing Anibal Sanchez who is clearly a shell of whatever we saw last year, and lefties have brutalized him for a .404 wOBA and 2.60 HR/9 this season. Freeman is a platoon monster, with a .397 wOBA and .247 ISO since the beginning of last year, and he’s a top target in all formats.
Other options – Rhys Hoskins, Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt
Miguel Cabrera, DET ($2800)
Cabrera’s power numbers have predictably fallen off as his career nears its end, but there are still nights that we can target him as a solid value. Tonight the Tigers have an IRT of five runs despite facing John Means who has been Baltimore’s best pitcher. There is tremendous room for regression with Means, as his 2.96 ERA is backed by a 4.72 SIERA and he rarely makes it past five innings. Once he’s out, Detroit gets to feast on Baltimore’s bottom-ranked bullpen, making them a sneaky cheap stack and easy access to value bats in cash.
Other options – Max Muncy, Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Dixon, Yonder Alonso
Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Willson Contreras, Carson Kelly, Blake Swihart
Brandon Lowe, TB ($3700)
Despite hitting in a pitcher’s park, Tampa Bay is one of the sneakier stacks today going up against Trent Thornton and his 1.73 HR/9 allowed on the major league level. The Rays have an IRT of only 4.5 runs which seems low even in their home park, and Lowe has smashed RHP for a .291 ISO and 48.2% HHR this year. He’s already hitting cleanup in tonight’s lineup, and is one of the best GPP plays of the night (I’d save your money for better hitting environments in cash).
Other options – None
Nicky Lopez, KC ($2800)
Lopez is a fine value for someone who will hit first or second for the Royals. They are in Chicago which should give him a decent shot at five PAs, and KC has an IRT of 4.6 runs against Reynaldo Lopez who has a 5.03 SIERA and a 10.1% BB rate this year. He’s the most logical cash play I can see, unless a cheaper value arises.
Other options – Brendan Rodgers, Ozzie Albies, Cesar Hernandez, Brian Dozier
Eduardo Escobar, ARI ($4600)
What a weird slate for third base. Ordinarily Arenado is the clear choice against a lefty in Coors, but I actually have Escobar over him in the same game as he’s facing a FAR inferior pitcher in Jeff Hoffman. The kicker here is that I’m not going to use EITHER of these guys in cash in favor of the value play below. Escobar gets the benefit of facing Jeff Hoffman who has still allowed a 4.80 FIP in his career to LHB despite being much worse in the reverse split. Escobar is an elite GPP option for an Arizona team with an IRT of 5.6 tonight.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman, Yoan Moncada
Josh Donaldson, ATL ($3300)
Donaldson is the cash choice for me at 3B at a price tag that is far too cheap. Since the start of 2017, Donaldson has posted a .240 ISO against same-handed pitchers, and Anibal Sanchez has allowed a .214 ISO to RHB in that span. He’s my #DFSHRcall of the night, and a cash lock at his price tag for a Braves team with an IRT pushing six runs.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Renato Nunez, Dawel Lugo
Trevor Story, COL ($4600)
The Rockies face a skilled pitcher in Robbie Ray, but they’re still one of the top stacks tonight with a 5.4 IRT. There’s a lot of downside with Story’s K potential coupled with Ray’s K upside, but Ray also has a horrific 12.4% BB rate and 43.3% HHR allowed this season. At the very least, load up in GPPs on Rockies, and I have no issue with one of their big righty bats in cash either.
Other options – Javier Baez, Trea Turner, Adalberto Mondesi
Jonathan Villar, BAL ($3300)
I’m not really sure why Villar’s price tag has dropped so much in recent days, but here we are. The Orioles are another fine team to target tonight with an IRT of 5.1, and they’re facing a pitcher in Ryan Carpenter who has been horrible in his brief time in the majors (3.20 HR/9 allowed, 38.8% GB rate). Villar has blazing speed and a .181 ISO against LHP since the beginning of 2017, and Detroit’s bullpen also has a FIP well over 5.00.
Other options – Dansby Swanson, Nick Ahmed, Ronny Rodriguez
Ronald Acuna, ATL ($4000)
Acuna culminates my Braves love in this article. He will lead off for the top offense on the slate, and he’s posted a .383 wOBA and .248 ISO against RHP in his brief time in the majors. I’ve already spoken of Anibal Sanchez’s troubles, and the Nats bullpen is also 29th in FIP. Lock and load.
Other options – Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Ketel Marte, Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson, Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger, Trey Mancini, Nick Castellanos
Niko Goodrum, DET ($3100)
Goodrum is really not the best hitter, but he’s cheap and leading off in a great context against John Means and the Orioles bullpen. Goodrum homered last night and his HHR is up lately, plus he’s actually posted a .382 wOBA against LHP this season. I’d love him more if he were under 3k, but Niko is a pretty strong value on this slate.
Other options – Adam Eaton, Victor Robles, Joc Pederson, Alex Gordon, Jorge Soler, Raimel Tapia, Eloy Jimenez, Leury Garcia, Dexter Fowler, Christin Stewart, Joey RickardFantasy Baseball