I’m finishing May on a heater (moreso on DK than FD) so let’s finish the month strong. We have a 14-game slate to tackle with no real focus on any starting pitching, so offense will be the name of the game (we still have Coors). I will be joining the FTA+ chat fray tonight and helping out with setting the best cash and GPP lineups. I’m also on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
Kenta Maeda, LAD ($9300)
People may flock to Charlie Morton at under 10k since he destroyed the Yankees for 60 FD points last time, but be wary here. The Yankees are first in wRC+ against RHP and Morton is far better against lefties which the Yanks lack a bit. Maeda rates a little better tonight, but I’d still rather try and save a little more. Maeda’s innings are not always the safest, but the Phillies rank 20th in wRC+ against RHP with the second highest K rate against them. He’s a solid -175 with a 3.3 IRTA tonight, making him playable in all formats.
Other options – Charlie Morton
Tyson Ross, SD ($8400)
In all likelihood, I’ll be using Ross in cash. He seems to have found himself again after a lengthy bout with injuries, and gets a matchup tonight that completely suits his strengths. Ross has been utterly dominant against RHB in his career (.205 wOBA, .106 ISO, 25% K rate) and the Marlins are generally only able to get a maximum of three of them in there. Miami ranks 28th in wRC+ against RHP with the ninth highest K rate, and their 3.2 IRT is the lowest on the slate.
Other options – Blake Snell, Zack Godley, Kyle Gibson, Dan Straily, Felix Hernandez, Anibal Sanchez
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI ($3600)
It’s easier to save at the C/1B in cash today, but Goldy is still priced for his slump earlier in the month. Luis Castillo SHOULDN’T be a tough matchup, but he’s been plagued by the long ball this year (1.73 HR/9 allowed). Goldschmidt has a 34.5% hard hit rate over his last 15 games, and Arizona’s coming in with a decent 4.6 IRT.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Mitch Moreland, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Desmond
Yuli Gurriel, HOU ($2500)
Houston is a confusing choice today. They’re ranked second in wRC+ against LHP but CC Sabathia has limited hard contact well and is backed by an elite bullpen. Ultimately, Gurriel is too cheap for the cleanup hitter in this lineup, and he had a .363 wOBA and .206 ISO against LHP last year.
Other options – Cody Bellinger, Eric Hosmer, Brad Miller, Chris Davis, Greg Bird
Catcher values – Buster Posey, Chris Iannetta, Victor Martinez, Mitch Garver
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4100)
Altuve is presented with the same dilemma I mentioned with Gurriel, but he’s not only a better hitter but he’s beyond sizzling hot right now. He homered yesterday against the Yankees and he had ten hits in a row against Cleveland pitching the day before. I mentioned CC’s success with limiting damage this year, but Altuve is an elite .401 wOBA and .202 ISO against LHP over the last four years, and he has speed to boot. He’s a great option in all formats.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Asdrubal Cabrera, Brian Dozier
Ian Kinsler, LAA ($2600)
I’d prefer to pay up at least for Dozier in cash, but if you absolutely need to punt here Kinsler is the option as long as he’s leading off (he did the other day but then bounced to seventh as well). Michael Fulmer is a decent pitcher but comes with almost no K upside (career 7.02 K/9). Kinsler has been awful this year but gets additional upside against the Tigers bullpen that ranks last in FIP and xFIP.
Other options – Jonathan Schoop, Jonathan Villar, Kolten Wong
Nolan Arenado, COL ($5400)
Arenado at Coors will always be the top play, but he’s far less necessary in cash today (I prefer to prioritize Blackmon and even Altuve rates better for me tonight). Jeff Samardzija has lost his K rate this season (15.6%), and Arenado is once again posting gaudy hard contact numbers. There’s a definite value at the position, so my Arenado exposure will come in GPPs tonight.
Other options – Kris Bryant, Josh Donaldson, Matt Carpenter, Jeimer Candelario, Evan Longoria
Miguel Sano, MIN ($3300)
Sano homered yesterday and leads the way as far as cash values go. He’s popped off a .368 wOBA and .269 ISO against LHP over the past two years and Danny Duffy who has a 5.95 FIP and has allowed 2.15 HR/9 to go along with a wretched K/BB rate. The Royals bullpen stinks too, and Minnesota is coming in with an IRT of five runs.
Other options – Jake Lamb, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez
Trevor Story, COL ($4100)
Story is showing off some speed to go along with his immense power (18 combined homers and steals), and his K rate is actually decreasing. I wouldn’t ordinarily target Story against someone like Samardzija (who has always had K upside), but the Shark has posted an absolutely brutal 6.23/6.00/6.07 pitching slash while walking six batters per nine innings. Full Colorado stacks are firmly in play, and Story is a great option in all formats.
Other options – Manny Machado, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts
Jedd Gyorko, STL ($2900)
Gyorko is the only positive cheap value, and he’s had a .200 ISO against same-handed pitching over the last three years. Zack Davies is decent against RHB, but the park shift to Milwaukee is extreme (especially if the roof is open). Davies is only striking out six batters per nine innings and has a 4.75 FIP.
Other options – Marcus Semien, Amed Rosario
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($5400)
I’d try and jam in Blackmon if you can, as he has a .410 wOBA and .282 ISO against RHP over the past two years and Samardzija has allowed a .206 ISO to LHB in that span. Throw in the speed upside Blackmon brings, and the Rockies have a slate-high IRT of six runs. If you can’t afford Blackmon, make sure to get in David Dahl or Carlos Gonzalez to get the exposure to the Rockies outfield.
Other options – Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Mike Trout, David Dahl, Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, George Springer, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain
Nelson Cruz, SEA ($3100)
Cruz is too cheap. Plain and simple. He’s not getting any park upgrade by hitting at home, but $3100 is just mispriced, especially against Austin Bibens-Dirkx (I hate typing his name). The Texas righty was horrid last year with a 5.68 FIP and a 12% K rate, and Cruz has a .366 wOBA and .256 ISO against same-handed pitching over the last four years.
Other options – Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Starling Marte, David Peralta, Curtis Granderson, Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Leonys Martin, Joc Pederson, Dexter Fowler, Robbie Grossman, Byron Buxton, Kole Calhoun