DraftKings has been hit or miss lately (I won yesterday), but I’m up to six decisive wins in a row on FD and I want to keep it going. FanDuel, who is notorious for leaving games off slates, has actually included both 6:40 contests so lock will be a half hour earlier tonight there (DK will still be at 7:10 EST). Make sure to join us in chat as we’ll consistently remind you of this, and follow me on twitter @jac3600
Stephen Strasburg, WAS ($10,600)
Strasburgh is the most skilled pitcher on the slate and therefore warrants GPP consideration, but we want Rockies bats and some other top option hitters as well so we’re going cheaper at SP in cash. Strasburg has a 30.6% K rate backed by a 15% swinging strike rate, but the Braves only strike out 21.7% of the time. He’s an elite tournament play.
Other options – Matthew Boyd, Masahiro Tanaka, Lucas Giolito
Rich Hill, LAD ($8800)
I don’t think I can fade Hill at his price tag on FD. Hill has an elite 3.26 SIERA and a 28.6% K rate with a minuscule 4.6% BB rate. The Mets are 22nd in runs scored with the sixth highest K rate against LHP, and Hill is a -210 favorite with a 3.3 IRTA (lowest on the slate). More importantly, you can fit multiple big bats with Hill thanks to FD’s loose pricing.
Other options – Trevor Richards, Marco Gonzalez, Dylan Bundy, Jeff Samardzija, Ryan Yarbrough
Daniel Murphy, COL ($3600)
Murphy is the first of many Rockies you’ll see in this article as Merrill Kelly is fully attackable ANYWHERE, let alone in Coors Field. Kelly has allowed a 40.8% HHR this season while posting a 5.22 SIERA, and Daniel Murphy has as .222 ISO against RHP for the last three seasons. He’s firmly entrenched in the fifth spot or higher with Charlie Blackmon on the IL, and his price is really too cheap.
Other options – Gary Sanchez, Josh Bell, Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt, Dan Vogelbach
Joey Votto, CIN ($2900)
Votto has finally started to show signs of life after a ridiculously slow start, as he has ten hits over his last four games with a 30.6% HHR. The Reds once again have an IRT of 5.1 runs after beating on Pittsburgh in both games of the doubleheader yesterday, and PIT’s bullpen has the lowest SIERA in the month of May (plus they’re tired). Jordan Lyles has pitched well this year but there’s reason to believe regression will come (2.81 ERA, 3.89 SIERA) and he’s allowed 1.42 HR/9 to LHB the last three years.
Other options – Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Olson, Yonder Alonso, Jesus Aguilar
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, JT Realmuto, Omar Narvaez, Yadier Molina
D.J. LeMahieu, NYY ($3600)
Opportunity cost is basically non-existent at the 2B position so there’s no reason to spend, but DJ is an integral part of Yankees stacks with their 5.5 IRT. Eric Lauer is getting a massive park downgrade going to Yankee Stadium and he’s allowed a 39.3% HHR this year with only a 7.3% swinging strike rate. Pay down in cash, though.
Other options – Michael Chavis
Derek Dietrich, CIN ($2700)
Dietrich is still inexplicably $2700 on FD and he just shouldn’t be. Dietrich has been the Reds best hitter this year with an elite .996 OPS (1.036 against RHP, along with a .222 ISO). He also has a 33.3% HHR over his last 15 games and has already been slated into the cleanup spot again. He’s a cash lock for me.
Other options – Brendan Rodgers, Adam Frazier, Nicky Lopez, Kike Hernandez, Jack Mayfield
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4800)
There are other options at 3B so Arenado isn’t someone you NEED today, but if you can get all the way I’d really like to. Arenado has seven straight multi-hit games with four homers and a 47.8% HHR in that span. He doesn’t have the platoon edge but Arenado’s career OPS at home of well over 1.100 plays will in any format, especially against Merrill Kelly who is overmatched in this one.
Other options – Eduardo Escobar, Alex Bregman, Yoan Moncada, Eugenio Suarez, Matt Carpenter
Justin Turner, LAD ($3200)
Opportunity cost is high for cash at the 3B position so you’ll want someone above, but Turner will have the platoon edge against Steven Matz who has allowed a 42.9% HHR this season. Turner should hit second for the Dodgers, and they have an IRT of 4.9 runs.
Other options – Vlad Guerrero, Colin Moran, Daniel Robertson
Trevor Story, COL ($4600)
Story’s latest game was an 0-5 day with five Ks, but we just need to have a short memory about that one. Prior to that, Story had four homers and eight RBI over his previous six games with a 40% HHR, and he’s another one (like Arenado) with a career OPS over 1.000 at home. Roster him with confidence tonight.
Other options – Adalberto Mondesi, Carlos Correa, Gleyber Torres, Paul DeJong
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($3400)
David Price is one of the better pitchers on the slate and there are some BAD ones, so I’m not really focused on Cleveland and their IRT of 3.7 that much. That said, in no way should Lindor even be $3400, and he’s immediately cash viable based on that price tag (and is an elite GPP option). In addition to having speed, Lindor has also posted a .380 wOBA and .224 ISO against LHP since last year.
Other options – Marcus Semien, Jonathan Villar, Willy Adames
Bryce Harper, PHI ($4200)
Just as a side note on Harper, he’s $4300 on DK which is flat-out ridiculous, and I may roster him in 100% of my lineups over there. He’s more appropriately priced on FD, but he’s still the top option on this full slate. Harper is coming around after his slump, and his 10-day HHR is now up over 35%. It’s going to be in the 80s in Philly with the wind blowing straight out to RF, and Adam Wainwright has allowed a .345 wOBA and .160 ISO to LHB since last year.
Other options – Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana, David Dahl, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, Aaron Hicks
Ramiel Tapia, COL ($3000)
Tapia is officially the leadoff hitter for the Rockies with Blackmon on the IL, and there’s no reason at all why his price tag hasn’t moved from $3000. I’ve already touched on the many reasons Merrill Kelly should struggle, and Tapia himself has posted a very nice .229 ISO against RHP. Add in the Coors factor, and he’s basically free on this slate.
Other options – Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Avisail Garcia, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Jesse Winker, Yasiel Puig, Jarrod Dyson, Niko Goodrum, Christin Stewart