FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 5/26/18


Well Scherzer was a bum last night.  Thank goodness Ross Stripling was my SP2 on DK and easily propelled me to a nice day.  FanDuel wasn’t so fortunate, so let’s look to get it back today.  Today’s article will actually deal with FanDuel’s 4:05 slate which features eight games as opposed to the six contests on tonight’s main card.  I will attempt to be on chat for both (I definitely will be on tonight), and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

On tonight’s slate, my initial take is to load up on Coors and Yankees, and lock in Alex Wood as your SP against San Diego (Carlos Carrasco and Lance McCullers are opposing each other and the matchups are far worse).

 

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Aaron Nola, PHI ($9300)

Nola is a pretty easy cash choice on the early slate.  He’ll take on the Blue Jays in his home park which means they’ll be losing the DH, and Toronto ranks 22nd in wRC+ against RHP and has the seventh highest K rate against them.  Nola is a wide splits pitcher who has utterly dominated RHB in his career (34% K rate since the beginning of last year).  He’s currently a -185 favorite with a 3.6 IRTA (both slate bests).

Other options – Tanner Roark

 

VALUE PLAY

Ryne Stanek, TB ($5500)

If you want to load up on the top batters in GPP, Stanek is the route I would suggest.  Stanek has incredible issues with walks which makes him unsafe for cash, but he has a career 31.6% K rate between the majors and minors.  Baltimore still has the highest K rate in the league against RHP, and the re-addition of Mark Trumbo to the lineup only enhances that.

Other options – Jack Flaherty, Francisco Liriano, Chase Anderson, Jaime Garcia

 

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Jose Abreu, CHW ($3900)

Abreu is a great option in all formats today.  His batted ball data is off the charts (43% hard hit rate over his last 15 games) and he has a .279 ISO against LHP over his last three years.  Francisco Liriano has pitched fairly well this year, but his BB and K rates are both trending in the wrong direction and he’s backed by the league’s worst bullpen.  Abreu is underpriced given the context this afternoon.

Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Justin Smoak, Salvador Perez

 

VALUE PLAY

Brad Miller, TB ($2400)

Tampa Bay traded Denard Span and Alex Colome yesterday, and the resulting lineup thrust Miller into the leadoff spot.  If he’s there again he’s a fantastic value at $2400, and the Rays have an IRT of 4.7 runs at home which really tells you something about the opposing pitcher.  Andrew Cashner has been lucky for years now and the FB rate is finally catching up to him (1.79 HR/9 allowed this year).  Miller has posted a very adequate .197 ISO against RHP since the beginning of 2015.

Other options – CJ Cron, Matt Olson, Wilmer Flores

Catcher values – Wilson Ramos, Manny Pina, Victor Martinez, Robinson Chirinos

 

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Whit Merrifield, KC ($3800)

There’s no need to spend up at 2B in cash, but Merrifield’s event upside makes him a great GPP option as a one-off or part of a Royals stack.  Merrifield had a combined 53 homers and steals last year and is already up to 16 this season, and is facing Bartolo Colon who is directly in the path of the regression train due to an almost non-existent K rate.  The heat of Texas certainly helps too.

Other options – Cesar Hernandez, Asdrubal Cabrera

 

VALUE PLAY

Jonathan Villar, MIL ($2500)

Villar’s lineup spots are all over the place, but he’s a fine option today no matter where he lands (I’ll be happy with sixth).  He’s much better from the right side (.171 ISO last three years) and is facing Jason Vargas who has a 6.57 FIP and has allowed 2.60 HR/9 this season.  Villar was a colossal bust last season, but don’t forget he’s two years removed from a combined 81 homers and steals.  The Brewers have an IRT of five runs and are one of the best early stacks.

Other options – Wilmer Difo, Rougned Odor, Joey Wendle

 

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Mike Moustakas, KC ($4000)

Moose Tacos is another worthy big spend on this slate.  Bartolo Colon has allowed 1.59 HR/9 to LHB over the past four years and Moustakas has been a consistent source of power lately (.245 ISO last three years).  He’s once again murdering right-handed pitching (.393 wOBA and .276 ISO), and he’ll hit third on the road in the heat of Texas

Other options – Anthony Rendon, Travis Shaw, Matt Carpenter

 

VALUE PLAY

Jake Lamb, ARI ($3100)

Lamb is getting a major park downgrade going to Oakland, but he’s still a bit too cheap for someone who will be hitting third on the road and carries the platoon upside that Lamb does.  He has a .259 ISO against RHP over the past three years, and has posted a 43% hard hit rate since returning from the DL.  If you can’t get all the way to Moose, Lamb is a fine cost saving option.

Other options – Maikel Franco, Matt Chapman, Yolmer Sanchez

 

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trea Turner, WAS ($4200)

Turner is fully priced and is a better hitter against same-handed pitching, but Wei-Yin Chen has allowed 1.55 HR/9 to RHB over the past four years and is backed by a really bad bullpen (27th in xFIP).  Turner can wreak havoc with both his bat and his legs, and he has a 37% hard hit rate over his last 15 games.  He’s worth a look in all formats.

Other options – Jurickson Profar, Marcus Semien

 

VALUE PLAY

Tim Anderson, CHW ($3000)

Your guess is as good as mine over where Anderson will be in the lineup against a righty (fyi – he homered from the five-hole yesterday), but he consistently leads off against lefties and is too cheap for that context.  Anderson has become an event player this year (combined 19 homers and steals, well on pace for at least a 20-20 season), and Francisco Liriano has allowed a 39% hard hit rate to RHB since the beginning of last year.

Other options – Jedd Gyorko, Daniel Robertson, Scott Kingery

 

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Rhys Hoskins, PHI ($3700)

We’re going to gloss over Bryce Harper here.  He’s a great play but he’s $1400 more than the next-highest priced OF, so I don’t see the need in cash.  Hoskins is facing Jaime Garcia who has really struggled to keep the ball down this year (45.6% FB rate, 1.86 HR/9 allowed), and he’s brutalized LHP in his young career for a .404 wOBA and .293 ISO.  He’s a great play in cash, but there are values to fill out the position as well.

Other options – Bryce Harper, Nomar Mazara, Shin Soo Choo, Nick Castellanos, Lorenzo Cain, Tommy Pham

 

VALUE PLAY

Ryan Braun, MIL ($2800)

Braun is flat out mispriced on FD and is a lock for me at $2800.  Vargas has lost everything except for a fairly adequate K rate, and RHB have a .224 ISO against him over the last three years.  Braun is obviously on the decline himself, but he’s still got a .394 wOBA and .255 ISO against LHP since the beginning of 2014.  He’s a gift in cash, and a hard fade in GPPs as well.

Other options – Joey Gallo, Delino DeShields, Christian Yelich, Domingo Santana, Jorge Soler, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Brandon Nimmo, Aaron Altherr, Curtis Granderson, Jon Jay, Jacoby Jones, Mikie Mahtook

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