FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 5/25/19

Left handed pitcher Tyler Skaggs of the Angels throwing a pitch at home in Anaheim

Let’s get this Memorial Day weekend started with two slates of DFS! DraftKings’ 10-game early slate will be a central theme in chat, but this article has all you need for the six-game FD main slate. The theme there is overpriced pitching and focus on Coors, so don’t worry about spending too much for your SP (we have an adequate value to load up on bats). I’ll see our subs for BOTH slates in chat today, and don’t forget to follow me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD ($11,000)

The Pirates have a 3.4 IRT on this slate which is by far the lowest, but I will never endorse this price tag for Ryu in cash even though he’s had his best season of his career. Pittsburgh has a putrid .279 wOBA against LHP but have only struck out 20.5% of the time against them which lowers a good deal of upside. The matchup is great for the win and run prevention so I’m OK taking some GPP shots at his elevated price tag, but you can’t fit Coors bats in cash with Ryu, which is not OK with me.

Other options – Mike Soroka, Mike Minor

VALUE PLAY

Tyler Skaggs, LAA ($7400)

Skaggs is your avenue to all the big Coors bats, and this is they way I’m likely taking in cash. The 41% HHR Skaggs has allowed this season is worrisome, but a 4.00 SIERA and 24% K rate is just fine for his price tag. Almost all of Texas’ big threats come from the left side, and they have a slate-high 29.1% K rate against LHP. This one just makes sense.

Other options – Brad Peacock, Jorge Lopez, Kyle Freeland

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Daniel Murphy, COL ($3700)

Get ready to hear a lot about the Rockies in this one. Repeat after me – ANDREW CASHNER IS NOT REAL. He’s had some good outings this year, but it’s all smoke and mirrors, as Cashner has a 5.15 SIERA and an awful 15.6% K rate. That will just not fly in Coors Field, and I honestly think the Rockies’ 6.4 IRT is low. On a short slate, you want 3-4 Rockies in cash, and Murphy is too cheap for someone with a .215 ISO against RHP the last three years. He’ll be a mainstay in my cash lineups.

Other options – Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez, Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt

VALUE PLAY

Max Muncy, LAD ($3300)

You can’t use Muncy over Murphy, but the UTIL spot does give you the option to use both. Joe Musgrove is another pitcher that is pitching over his head right now, and Muncy has a .354 wOBA and .230 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. The park environment is not great at all, but the Dodgers still have an IRT of 4.6 runs and Muncy has a 33.3% HHR over his last 15 games.

Other options – Yuli Gurriel, Tyler White

Catcher values – Pedro Severino, Tony Wolters

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Jonathan Villar, BAL ($3600)

Kyle Freeland had a surprisingly terrific year last season but we’re seeing no encore this year, as he’s allowing over two homers per nine innings while posting a 5.80 FIP. Villar will get to lead off on the road in Coors which is always a top position to target (likely five PAs) and he has surprising power against LHP as well (.182 ISO since 2017).

Other options – Michael Chavis, DJ LeMahieu

VALUE PLAY

Brendan Rodgers, COL ($3200)

Villar is the cash play, but Rodgers is an elite GPP option as a “sneaky” Rockie with all the focus on the big guys. The top prospect has done nothing but strike out since his callup (42.9% K rate), but Andrew Cashner lowers a lot of that K risk. Also, Rodgers was posting an elite .289 ISO in AAA this year so the power is certainly there, and could be on display in Coors any given day.

Other options – Ozzie Albies, Nicky Lopez, Aledmys Diaz

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Nolan Arenado, COL ($4700)

You can fade off the insane ownership in GPP, but Arenado is a cash lock, even if you decide you need a more expensive pitcher than Skaggs. Arenado will be megachalk after homering twice yesterday, and he has a 55% HHR over his last five games (!!!). We’re also talking about a guy with a career 1.098 OPS at home. The sky’s the limit here.

Other options – Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers, Matt Carpenter

VALUE PLAY

Renato Nunez, BAL ($3400)

This guy wouldn’t be a cleanup hitter on any other team but the Orioles (well, maybe the Marlins), but a cleanup hitter in Coors at $3400 offers value no matter who it is. Nunez’s .227 ISO this year is over 40 points over his career rate so it’s tough to tell if it’s real or not, but you’re getting him at a good time right now as he has an HHR of 41% over his last 15 games.

Other options – Josh Donaldson, Rio Ruiz, David Fletcher

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4500)

Story also double-donged last night and both he and Arenado are easy if you use Skaggs as your SP (the route I recommend). Story and Arenado are both obviously better with the platoon edge, but they’re elite hitters against anyone in Coors, and let’s not forget Cashner is backed by a bullpen that ranks dead last in both FIP and SIERA.

Other options – Gleyber Torres, Adalberto Mondesi, Carlos Correa

VALUE PLAY

Corey Seager, LAD ($2900)

If you choose to pay up at SP you won’t get both Arenado and Story, which means Seager would be the best cheap pivot at the SS position. He has a career .810 OPS against RHP and has really found a groove lately with a 25.4% HHR over his last ten games. Joe Musgrove is due some serious regression, and we’ve already seen it begin.

Other options – Logan Forsythe, Dansby Swanson

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

David Dahl, COL ($3600)

First off, if Charlie Blackmon is in he’s the top overall play on the slate, but I have a feeling we’re going to see him sit again. Dahl is FAR too cheap on FD and should be the first hitter name you click no matter who your starting pitcher is. Dahl has a career 1.024 OPS at Coors Field which rivals Blackmon, Arenado, and Story, and Cashner has given up a career 38% FB rate and 34% HHR to LHB. Somehow he hasn’t allowed a homer to lefties this season, but I think that changes tonight.

Other options – Charlie Blackmon, Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Ronald Acuna, Joey Gallo, Trey Mancini, Aaron Hicks

VALUE PLAY

Raimel Tapia, COL ($3100)

Tapia led off in Blackmon’s absence last night which made him an elite cash play. That could be even better tonight with the platoon edge, and honestly I’d play him at this price tag even if he hits seventh. Like most Rockies, Tapia has a high K rate (29.1%), but so much of that risk goes out the window with Cashner on the bump. Tapia has surprising power, with a .240 ISO this season after logging a .280 mark in limited time last year. He’s another cash staple with a solid lineup spot. How do we choose four Rockies???

Other options – Steve Wilkerson, Joey Rickard, Nick Markakis, Alex Verdugo, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Jorge Soler, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez, Jackie Bradley, Jake Marisnick, Derek Fisher, Tony Kemp

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