Yesterday was rockin’, so let’s keep it going tonight with a ten-game slate. Pitching is an easy choice, so our focus will be on the best hitters to complement him (deGrom, that is). There are some BAD pitchers on this slate, so we’ll be looking at some key offense, and join us in FTA+ chat this evening. I’m also on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
Jacob deGrom, NYM ($10,400)
I’ll provide a “value” as well as I normally do, but deGrom is really the top value as well as the top overall play. He’s a flat out lock in cash on this slate, and has a great matchup against the Marlins who rank 28th in wRC+ with the 11th highest K rate. DeGrom’s K rate is elite (34.3%), and he’s the largest favorite (-210) with the lowest IRTA (2.9). Don’t overthink this one.
Other options – None
David Price, BOS ($7900)
Price is the best GPP option even though Tampa is pretty pesky against LHP (sixth in wRC+). He’s already faced them three times this year, and two of those outings yielded very positive results. His velocity and K rate have risen over the last two starts, and there’s a chance Wilson Ramos will sit after leaving yesterday’s game (he’s Tampa’s second best hitter against LHP). Throw in the 3.5 IRTA and the positive park shift and there’s a lot to like here.
Other options – Kenta Maeda, Chris Archer, Jon Lester, Alex Cobb, Luiz Gohara
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($4100)
Given the matchup, the Cubs IRT of 4.5 runs seems a touch low. Cleveland is sending out Adam Plutko who posted a 5.90 ERA in AAA last year with a FB rate that’s way too high. If the winds of Wrigley Field don’t agree with the pitcher (right now they’re neutral), Plutko could be in for a rough ride. Rizzo has a .384 wOBA and .247 ISO against RHP over the last three years.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Sanchez
Chris Davis, BAL ($2300)
Davis is trending downward at this point in his career (and he disappointed against James Shields last night). However, Dylan Covey is one of the best attack points in DFS (think Chris Tillman-esque), and his lack of ability to miss bats really helps to recover Davis’ downside. Over the past two years, Covey has allowed a .377 wOBA and .250 ISO to LHB, and Davis has a .265 ISO against RHP in that span. Spoiler alert – wait until you see Covey’s reverse splits when we get to Manny Machado later!
Other options – Josh Bell, Neil Walker, Wilmer Flores
Catcher values – Francisco Cervelli, Russell Martin, Tucker Barnhart, Robinson Chirinos
Yoan Moncada, CHW ($3700)
Im my opinion, there is only one player for cash games (see below), but Moncada is a great GPP from the leadoff spot. Moncada has hit much better from the left side this season, and Alex Cobb has allowed a .199 ISO to LHB over the last two years.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Asdrubal Cabrera, Scooter Gennett
Josh Harrison, PIT ($2900)
Harrison is a lock for me in cash, and his price makes it even more so. He’ll lead off for Pittsburgh who has an IRT of 4.9 runs, and Harrison has a 40% hard hit rate since returning from the DL. The Pirates are facing Homer Bailey who has allowed a .374 wOBA since the beginning of last year, and he’s lost any vestige of ability to strike batters out. Pittsburgh is one of the top stacks tonight, and Harrison is the table-setter.
Other options – Yangervis Solarte, Jonathan Schoop, Ian Kinsler
Kris Bryant, CHC ($4700)
Bryant is a luxury spend on this slate, but his upside is massive against Adam Plutko. The Cleveland righty allowed 1.59 HR/9 in AAA last season, and ZiPS has him projected for 1.83 at the major league level. Bryant is posting an incredible 42.3% hard hit rate this season, and has crushed RHP for a .255 over the last three years. He’s an elite GPP spend.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson, Eugenio Suarez
Colin Moran, PIT ($2900)
Moran doesn’t come with the best lineup spot, but sixth is usable if you want to save money at the position. He homered yesterday against Matt Harvey, and has an even better matchup today against Homer Bailey who has allowed a .374 wOBA and .196 ISO to LHB over the past two years. Moran has a very usable 26.7% hard hit rate over the last ten and is cheap exposure to one of the better offenses tonight.
Other options – Kyle Seager, Miguel Andujar, Yolmer Sanchez, Pedro Alvarez
Manny Machado, BAL ($5000)
Machado is my top overall player tonight, and I want to try and make his $5000 price tag work even if it costs me some good outfielders (we’ll see). Machado is a career reverse splits hitter who is posting MVP numbers so far this season, and he’s facing Dylan Covey who has been absolutely obliterated by same-handed hitting in his career. Since the beginning of 2016, Covey has allowed a .403 wOBA and .290 ISO to RHB, and Machado could be looking at five plate appearances in this one.
Other options – Francisco Lindor, Chris Taylor, Didi Gregorius
Jose Peraza, CIN ($2600)
If you can’t afford Machado (or simply don’t want to try), I’d suggest punting with Peraza. Chad Kuhl has been rather tough on RHB in his career, but Peraza leads off and holds speed upside (we saw it yesterday). Francisco Cervelli is historically one of the worst catcher in the wSB- category, and there’s not much downside here for such a cheap price tag on Peraza.
Other options – Marcus Semien, Daniel Robertson
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($5200)
The Yankees have by far the highest IRT on the slate at 5.8 runs, and you’re going to want some exposure even if you can’t get all the way up to Stanton (I prefer Machado if I’m picking one big spend in this range). Doug Fister has been tougher on righties this year, but he still lacks any semblance of K upside, and if you’re not striking out the Yankees you’re in deep trouble. Stanton has been bumped up to third in the order, and has a .260 ISO against same-handed pitching over the last two years.
Other options – Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, Nelson Cruz, Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco, Khris Davis, Rhys Hoskins
Brett Gardner, NYY ($3100)
Gardner doesn’t carry near the upside Stanton does, but he’s a much more accessible way to get Yankee exposure in cash play. Gardner should be back in the leadoff spot tonight (unless the Yankees finally figure out that Gleyber Torres is the rightful owner of that spot), and Fister has been far worse against LHB, allowing a .373 wOBA to them over the past four years. He also struggles to control the running game, and Gardner’s probability of scoring runs is very high in this one.
Other options – Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Teoscar Hernandez, Kevin Pillar, Austin Meadows, Scott Schebler, Jesse Winker, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto, Delino DeShields, Chad Pinder, Aaron Altherr