Even Verlander couldn’t save me yesterday as I fell just shy of the cash line on both sites (picking Turnbull over Quintana as DK’s SP2 was my downfall there). Tonight we turn our attention to the 11-game card on Wednesday night, and you’ll find a lot of the same teams highlighted today that were yesterday. I’m on twitter @jac3600, and I’ll see you in chat.
Gerrit Cole, HOU ($11,700)
Truth be told, I like Scherzer as a better per-dollar play at $600 less, and if you need that money I have no problem dropping down. The tiebreaker on FD, however, exists in the Vegas line for me as the Scherzer/deGrom tilt is currently even money whereas Cole is a massive -325 favorite over the White Sox. We’ve already seen Peacock and Verlander decimate Chicago, and Cole is even better than them with his 38.3% K rate and 16% swinging strike rate. Chicago ranks 18th in wOBA against RHP and has the fourth highest K rate, making Cole an incredibly safe option tonight. If you need the money, though, don’t hesitate to save it with one of the studs in the WAS/NYM game (Scherzer is the much bigger priority of those two).
Other options – Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom,\
Max Fried, ATL ($9000)
The three guys above present far too much opportunity cost to drop below them in cash, but I love Fried as a GPP play in San Francisco tonight. He’s been incredibly impressive this season with a 3.16 xFIP and a sub-5% BB rate, and the Giants are a horrible team against LHP (.265 wOBA, 65 wRC+, 25.1% K rate). Fried doesn’t quite have the K upside of the guys above, but the run prevention is right there with them (3.3 IRTA) and the bat upgrade could push him through in a GPP.
Other options – Rich Hill, Cole Hamels, Rick Porcello, Adam Wainwright
Gary Sanchez/Luke Voit, NYY ($4400/$4200)
The Yankees are going to be megachalk tonight and rightfully so. They have scored 10+ runs in three straight contests and tonight are facing arguably their worst opponent thus far in Dan Straily. The Orioles righty has pitched his way to a 7.24 xFIP while allowing a 51% FB rate and 46% HHR (which has already led to him allowing ten homers so far this year in seven starts). Voit has been amazing this season with a .372 wOBA and .231 ISO while being the one constant (with Torres) that has been fully healthy for this team. Sanchez has an unreal .390 ISO this season and a 45% HHR the last five games. He’s more than worth it as your “one big bat” alongside the top SP, even being a catcher.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Rhys Hoskins, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, Willson Contreras
Justin Smoak, TOR ($3300)
There are much worse pitchers than Rick Porcello on this slate, but that doesn’t mean Smoak isn’t a solid value where cheaper hitters are going to be necessary. Smoak has a 35.7% HHR over his last 15 games and Porcello has only a 19% K rate with a 9% BB rate this year (both career worsts). Smoak offers value on a slate where you need it.
Other options – Max Muncy, Yuli Gurriel, Tyler White, Daniel Murphy
Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Robinson Chirinos, Jorge Alfaro
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
DJ LeMahieu, NYY ($3500)
DJ’s lack of power makes his price jump of $300 from yesterday annoying, but he’s SUCH a good cash floor play with his career 7.7% K-BB ratio, and he’s coming into this game with 13 multi-hit games over his past 19 games. He’ll lead off for the top offense, and his price is affordable in all formats. He makes so much sense on this slate no matter who your SP is.
Other options – Whit Merrifield, Jonathan Schoop, Jonathan Villar, Kolten Wong, Starlin Castro
Kris Bryant, CHC ($4300)
If you’re not looking at Yankees as the top team’s player tonight, the Cubs are the next-in-line, and for the most part they’re every bit as good with their IRT of 5.9 runs. The wind currently seems to be blowing out and Cole Irvin has not been good as a major leaguer with a 5.15 SIERA, 13.5% K rate, and 31% GB rate. Bryant has a .399 wOBA and .256 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year, and his HHR is over 35% over his last ten games.
Other options – Alex Bregman, Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter
David Bote, CHC ($2400)
Assuming he’s in a top-six lineup spot, Bote is a poor man’s Bryant that you can use to get cheap access to the same lineup. Bote does not have near the numbers of Bryant, but a .170 ISO against LHP since last year is adequate for his $2400 price tag.
Other options – Justin Turner, Vlad Guerrero, Brian Anderson
Javier Baez, CHC ($4000)
The struggle between Baez and Gleyber Torres is real tonight, as FD has done a really good job pricing them evenly. Ultimately I lean Baez who has a BIT more power upside and a BIT more speed upside (emphasis on “bit”). Baez has absolutely brutalized left-handed pitching this season for a 59% HHR, and I expect to see him back in the starting lineup this evening after pinch hitting yesterday.
Other options – Gleyber Torres, Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco, Paul DeJong, Trevor Story
Corey Seager, LAD ($2900)
There is a ton of opportunity cost at SS tonight, but I guess Seager is viable if you’re in a pinch. The Dodgers are getting a park downgrade in Tampa and Yonny Chirinos is good, but Seager does have a .191 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. It’s not an awful play, but not a great one either.
Other options – Ronny Rodriguez, Dansby Swanson, Freddy Galvis
Aaron Hicks, NYY ($3700)
What a weird name to have on the top play list, especially since we have Trout, all the Red Sox guys, and maybe Springer back on this slate. It really shows how incredibly good the context is for the Yankees, and Hicks has a .351 wOBA and .200 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. His lineup spot is anywhere from second to fourth, and all of those spots are elite. He’s a great option when you compare his price tag to the other top outfielders on this slate.
Other options – Mike Trout, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Charlie Blackmon, Ronald Acuna, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler
Josh Reddick, HOU ($3200)
We haven’t really touched on the Astros yet in this article with the Yanks and Cubs garnering so much attention, but the Astros are right behind in IRT with a 5.5 and face another gas can in Ivan Nova. He’s been battered this season to a 5.56 FIP, and the Astros as a team only have a 17.6% K rate. Nova has allowed a .222 ISO to LHB since the beginning of last year, which makes Reddick hard to pass up if he leads off again (if Springer is out).
Other options – Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Albert Almora, Joc Pederson, David Dahl, Raimel Tapia, Nick Castellanos, Niko Goodrum, Rosell HerreraFantasy Baseball