My #BirthdayNarrative came through yesterday on both sites, marking what I think is the fifth straight year at least doubling my profit on my B-day. Today I’m hoping for some #DayAfter narrative, especially with the disappointment over the Game of Thrones finale last night. We have eight games to tackle on the main slate, and warm weather continues to be a thing. I’ll see you all in FTA chat tonight, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Patrick Corbin, WAS ($10,800)
I have a feeling Corbin is going to be chalky based on his recent performance against the Mets (11 Ks) and the fact that the Mets’ offense is ice cold right now (two runs the whole weekend against the MARLINS??). The matchup is prime, as the Mets have the second highest K rate against LHP (29.6% despite also ranking ninth in wRC+ against them. I’m not calling Corbin a lock since I actually think Chris Paddack is right there with him (and moreso on DK) and the fact that there are cheaper options as well, but if you pay up for Corbin you get no argument from me even though there’s no bargain at all to his price tag.
Other options – Chris Paddack, Luke Weaver
Brad Peacock, HOU ($7800)
Peacock is simply underpriced on FD, and you can easily roll him out in cash if you want to get multiple top-tier hitters in there. Despite the fact that Yoan Moncada has cut his K rate down by almost 8% this season, the White Sox STILL carry the fourth highest K rate against RHP and they only have an IRT of 3.4 runs against Peacock. The Houston righty has an elite 30.6% K rate this season, and he’s been getting a much longer leash with his innings.
Other options – Mike Minor, Yu Darvish, J.A. Happ
Edwin Encarnacion, SEA ($3900)
It’s true that attacking Mike Minor is scary given the way he’s pitched this year, but Seattle still has an IRT of five runs as they’re getting an immense park boost. It’s going to be in the upper 80s in Texas with humidity and winds blowing out, and Edwin has a .354 wOBA and .230 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. He’s playable in all formats.
Other options – Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Anthony Rizzo, CJ Cron
Yuli Gurriel/Tyler White, HOU ($2700/$2400)
There’s a lot more opportunity cost than usual at 1B today, so you may want to pay up a bit. If you find that difficult, the Houston duo comes in as a viable alternative at sub 3k prices. They don’t get the best lineup spots, but they’re facing Ryan Burr and (presumably) the White Sox bullpen which has led to an IRT of 5.4 runs. It’s unclear how long Burr will pitch in this one, but he has a career 5.89 FIP and 2.05 HR/9 allowed at the MLB level.
Other options – Ronald Guzman, Yonder Alonso
Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Robinson Chirinos, Tom Murphy
The 2B position is a desolate wasteland at the top, and until Jose Altuve comes back there’s no one worth paying up for.
Rougned Odor, TEX ($2900)
Texas is the best stack of the night as they come in with the highest IRT on the slate at six runs (I already spoke of the amazing hitting environment in Arlington tonight). The Rangers can be annoying given their high K tendencies, but Mike Leake only has an 8.4% swinging strike rate this year, which is accompanied by a 4.43 SIERA. Odor can be a bit boom-or-bust, but I think we get closer to “boom” tonight with his 30.8% HHR the last 15 games, accompanied by six homers.
Other options – DJ LeMahieu, Jonathan Schoop, Jonathan Villar, Brian Dozier
Alex Bregman, HOU ($4300)
If you go cheap at SP with Peacock you can afford multiple stud hitters, which means Bregman should be one of them. I already spoke of Ryan Burr’s shortcomings, and he’s backed by a White Sox bullpen that ranks in the bottom ten in both FIP and K%. Bregman has a .380 wOBA and .240 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and he has a 34.1% HHR the last 15 games.
Other options – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rendon, Yoan Moncada, Josh Donaldson
Asdrubal Cabrera, TEX ($2900)
If you want to save money, going the “Texas” route seems to be the smart move. We’ve already harped on the hitting environment, and even the declining Asdrubal has been able to post a .341 wOBA and .218 ISO against RHP since 2018. If he’s in the top five he’s an awesome value play.
Other options – Tommy LaStella, Ryon Healy, Todd Frazier
Gleyber Torres, NYY ($3500)
We haven’t touched on the Yankees yet, and I think the $500 discount on Torres from Carlos Correa is more than enough to vault Gleyber to top-play status. He’s been a machine lately, hitting safely in 20 of his last 21 games while posting a 28.8% HHR over that span. Andrew Cashner has pitched much better this year than in previous ones, but his 5.16 SIERA says it’s not going to last, and the Baltimore bullpen ranks dead last in FIP. It’s going to be 84 degrees in Baltimore, which is a hitters paradise anyway, and the Yankees have an IRT of 5.5 runs.
Other options – Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Jorge Polanco, Javier Baez
Tim Beckham, SEA ($2500)
As long as Beckham is in the top six of the batting order, he can be rostered at this cheap price tag even given the opportunity cost at the SS position. Beckham has a .178 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year, and I’m really not solid on this resurgence from Minor despite his high K rates (2.61 ERA/4.24 xFIP).
Other options – Dansby Swanson, Andrelton Simmons
Joey Gallo, TEX ($4200)
Gallo is not only the top OF position, but is also my top overall hitter tonight and will be core for me on FD (even if I go to Paddack or Corbin at SP). Gallo’s career 37% K rate is terrifying for cash games, but he’s also got the upside to lead the entire league in homers and you want to pick your spots when you think those homers are coming. It makes as much sense as any to attack that tonight, as Mike Leake has a putrid 16.2% K rate for his entire career and will be pitching in an environment that rivals Coors Field tonight. Gallo is the first name I’m entering tonight.
Other options – Shin Coo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Mike Trout, George Springer, Michael Brantley, Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Ronald Acuna
Willie Calhoun, TEX ($3000)
It was a lot more fun when Calhoun was totally mispriced at $2100, but 3k is still too cheap given the context. Calhoun does not have the immense power upside of some of his teammates, but there’s also nothing wrong with his .195 ISO against RHP. He also comes in with a 40% HHR since his callup, and is capable of steals bases as well. He’s an easy cash play on FD>
Other options – Aaron Hicks, Clint Frazier, Brett Gardner, Josh Reddick, Kyle Schwarber, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Eaton, Gerardo Parra, Jay Bruce, Eloy JimenezFantasy Baseball