FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 5/15/19


Vlad Junior came through in fine fashion yesterday, hitting not one but his first TWO major league homers for a very cheap price tag. I hope everyone stuck with him at least one more day, because I have a feeling that price tag is going to slowly creep back up. Today we have eight games on the main slate, and make sure you also check out Derek’s Round the Bases article which covers all things DraftKings. I’m also on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Patrick Corbin, WAS ($9400)

I’ll be using Justin Verlander on DK but Corbin’s $2600 discount is massive on FD and truth be told, the K upside is not all that different in this one. The Mets are pesky as they rank inside the top ten for wOBA against LHP, but there are plenty of strikeouts to be found in that lineup as well – they have a 28.2% K rate against lefties which is the highest on the slate. Corbin has not missed a beat coming to Washington, as he’s posted a 30.2% K rate which is accompanied by an elite 15% swinging strike rate. He’s allowed a 40.7% HHR which is concerning, but Corbin is way too cheap for his skillset and you won’t need to sacrifice near the bats you would with Verlander.

Other options – Justin Verlander, Mike Soroka

VALUE PLAY

Kenta Maeda, LAD ($8300)

Maeda is never the safest option for cash due to his manager giving him the quick hook, but his price is down too low to not consider. Maeda has gone six innings in his last two games which is encouraging, and the Padres have a .298 wOBA and 26.7% K rate against RHP. Maeda has locked in a 14.1% swinging strike rate this season, and the Padres feature an almost all right-handed lineup.

Other options – German Marquez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jake Arrieta, Jose Urena, Jalen Beeks

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Rhys Hoskins, PHI ($4400)

Gio Gonzalez is a career neutral splits pitcher, but Hoskins beats on lefties no matter who’s on the mound. He’s got a .373 wOBA and .260 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year and he’s got a .299 ISO this season. Hoskins also has a 41.5% HHR over the last 15 games, and the only reason Philly is sporting a 4.5 IRT is the strength of the Brewers’ bullpen. Hoskins is phenomenal GPP play, but you’re going Houston in cash.

Other options – Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Mitch Moreland

VALUE PLAY

Yuli Gurriel/Tyler White, HOU ($3000/$2300)

Houston was the chalk offense last night, and you need to prioritize them again this evening. They have an incredible IRT of 6.5 runs and are facing yet another lefty that is not MLB-ready (see Carpenter, Ryan last night). Gregory Soto has only pitched 13.1 IP above High-A this year and he got blitzed by the Twins for 7 ER in his MLB debut. He does not profile well yet, and ZiPS is projecting him to walk over SEVEN batters at the MLB level this year. Houston ranks first in ISO against LHP this season and Detroit’s bullpen is 22nd in FIP. Don’t cheap out on Houston hitters tonight.

Other options – Ji-Man Choi, Ronald Guzman, Mark Reynolds

Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Robinson Chirinos, Yasmani Grandal

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Whit Merrifield, KC ($4000)

This is a GPP-only play since Mike Minor has been successful this year, but Merrifield is a great event player for tournaments with power and speed upside. He has an adequate .354 wOBA against LHP but an elite .043 SB/PA, and Texas has allowed the sixth most SBs in the majors.

Other options – Ozzie Albies, Brandon Lowe

VALUE PLAY

Aledmys Diaz, HOU ($3100)

Diaz is actually better in the reverse platoon split, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be part of your Astros onslaught. Over his last four games as a Houston regular, Diaz has three multi-hit games, three homers, and ten RBIs to go along with a 43% HHR and he’s been hitting sixth.

Other options – Kike Hernandez, Rougned Odor, Brian Dozier

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Alex Bregman, HOU ($4400)

Lock.

Lock.

Lock.

Even if you decide you need Verlander as your cash SP, you must make room for Bregman. He has a 40% HHR over the last 15 games and has a .403 wOBA and .253 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. He also steals bags, and Gregory Soto is overmatched against such a hitter. Even if this turns into a bullpen game, that’s fine as Detroit’s bullpen has an awful 5.51 SIERA. Don’t make a cash lineup with Bregman, and I’m going overweight in GPP as well.

Other options – Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, Mike Moustakas

VALUE PLAY

Asdrubal Cabrera, TEX ($3000)

We haven’t really touched on the Rangers yet, but they have an IRT of five runs and are facing an extreme fly ball pitcher in Jorge Lopez. If not for the Astros, the Rangers would be my favorite stack of the night as Lopez has allowed a .432 wOBA to LHB this year while posting a 6.89 FIP. Cabrera hits down in the order, but he’s got a .222 ISO against RHP since 2017.

Other options – Josh Donaldson, Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Matt Carpenter

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Carlos Correa, HOU ($3900)

A big issue I have with using Justin Verlander is the fact that you can’t have both Bregman and Correa, which is just not OK with me. Like the rest of the Astros hitters, Correa is belting the ball right now with a 42.5% HHR over the last 15 games. He homered again yesterday and there’s no reason his smoking bat can’t keep going another night. There’s also no reason he should be under 4k.

Other options – Trevor Story, Adalberto Mondesi, Jean Segura

VALUE PLAY

Nicky Lopez, KC ($2200)

Lopez hit second in his MLB debut yesterday and if he does so again he’s an adequate value even with a far tougher matchup. Lopez offers no power, but he has blazing speed and the Rangers have allowed far more SBs than the league average. I suggest paying up in cash for Correa.

Other options – Dansby Swanson, Corey Seager, Greg Garcia

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

George Springer, HOU ($4600)

I’d love to be cute and write about someone (like Joey Gallo, who I’m also enamored with tonight). I just can’t, though. Springer is also red hot right now with 14 hits, five homers, and a 52% HHR over his last six games. His price tag on DK is $5800, and there’s really no reason why FD shouldn’t at least have him over 5k right now. If you can fit him, do it, but Bregman and Correa take higher priority due to positional scarcity.

Other options – Cody Bellinger, Joey Gallo, Michael Brantley, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto

VALUE PLAY

Nomar Mazara, TEX ($2800)

You can throw Choo in this category as well, but Mazara is a gift at $2800. I’ve already mentioned Jorge Lopez’s immense struggled with left-handed power, and Mazara has a .355 wOBA and .221 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. If you save money at SP with Maeda, you can really build a good core of Astros and Rangers hitters, which is likely the route I’m taking.

Other options – Shin Soo Choo, Victor Robles, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Jorge Soler, Niko Goodrum, Christin Stewart, Wil Myers, Jake Marisnick

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