FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 5/14/19

Chris Sale - Boston Red Sox starting pitcher

Who needs pitching? I hit in cash on both sites despite Nola, Ray, and Bieber all posting subpar to downright awful performances. Tonight we have a much bigger slate with 12 games on it, and some really fun pitching options for GPP (Sale is your cash pitcher – don’t even look elsewhere). I will unfortunately not be in FTA chat tonight, but cores will be updated as much as possible, and find me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Chris Sale, BOS ($11,400)

Sale is obviously back, as he’s posted a 2.21 FIP and 0.81 WHIP while striking out a ridiculous 42 batters in 26 innings over his last four starts. Sale is by far the biggest favorite on the slate at -225 and his IRTA is only 3.2 runs. On the road, the Rockies are a fraction of what they are at home, ranking 27th in road wOBA since the beginning of last year (which says something, considering the personnel in their lineup). Colorado also ranks 20th in K rate this season, and it’s going to be cold in Boston. There are plenty of fun GPP options at SP, but Sale needs to be the first name you input into your cash lineups.

Other options – Caleb Smith, Charlie Morton, Clayton Kershaw, Chris Paddack, Noah Syndergaard

VALUE PLAY

Mike Foltynewicz, ATL ($6900)

Most lineups tonight are going to have someone from the list above, even in GPPs. It makes sense in large field tournaments to try and differentiate a bit by stacking heavy offenses with a cheap pitcher, and Foltynewicz looks like the best option for that tonight. Folty has been slow to get going post-injury, but he still has a sub-4 SIERA since the beginning of last year and his 55% strand rate is way below average. His diminished velocity and lowered K rate is concerning, but you’re just taking a GPP shot here. This is a guy who is only a year removed from a 3.37 FIP and 27.1% K rate, so the upside is certainly there.

Other options – Jerad Eichkoff, Jack Flaherty, Danny Duffy, Kyle Freeland

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Paul Goldschmidt, STL ($4000)

This kind of goes against everything I just wrote, but I didn’t say Foltynewicz wasn’t attackable in GPPs as well. He’s got a 6.89 FIP and 13.2% K rate to start the year, so if you think something’s really wrong a STL stack wouldn’t be the worst thing. Goldy has had nice reverse-split numbers since the beginning of last year, posting a .370 wOBA and .227 ISO against RHP, and he’s the headline play for a STL offense with an IRT of 4.7 runs.

Other options – Rhys Hoskins, Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, Edwin Encarnacion

VALUE PLAY

Yuli Gurriel/Tyler White, HOU ($2900/$2300)

Houston is your top offense tonight, and it will be hard to fit in the expensive ones alongside Sale. This is where Gurriel and White come in, as they give you cheap access to an IRT of 6.2 runs. Ryan Carpenter is starting for the Tigers and he owns a career FIP of 7.54 and a 9.1% K rate this season. The Astros are ranked first in ISO against LHP, and you want as many as you can possibly fit with Sale. Both Gurriel and White have over a 30% HHR the last 15 games, and FD’s UTIL spot means you can do both.

Other options – Matt Olson, CJ Cron, Ryan O’Hearn, Miguel Cabrera, Steve Pearce

Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Robinson Chirinos, Yadier Molina, Wilson Ramos

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Whit Merrifield, KC ($4000)

The Royals have an IRT a full run lower than the Astros at 5.1 runs, but they still have the second highest total of the night. This is due to the fact that Shelby Miller has a 5.56 SIERA while allowing over a 50% HHR this year (which is bonkers). Merrifield offers power and speed upside (a little more from the speed aspect), and it’s going to be 80 degrees in KC tonight.

Other options – Michael Chavis, Ozzie Albies

VALUE PLAY

Robinson Cano, SEA ($3000)

Cano has gotten off to a slow start this year as his age continues to go the wrong way, but we’re talking about a great hitter, especially in the platoon split where he has a career .207 ISO against RHP. Jeremy Hellickson has a 5.62 FIP this season and has allowed 2.03 HR/9. He has always relied on flyballs to get outs, and that’s no different this year as his 39.8% FB rate is right in line with his career rates.

Other options – Mike Moustakas, Jurickson Profar, Aledmys Diaz

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Alex Bregman, HOU ($4300)

You’ll have to punt more than one spot, but if you play it right you can get one big hitter in alongside Sale. If that’s the route you take, make sure that hitter is Bregman. Over the last ten games, Bregman has five homers and a 47.3% HHR (40.9% L15), and he sports a baseline .402 wOBA and .255 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year. He also steals bases, and the Tigers bullpen also ranks 21st in FIP. Get him in at all costs (except Sale).

Other options – Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Eduardo Escobar, Matt Carpenter

VALUE PLAY

Vladimir Guerrero Jr, TOR ($2700)

The last time Tyler Beede started, I told everyone to stack the Reds against him and got laughed at. I won that battle, and I’ll do it again tonight. Beede DOES have some K upside (has struck out over a batter per inning at all levels since 2017). However, he has a career 18.8% BB rate (wow) and has a 10.42 FIP this year while allowing over four homers per nine. Vlad is still searching for his first homer, but he’s reached base five of his last eight times. The homer is coming, and I say it’s tonight.

Other options – Tommy La Stella, Jeimer Candelario, Todd Frazier

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Carlos Correa, HOU ($4000)

Correa is in direct competition with Alex Bregman for the top overall hitter on the slate. With Altuve on the DL, Correa has moved up to cleanup and he’s been red hot lately with a 39.5% HHR over the last 15 games. He has a .372 wOBA and .209 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year, and headlines a pretty thin position.

Other options – Trevor Story, Adalberto Mondesi, Jorge Polanco, Elvis Andrus

VALUE PLAY

Marcus Semien, OAK ($3400)

It’s hard scrambling for SS value right now, and I’m hoping something opens up where we can just punt (JP Crawford or someone?), but Semien is adequate right now. He doesn’t have the platoon edge, but Mike Leake has allowed a .202 ISO to same-handed hitters since 2017 and only has a 7% swinging strike rate this year.

Other options – Corey Seager, Andrelton Simmons, Tim Beckham

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

George Springer, HOU ($4700)

Springer is bonkers right now, and he’s priced even with Mike Trout as a result. Over the past 13 games, Springer has seven homers and 16 RBIs with a 1.396 OPS and a 44.5% HHR. Tonight he gets a pitcher who should not be a major leaguer. Good luck, Ryan Carpenter.

Other options – Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Michael Brantley, Khris Davis, Michael Conforto, Nelson Cruz, Joey Gallo, Alex Gordon

VALUE PLAY

Shohei Ohtani, LAA ($3300)

Ohtani’s boxscore is not showing the underlying stats (other than the fact that he homered yesterday). Ohtani has posted a 35.3% HHR since returning from injury, and has a baseline .265 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. Kyle Gibson has a 50% GB rate which is usually a tough attack point, but it’s mitigated by a putrid 15.6% K rate. Ohtani’s price tag has no reason to be dropping like this.

Other options – Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Max Kepler, Jorge Soler, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Victor Robles, Stephen Piscotty, Chad Pinder, Jake Marisnik, Joc Pederson

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