We’re officially back on a winning streak! Make sure you do something nice for all the moms in your lives today, but FTA+ is here for you if you have some time along the way. We have a ten-game main slate on FanDuel this afternoon with some star pitching and hefty Vegas lines, so there are a number of ways we can go. Give our premium package a one-month free trial, and get access to our state-of-the-art projections system and live chat all day. I’m also on twitter @jac3600. Good luck, and Happy Mother’s Day!
Luis Severino, NYY ($10,400)
This is a tough decision with Kluber on the slate (plus deGrom, Paxton, and some solid mid-tier guys), but Severino is simply underpriced for how good he’s been this year, and he might be my avenue for fitting in the two big bats I want today (Altuve and Stanton). Sevy is the largest favorite on a slate with some huge Vegas lines (-300) and he has a 3.1 IRTA. Most importantly, he’s logging heavy innings and has a 2.77 xFIP an a 31.2% K rate. Oakland ranks fifth in wRC+ against RHP but also has the sixth highest K rate against them.
Other options – Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom, James Paxton
Kyle Hendricks, CHC ($8200)
Hendricks doesn’t have near the K upside that his higher-priced counterparts do, but it’s quite possible he has the easiest run prevention task of anyone on the slate. He’ll face the White Sox who will lose the DH in Wrigley Field, and the wind is blowing in which has caused the White Sox to come in with a 2.9 IRTA (lowest on the slate). Hendricks is also a -275 favorite (third highest on the slate) and has gone 7+ innings in three straight starts.
Other options – Dallas Keuchel, Sean Newcomb, Blake Snell, Dylan Bundy
Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4500)
As I said, Altuve and Stanton are my “big bat” priorities on this slate, but if you were to tell me Freeman was better than both of them I’d have no argument for you. He has eight hits and three homers in his last three games and has a 31% hard hit rate over the last ten. He’ll face off against Jose Urena who has allowed a 44% FB rate and a .212 ISO to LHB over the last three years while being incapable of missing bats. The Marlins bullpen isn’t great either.
Other options – Anthony Rizzo, Hanley Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Gary Sanchez
Evan Gattis, HOU ($2000)
I played the other Houston value catcher (McCann) yesterday en route to success, and Gattis is an absolute gift at minimum price even if he hits seventh or eighth (hopefully it’s higher). The Astros are the top offense on the slate with an IRT of 5.6 runs and are facing Matt Moore who has a 5.95 xFIP and only a 13.5% K rate. The Astros ranked first in wRC+ against RHP last season and are third so far this year, and Gattis has a .191 ISO against LHP over the last three years.
Other options – Yuli Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez, Brad Miller, Neil Walker
Catcher values – Willson Contreras, Mike Zunino, Russell Martin
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4200)
Altuve is my top overall hitter, and will be a cash priority even if it costs me Stanton too (I hope to get both). He gets the same matchup mentioned in Gattis’ blurb and is the far superior hitter. Altuve has a .400 wOBA and .193 ISO against LHP over the last three years and brings speed to the table as well. He’s hitless over his last two games, but he has a 27% hard hit rate over the last ten contests. I expect big things today.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Gleyber Torres
Leury Garcia, CHW ($2400)
Part of the reason Altuve is such a priority for me is that the rest of the position is garbage behind him. If you REALLY have to punt, Garcia will lead off on the road and he has speed upside. The matchup is horrible against Kyle Hendricks, but there are worse contexts, and Garcia at least doesn’t strike out much.
Other options – Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Nunez, Jason Kipnis, Sean Rodriguez
Josh Donaldson, TOR ($4100)
Donaldson is one of the top platoon plays in the game with a .413 wOBA and .254 ISO against LHP over the past four seasons, and he gets to face off against Drew Pomeranz who hasn’t quite figured it out since returning from the DL (plus he had a nail issue last start). He’s allowed a 38% hard hit rate to RHB and 1.31 HR/9 since the beginning of last season, and Donaldson is a touch underpriced.
Other options – Kris Bryant, Jose Ramirez
Alex Bregman, HOU ($3300)
Bregman is a great way to get access to the Astros offense at a cheap cost, especially if he hits second again (which he did yesterday with Springer sitting). Even if Bregman goes back to fifth in the order, he’s a great value against Matt Moore and the Rangers bullpen. Bregman has event upside (combined 36 homers and steals last year) and has a .200 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Yangervis Solarte, Rafael Devers, Miguel Andujar, Danny Valencia
Carlos Correa, HOU ($4100)
Let the Astros barrage continue, as Correa is the clear-cut top play at this position as well. The problem, of course, is that you can’t fit them all in cash, but if you were to prioritize Altuve/Correa as your top two instead of Altuve/Stanton (like I have), I wouldn’t complain. Correa’s K rate is up this year, but he’s still rocking a 141 wRC+ and a .216 ISO against LHP.
Other options – Manny Machado, Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts, Didi Gregorius
Jordy Mercer/Max Moroff, PIT ($2400/$2300)
If one of these guys were to lead off, they’d easily be my cash game SS in the attempt to get my favorite top guys in. The Pirates have been swinging hot sticks lately and are facing off against Derek Holland who has allowed 1.56 HR/9 to RHB over the past three years. Mercer would be the preferred choice with his .213 ISO against LHP the last three years, but both are more than adequate punts with a decent lineup spot.
Other options – Addison Russell, Brandon Crawford, Scott Kingery
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4800)
I’ve harped on the Astros this entire article, but we can’t forget the Yanks. They have an IRT of 5.4 runs which comes in just behind the Astros as the top offense, and Stanton against a lefty speaks for itself. Brett Anderson generally does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, but Stanton’s career .430 wOBA and .356 ISO against LHP is otherworldly. He’s got a 30% hard hit rate over his last ten games too.
Other options – George Springer, Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Schwarber, Teoscar Hernandez
Aaron Hicks, NYY ($2900)
This is pure speculation on my part at this stage of the morning, but I think Brett Gardner will sit against the left-handed Anderson, thrusting Aaron Hicks into the leadoff spot. If that is indeed the case, he’s an awesome cash play at sub-3k prices. Hicks has ability in both the power and speed department, and would be the table-setter for a high-octane offense.
Other options – Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Denard Span, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Matt Joyce, Carlos Gomez, Brandon Guyer, Jake Marisnick, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Jacoby Jones