Last night was a great night thanks to some key Indians hitting and Max Scherzer being Max Scherzer. Coors Field also finally did what we expected from it with a combined 21 runs scored and we’ll be going back there for sure tonight. There are some weather issues to keep an eye (most notably in NY if you want to play Syndergaard), but we’ll have you covered in FTA+ chat. You can also follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
Charlie Morton, HOU ($9300)
Given his skill set, Syndergaard seems too cheap at 10k, but I’m fine going even cheaper with Morton who seems to come with much less risk (albeit a little less K upside as well). Morton is much more likely to work deeper into the game than Syndergaard and is also a much better pick in the eyes of Las Vegas (-255 favorite, 3.3 IRTA). The prospect of a win and QS being more heavily weighted plays more to Morton than to Syndergaard, and Texas ranks 27th in wRC+ against RHP.
Other options – Noah Syndergaard
Ross Stripling, LAD ($5800)
Stripling is a fun GPP play if you want a full stack of Coors Field and its 12 O/U. He only pitched four innings last outing but he could conceivably get up to five or six if he’s economical, and he’s facing off against the Reds who are getting a park downgrade and rank 25th in wRC+ against RHP. Stripling has struck out over a batter per inning thus far this year so there’s upside even in limited time.
Other options – Michael Wacha, Tyson Ross, Kyle Gibson, Mike Soroka
Brandon Belt, SF ($3600)
There’s nothing really to love about the park factor for Belt, but he’s got a .217 ISO against RHP since the beginning of 2016. Pirates pitcher Chad Kuhl is a wide-splits pitcher who has allowed a .222 ISO to LHB over that span. I prefer Bellinger (see below), but Belt is in play in all formats at his price tag.
Other options – Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto
Cody Bellinger, LAD ($3300)
The Dodgers for some reason couldn’t hit Matt Harvey over four innings yesterday, but now they face an even worse pitcher in Homer Bailey, who has allowed a .371 wOBA and .192 ISO to LHB since the beginning of 2016. Bellinger hit fifth yesterday which isn’t ideal, but his immense platoon power makes him by far the top value at a too-cheap price tag.
Other options – Ian Desmond, Josh Bell, Eric Hosmer, Adrian Gonzalez
Catcher values – Yasmani Grandal, Brian McCann, Devin Mesoraco
D.J. LeMahieu, COL ($3800)
I’ll take D.J. over Altuve tonight with the $400 discount. The Rockies righties are the top group to target this evening against Chase Anderson who has allowed a .357 wOBA and .224 ISO to same-handed pitching over the past two seasons. The Rockies once again come in with the highest IRT at 5.9 runs, and LeMahieu will be the leadoff hitter.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, Asdrubal Cabrera
Chase Utley, LAD ($2500)
We have to pay close attention to Utley’s lineup spot as it could literally be anywhere. That said, he hit first last night, and if he’s there again he’s easily the top value against Homer Bailey and company. The second base position is rather thin this evening, so punting with Utley is probably a smart move in cash games even if he hits sixth or seventh.
Other options – Ian Kinsler, Jose Pirela
Nolan Arenado, COL ($5500)
Arenado is fully priced at $5500, but he’s still the top play on the slate by a long shot, and is easy to fit in since pitching isn’t that expensive. Arenado has a .380 wOBA and .254 ISO against same-handed pitching over his last four years, and gets the reverse-splits of Chase Anderson. I wouldn’t overthink this one in cash.
Other options – Travis Shaw
Jose Bautista, ATL ($2700)
If you’re building a different way (or need a cheap GPP option), I present Jose Bautista. He’s certainly at the tail end of his career, but he still has some platoon pop and is facing Jarlin Garcia who is going to get hit hard by the regression train soon (it already started last game). Garcia is barely striking out six batters per nine innings and his 2.68 ERA is backed by a 4.79 xFIP.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Alex Bregman
Trevor Story, COL ($4400)
This is really the same story (ha). You want to have exposure to the Rockies right side, and he offers as much power upside as anyone in the league. Story has a .259 ISO thus far this year and is getting premier lineup spots (fourth or fifth). Ultimately he’s third for me of the big Rockies trio, but he’s certainly viable in all formats for the top offense on the board.
Other options – Carlos Correa, Chris Taylor
Brandon Crawford, SF ($2900)
I really wish Crawford was a bit cheaper since he doesn’t hit higher than sixth, but he’s still an adequate value at a thin position. Crawford offers platoon power (.183 ISO against RHP the last three years) and he gets to face Chad Kuhl who has some of the widest platoon splits on the slate. There’s always the chance of a better lineup spot if the Giants shake things up.
Other options – Orlando Arcia, Amed Rosario
Ryan Braun, MIL ($3500)
Obviously from a raw projection, Blackmon and Trout are the cream of the crop here, but I want to point out Braun. He’s super underpriced on FD and is a top priority for me on this slate. Kyle Freeland has allowed a .207 ISO to RHB since the beginning of 2016, and Braun has posted a .385 wOBA and .256 ISO against LHP in that time frame. The Brewers have an IRT of 5.2 runs in Coors Field tonight, and Braun has the potential to be the highest scorer at the position. Period.
Other options – Charlie Blackmon, Mike Trout, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna, George Springer, Yoenis Cespedes, Gregory Polanco
Joc Pederson, LAD ($2500)
Joc busted last night with an 0-4 day, but I’m going right back to the well tonight. He has hit second for the last two games and his K downside will be heavily countered by Homer Bailey who only has a paltry 13% K rate this season. Joc has a .242 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year, and the Reds bullpen is very right-handed as well.
Other options – Carlos Gonzalez, David Dahl, Domingo Santana, Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Adam Frazier, Gregor Blanco, Andrew McCutchen, Yasiel Puig, Max Kepler