We got back on track in a big way with yesterday’s seven-game slate, and it’s followed up with a nine-game card today. Pitching is VERY shaky on this one and we have a new Coors slate, so it will be a very fine balance between getting enough of that game (plus the safety in pitching). We also have Chris Tillman on the slate, so there should be a ton of offense tonight. I’ll be back in chat helping our FTA+ subs cash out, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.
Zack Greinke, ARI ($9300)
Greinke is the top rated pitcher simply from a skill standpoint (by far), but he’s got a tough matchup against the Nationals who should get Bryce Harper and Matt Adams back in the lineup. However, Greinke’s price tag is depressed for his skills and he has a 27% K rate since the beginning of last season. He’s allowed a 41.7% hard hit rate which is majorly concerning but he’s often allowed to work deep into games which helps the prospect of a QS. I’d like to go a little cheaper in cash if possible.
Other options – J.A. Happ
Miles Mikolas, STL ($8500)
I was torn between Mikolas and Walker Buehler as to who is the best value, but in the end I’m willing to sacrifice K upside for expected innings (DraftKings is a different story). Buehler has yet to be really extended as a major leagues, and Mikolas has pitched seven innings in four straight starts (achieving a quality start in all four). Again, there’s not much K upside here (19.3% K rate), but the Padres rank 29th in wRC+ against RHP with an above average K rate. They’re also missing Wil Myers which further diminishes the lineup.
Other options – Walker Buehler, Jose Berrios, Ian Kennedy, Caleb Smith, Tyler Mahle
Cody Bellinger, LAD ($3700)
I’m honed in on Duda for my cash lineup tonight, but Bellinger certainly has appeal. Tyler Mahle has gotten blitzed by LHB in his career to the tune of a .389 wOBA and .269 ISO, and the Reds bullpen is not only below-average but also very right-handed. Bellinger is off to a slow-ish start after his monster rookie season, but he still offers massive pop against RHP.
Other options – Gary Sanchez, Paul Goldschmidt, Matt Adams, Hanley Ramirez
Lucas Duda, KC ($2500)
As enticing as the Coors bats are tonight, I’m just as in love with the Royals. They are facing off against Chris Tillman who is simply a miracle. Tillman has a 9.24 ERA this year while walking more batters than he’s struck out, and he’s allowed 1.78 HR/9. The wind is blowing out to RF and the Royals are getting a park upgrade going to Baltimore. What more do you need for $2500?
Other options – Ian Desmond, Justin Bour, Justin Smoak, Chris Davis
Catcher values – Salvador Perez, Yasmani Grandal, Chris Iannetta
D.J. LeMahieu, COL ($3600)
I’d much rather attack Jhoulys Chacin’s extreme splits with Blackmon/Cargo/Dahl, but LeMahieu is a fine target as the leadoff hitter in Coors. The Rockies have an IRT of 6.3 runs (slate high) and the wind is currently blowing out in Colorado. Chacin’s velocity is down this season, and it’s a perfect time to attack.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Whit Merrifield, Jonathan Schoop
Jonathan Schoop, BAL ($2900)
Schoop’s price is slowly on the rise, but he’s still too cheap at under 3k. Schoop is generally a better target against LHP but Ian Kennedy has allowed 1.71 HR/9 since the beginning of 2015. Baltimore is a prime hitting environment and Schoop generally hits in a premier lineup spot (third or fourth). The Orioles have a sneaky IRT of 4.7 runs.
Other options – Eduardo Nunez, Ian Kinsler, Ketel Marte
Travis Shaw, MIL ($4100)
Arenado edges out Shaw in terms of raw projection, but I’ll happily take the $1200 discount for the same par context. Shaw is once again smacking around right-handed pitching with a .377 wOBA and .301 ISO against them this season, and he’ll hit cleanup on the road in Coors Field. German Marquez has K upside but has allowed a 36% hard hit rate to LHB over the past two seasons. The Brew Crew have an IRT currently sitting at 5.2 runs and have power and speed upside.
Other options – Nolan Arenado, Mike Moustakas, Josh Donaldson
Matt Carpenter, STL ($2700)
Carpenter is struggling and is hitting in a poor park environment (San Diego), but he’ll right the ship soon enough, and he gets a great matchup against Jordan Lyles. The San Diego righty will enter the Padres rotation tonight, and he’s allowed a .405 wOBA and .225 ISO to LHB over the past two seasons. Carpenter has a .244 ISO against RHP in that span and has one of the best BB/K ratios in the league.
Other options – Yangervis Solarte, Miguel Andujar, Pedro Alvarez
Trevor Story, COL ($4100)
Story is another Colorado righty that I’m OK playing just based on context alone. Chacin is much better against righties, but Story should hit no lower than fifth and he’s posted a .235 ISO this year with a slightly lowered K rate. The opportunity cost at the position is slightly heightened with a lack of punts, so spending up for the Coors aspect is a fine strategy.
Other options – Manny Machado, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts
Jean Segura, SEA ($3100)
Segura came through for me yesterday as I faded Manny Machado, and I may go back to him even though he’s got a much tougher matchup today (J.A. Happ). It’s very possible that Segura gets five plate appearances on the road in Toronto, and Happ has allowed a 33% hard hit rate to RHB since the beginning of 2015. Toronto’s bullpen is compromised right now without Roberto Osuna as well.
Other options – Jose Peraza, Orlando Arcia
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($5000)
The lack of 10k+ pitchers makes it easy to fit in at least one big bat, and Blackmon will be mine tonight. Blackmon has followed up his MVP-caliber year with another great start this season, and he’s currently posting a .402 wOBA and .320 ISO against RHP. Jhoulys Chacin has a 5.44 FIP so far this year and has allowed a .369 wOBA and 1.44 HR/9 to LHB. Throw in the speed upside and he’s my top overall hitter tonight by a lot.
Other options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Soler
Carlos Gonzalez, COL ($3000)
CarGo has slipped through the cracks as the “underpriced Rockie” on this slate, and I’ll be locking him in as well as long as he’s batting cleanup again. He gets the same context as Blackmon and has posted a .207 ISO against RHP the last three years despite a rapidly declining skill set. He’s easy cheap access to Colorado’s 6.3 IRT.
Other options – David Dahl, Gerardo Parra, Teoscar Hernandez, Curtis Granderson, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Joc Pederson, Alex Verdugo, David Peralta, Domingo Santana, Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Jon Jay, Alex Gordon, Abraham Almonte