We got another 6 inches of snow yesterday in Maine and are expecting 1-4 more tonight, so it still doesn’t “feel” like baseball up here. That’s not stopping the FTA crew from doing some solid winning every night, and we’re giving away week-long free trials for anyone who wants to join our community. Simple follow @FanTeamAdvice on twitter and PM us for details. I’m also on twitter @jac3600 for any help. Without further ado, let’s get to tonight’s 10-game slate…
Jacob deGrom, NYM ($12,200)
Much like yesterday, we have some top notch offenses to target on this slate but it may make more sense to forego them in order to get a pitcher with a monstrous floor/ceiling combination (Verlander let us down yesterday but he was so high owned it didn’t matter). DeGrom has been absolutely unreal to start the season with a 50% K rate and a FIP UNDER 0.00 (which, I’ll admit, I didn’t even know was possible). Today he gets the Twins who will lose their DH, and while they aren’t striking out a ton they have an unbelievably low IRT of 2.6 runs. It’s really a matter of how much offense you want to sacrifice, especially since Gerrit Cole is viable at $1300 less.
Other options – Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola, Zack Greinke
Joey Lucchesi, SD ($8600)
The only real issue with Lucchesi (and it’s a decent-sized issue) is the fact that it’s almost impossible to expect six innings (and the QS start is big on FD). Lucchesi has only managed 83 and 87 pitches in his first two outings so far, but he’s rocking an elite 31.7% K rate, which includes seven Giants in 5.1 innings. He’s cheap enough to warrant GPP consideration, but I wouldn’t risk cash here with more opportunity cost at the position.
Other options – Jake Junis, Kyle Gibson, Derek Holland, Matt Harvey, Dakota Hudson
Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4900)
I strongly prefer the Colorado side of things in Coors as the Braves will take on German Marquez who is starting to look like last year was no fluke. It’s still Coors, however, and the Braves are coming in with an IRT of 5.1 runs after beating on Kyle Freeland last night. Freeman is the best Brave to roster, as he’s punished RHP for a .406 wOBA and .264 ISO over the last three years. He’s a key piece of Braves stacks and the best Atlanta player for one-offs, but spend your money elsewhere in cash.
Other options – Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt, Edwin Encarnacion
Chris Davis, BAL ($500)
Yes, you read the player right, and you also read the price tag right. He may not even be in the lineup as the O’s are facing a lefty (Brett Anderson), but if he is I think you can take him on even with his 0-47 start. Even if he happens to squeeze out a walk he’ll hit value, and he’s the best way for you to get deGrom with some expensive bats. If you don’t play him, I get it. If you do play him, I also get it.
Other options – Mark Reynolds, Christian Walker, Jesus Aguilar, Justin Bour, Tyler Austin
Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Chris Iannetta, Nick Hundley
Whit Merrifield, KC ($4200)
If Whit gets a hit tonight, he’ll match George Brett for the longest hitting streak by a Royal. That’s gotta be some incentive, but I’m more into the fact that this hitting streak really shows off the floor he has, and his 82 SBs since the beginning of 2017 highlights his ceiling. He will also have the platoon edge against Marco Gonzales who has allowed a 35% HHR to RHB since the beginning of last year.
Other options – Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, Jonathan Villar
Wilmer Flores, ARI ($2200)
Keep an eye on Garrett Hampson’s lineup spot, as he could leapfrog Flores here, but Flores is a terrific value at $2200 as long as he continues to hit third. Flores has been a platoon monster for his career, and Mike Minor has allowed a 47% FB rate to RHB over the past three years to go along with 1.43 HR/9 allowed. The more values you can fit in to get deGrom, the better.
Other options – Garrett Hampson, Ian Kinsler, Rougned Odor, Brian Dozier
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4400)
Arenado is off to a slow start in 2019 with no homers, six RBI, and an .093 ISO, but we know that won’t last. Arenado absolutely massacred lefties last season for a .488 wOBA and 1.199 OPS, and Max Fried has allowed a career 35% HHR to RHB while often struggling with command. The Rockies have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.5 runs. You want one of Arenado or Story as your one big bat if you go deGrom.
Other options – Alex Bregman, Josh Donaldson, Matt Chapman
Chad Pinder, OAK ($2500)
Pinder hit fifth yesterday, and he’d make another nice value if he’s there again. Nick Means (?) is on the hill for Baltimore, and Pinder has a 1.063 OPS against LHP so far this year to go along with a 40% HHR overall. Baltimore’s bullpen ranks 28th in SIERA, so Oakland’s 5.3 IRT is well warranted once again.
Other options – Travis Shaw, Eduardo Escobar
Trevor Story, COL ($4300)
Story is actually my top ranked hitter today despite Arenado having a longer history against LHP. Last year he was right with Arenado against LHP with a .442 wOBA, 1.069 OPS, and a 166 wRC+. He also added 27 SBs last season, and Tyler Flowers was the worst ranked catcher last season as far as pop an release time. He’s my #DFSHRcall tonight.
Other options – Adalberto Mondesi, Jean Segura
Corey Seager, LAD ($3100)
The Dodgers have an IRT of 4.4 runs which is OK but not great. However, they are collectively ranked first in ISO against RHP and Seager posted a .379 wOBA and .224 ISO against RHP in the two seasons before he got hurt. I’d pay up for Story, but if you go Arenado instead Seager is a logical choice.
Other options – Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons
Khris Davis, OAK ($4000)
KKKKKKKKRUSHHHHHHHH!! He’s been incredible against LHP, with a .267 ISO for his career, and he’s really developed into a world class hitter. He’s the cornerstone piece for A’s stacks, and the highest floor/ceiling play for an A’s team with a 5.3 IRT.
Other options – Ronald Acuna, Ender Inciarte, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Charlie Blackmon, Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Joey Gall, Ryan Braun, Mallex Smith, Mitch Haniger, Stephen Piscotty
Ian Desmond, COL ($3000)
If you don’t want to pay through the nose for Arenado/Story, Desmond is a cheaper (albeit worse) way to get exposure to the top offense. Desmond should get a solid lineup spot (fourth or fifth) and adds a speed component to his career .176 ISO and 34% HHR against LHP.
Other options – Mark Canha, Ramon Laureano, Jay Bruce, Joc Pederson, Wil Myers, Manuel Margot, Raimel Tapia, Adam Eaton, Michael Conforto, Brandon NimmoFantasy Baseball