FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 4/8/19


What an exciting night for FantasyTeamAdvice, as we crowned our second 100k winner this year (a huge congrats to @King9999 for his PGA takedown). If you haven’t checked out Alex Blickle’s PGA model on site, you’re missing out on free money, and our A.C.E MLB model is state-of-the-art as well. Tonight is going to be tough, as Verlander looks like a lock, but there are SUCH good offenses, including Coors. I’ll be in chat helping our subs, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Justin Verlander, HOU ($10,700)

You’re going to need to pass on some fun offensive players tonight, but I can’t imagine fading Verlander on this slate, as he pretty much laps the field as far as the other starting pitchers go. The Yankees really flexed their muscles over the weekend in Baltimore, but the current Yankee lineup is hitting just .190 against Verlander with a 32% K rate. Verlander owned them last season, and now they don’t have Stanton, Hicks, Andujar, or Gregorius. It’s tough to envision a scenario where Verlander isn’t the highest scoring pitcher tonight, by a wide margin.

Other options – Masahiro Tanaka, Madison Bumgarner

VALUE PLAY

Eric Lauer, SD ($7100)

I like Lauer as a DraftKings SP2 more than a GPP player on FD, but you need some cheap options if you want to stack Coors or some of the other top offenses of the evening. Lauer had a 19.8% K rate last season, which is good but not great. However, his real value lies in his opponent. Buster Posey is the only Giant with a baseline wOBA over .325 against LHP, and Lauer already has a game in hand against these Giants where he put up 37 FD points.

Other options – Miles Mikolas, Vince Velasquez, Trevor Cahill, Julio Teheran

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Edwin Encarnacion, SEA ($3600)

Luckily, Coors Field is not the be-all end-all for DFS hitters tonight, and we have other games that are almost as good. The Mariners carry an early IRT of 4.7 runs against Homer Bailey, who I really can’t understand why he’s still in a major league rotation. Bailey was pounded by same-handed hitting last season for a .362 wOBA and a 45.6% HHR, and he’s backed by a bullpen that is currently sporting an 8.86 ERA. The hot-hitting Mariners have nine-innings of upside tonight.

Other options – Freddie Freeman, Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt

VALUE PLAY

Kendrys Morales, OAK ($2600)

The OAK/BAL game is going to be your best source of value tonight with an O/U 9.5, and Oakland’s part of that is an IRT of five runs. The A’s are getting a huge park boost going to Baltimore, and they are facing Andrew Cashner who has a sub-15% K rate over the last three years while allowing 1.32 HR/9 in that span. He’s backed by a bullpen that was decimated by the Yankees this weekend, and Morales has a .196 ISO over the last three years. Kendrys is also 6-10 with three homers in his career against Cashner, with no strikeouts.

Other options – Mark Reynolds, Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Bour

Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Buster Posey, Tyler Flowers, Yan Gomes

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Whit Merrifield, KC ($4200)

Whit won’t make my cash lineups at this price, but he’s an elite GPP option. He’s now hit safely in 28 straight games and already has a homer and three steals on the young season. Felix Hernandez looked good in his first outing, but his velocity is way down and he’s only posted a 17% K rate the last two years while allowing 1.58 HR/9. This is an elite game to stack.

Other options – Ozzie Albies, Jose Altuve, Jonathan Villar

VALUE PLAY

Jurickson Profar, OAK ($2300)

Profar has been hitting sixth for the A’s, which isn’t ideal but certainly usable if you want Verlander and some of the top offensive bats in cash. The switch-hitting Profar slugged a .204 ISO last season in limited time with the Rangers, and he’s getting the same park boost described in Morales’ blurb.

Other options – Garrett Hampson, Ian Kinsler, Brian Dozier

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Josh Donaldson, ATL ($3900)

Third base looks like a position of high opportunity cost tonight, so I think it should be one of the spots you allocate some decent funds to. With Arenado off to a slow start this year, Donaldson looks like the go-to play at $400 less. He’s made a career of lefty bashing, with a .409 wOBA and .296 ISO against LHP, and while Kyle Freeland is a strong pitcher he still struggles with hard contact allowed to RHB, and the Coors factor is always present.

Other options – Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman, Alex Bregman

VALUE PLAY

Evan Longoria, SF ($2400)

The SF/SD game is one of the worst environments to target here, but Longoria at least presents an option as a platoon play. His skills are rapidly declining, but he’s still got a career .359 wOBA and .228 ISO against LHP. Eric Lauer has been prone to righty power so far in his young career.

Other options – Travis Shaw, Hunter Dozier, Rio Ruiz

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trevor Story, COL ($4300)

Story left yesterday’s game after being hit by a pitch, so we’ll have to track his status (David Dahl was hurt also, and if both are out you can REALLY make a case for Teheran as your SP2 on DK). Teheran has routinely dominated righties while struggling against lefties, but last year he actually allowed more power (1.46 HR/9) to RHB, and almost two homers per nine to them on the road. Story is an elite hitter whose K rate has come WAY down, and he is viable in all formats.

Other options – Adalberto Mondesi, Jean Segura, Carlos Correa

VALUE PLAY

Corey Seager, LAD ($3100)

Seager is off to a slow start, but he had two doubles last night, and his struggles are now baked into his price tag. Miles Mikolas was a strong pitcher last year, but he’s been horrid to start 2019 with an 8.09 FIP and an 11% K rate. The lack of K’s aren’t an anomaly either, as Mikolas only had an 18% K rate last season, and I’m never shy about attacking a guy who pitches to contact in DFS.

Other options – Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Zack Cozart

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Charlie Blackmon, COL ($4000)

When I looked at the slate last night, I figured for sure Blackmon would be the unquestioned top play. I’m still ranking him #1, but it’s honestly tougher than I thought with the likes of Acuna, Harper, and Khris Davis also presenting as options (plus his teammate Dahl, if he’s in). Ultimately, Blackmon is just too cheap for a home game at Coors, with the platoon edge against a pitcher who has struggled his whole career in the platoon split. Even in a “down year”, Blackmon posted a .376 wOBA and .235 ISO against RHP, and the Rockies (predictably) lead the slate with a 5.5 IRT.

Other options – Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna, Ender Inciarte, David Dahl, Bryce Harper, Juan Soto, Andrew McCutchen, Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty, Jay Bruce, Mallex Smith, Trey Mancini, Domingo Santana, Mitch Haniger

VALUE PLAY

Robbie Grossman, OAK ($2700)

DraftKings hiked up Grossman’s price tag to 4k which is annoying, but FD has done no such thing, and Grossman will be a key piece to cash builds as long as he’s still leading off. Being the table-setter on the road in Baltimore against Cashner and the O’s bullpen is great as Grossman will likely be looking at five PAs, and he has a 25% HHR over the last five games.

Other options – Joc Pederson, Ian Desmond, Adam Eaton, Cedric Mullins, Dwight Smith, Wil Myers, Ramon Laureano, Marcell Ozuna, Billy Hamiton, Franmil Reyes, Manuel Margot

Fantasy Baseball