Happy Sunday everyone! Yesterday was a mixed bag of results as I lost on FD (now two losses in a row after nine straight wins) but won handily on DK thanks to the contributions of Yu Darvish and Kris Bryant late in the day. The Cubs are going to be popping again today as solid plays across the board, but we’ll start with the pitching where the theme of the weekend has been the Astros starters. I’ll see you all in chat around 11:45 EST, and follow me on twitter @jac3600!
Charlie Morton, HOU ($9100)
I won’t call Morton a lock like I had McCullers and Cole the last two days (one hit, one did not), but Morton is still clearly the top option of the day as he’s a massive -245 favorite with a 3.3 IRTA. Morton increased velocity has upped his K rate tremendously over the last year, and the Padres have a long of swing-and-miss potential (plus they’ve lost Wil Myers). If you need the extra money to dip down to Quintana or Clevinger, I think that’s acceptable today, but I’m attempting to build around Morton.
Other options – Jose Quintana, Mike Clevinger, Jake Arrieta, Jameson Taillon
Luke Weaver, STL ($7700)
Weaver actually has the lowest IRTA at 3.2 runs, and his dazzling rookie season makes him a VERY interesting play today against the D’Backs. Weaver posted a 28.6% K rate last year along with a 2.93 xFIP, and Arizona’s major threats all come from the right side of the plate (Jake Lamb is on the DL). FD’s looser pricing scheme makes it so it’s not totally necessary to use him in cash, but you certainly can if there are multiple stud hitters you don’t want to fade.
Other options – Jordan Montgomery, Reynaldo Lopez, Mike Fiers, Trevor Richards
Anthony Rizzo, CHC ($3600)
Chase Anderson is a solid pitcher who is actually more prone to RHB than LHB, but Rizzo is simply too cheap at $3600, and Milwaukee is one of the few genuinely good hitting environments we have on this slate. Rizzo has a .397 wOBA and .266 ISO against RHP over the last two years, and Milwaukee also just lost their best reliever (Corey Knebel) for 4-6 weeks. Rizzo’s missed the last two games with a back ailment, so you’ll have to verify his status first, but he’s an amazing target.
Other options – Jose Abreu, Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sanchez
Carlos Santana, PHI ($3400)
The Phils may be a bit popular today after their 20-run outburst yesterday, and it’s really not an awful idea since they’re facing an unproven rookie and a bullpen that was absolutely beasted last night. Santana’s super high BB rate always gives him a nice cash floor, and Santana has a .253 ISO against RHP the last two years. Really, though, if you’re in this price range, just get up to Rizzo.
Other options – Ryan Braun, Willson Contreras, Neil Walker, Yonder Alonso, Justin Bour
Catcher punts – Victor Martinez, Wilson Ramos
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4600)
Altuve is a difficult fit in cash unless you’re taking someone like Weaver as your pitcher, but you can’t ever argue playing the guy. He’s already got 14 hits this year (the only game he didn’t get a hit was the first one), and his power/speed upside give him a massive ceiling. The Astros’ 5.2 IRT is currently tied with the Yankees for the highest, and Tyson Ross is just not the same pitcher anymore after his slew of arm injuries.
Other options – Brian Dozier, Robinson Cano
Jason Kipnis, CLE ($2900)
I’m a fan of the Indians today as a sneaky stack, and there are individual plays you can use in cash. Kipnis is one of them as long as he keeps batting near the top of the order, and he’ll hold the platoon edge against Jason Hammel who has allowed 1.39 HR/9 and a 35% hard hit rate to LHB over the past two years. The hitting environment isn’t great, but Cleveland is still carrying a solid 4.7 IRT.
Other options – Jonathan Schoop, Yoan Moncada, Javier Baez, Cesar Hernandez
Kris Bryant, CHC ($4100)
Bryant was my knight in shining armor on DK yesterday, and he’s WAY too cheap on FD at $4100. Chase Anderson has allowed a .354 wOBA and a .215 ISO to RHB over the past two years, and Bryant has a .380 wOBA and .240 ISO against same-handed pitchers in that time frame. Bryant has come out of the game firing, and is one of the strongest plays on this slate.
Other options – Miguel Sano, Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez
Kyle Seager, SEA ($2400)
Opportunity cost at 3B is pretty high today, but if you do feel the need to punt Seager is easily the best option. Lance Lynn is much more susceptible to LHB (.366 wOBA and 1.40 HR/9 allowed to them the last three years) and Seager has a .217 ISO against RHP in that time frame. I prefer to spend at 3B for cash today, but Seager is viable, and great in a Mariners stack.
Other options – Jeimer Candelario, Tim Beckham, Miguel Andujar
Manny Machado, BAL ($3900)
I don’t generally play the “hot streak” card, but Machado has absolutely brutalized the Yankees in this series with two homers, a double, three runs scored, and four RBIs. His hard his rate is almost 50% over the last five games, and he has a .221 ISO against LHP the last two years. Just remember that it’s cold in NY, which hurts his value a tad.
Other options – Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Didi Gregorius
J.P. Crawford, PHI ($2000)
There’s virtually nothing in the way of value at the SS position, but Crawford is viable if you need a punt. He’s not a great hitter but he’ll have the platoon edge against a guy who had never pitched above AA before this year, and he’s hit sixth or seventh when he’s been in the lineup which is not the worst thing in the world.
Other options – Jean Segura, Ketel Marte
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4800)
Stanton is once again the crown jewel of the slate and he’s someone you’re going to want to make a conscious effort to get in. The Yankees have a 5.2 IRT despite the cold temperatures in NY and that’s a direct indictment of how awful a pitcher Mike Wright is. In his career, Wright has a 5.08 xFIP and a 16.6% K rate, and he’s allowed 1.63 HR/9. If Stanton isn’t striking out, he destroying you, and he has well over a .300 ISO against same-handed pitching.
Other options – Aaron Judge, George Springer, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Reddick, Dee Gordon
Brett Gardner, NYY ($3200)
I screwed up by missing out on “Brett Gardner chalk day” yesterday but I won’t do it again. His price is up a bit but he’s the table setter for a Yankees offense that you have to feel really good about today against Mike Wright. Gardner is a sneaky event player as he just missed a 20/20 season last year, and he has a usable .165 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last season.
Other options – Ian Happ, Andrew Benintendi, Corey Dickerson, Domingo Santana, Dexter Fowler, Derek Fisher, Leonys Martin, Nick Delmonico, Nick Williams
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