FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 4/30/18

We wrapped up the week in style, with a 3-for-3 day cashing on all sites.  I’m now up to a six-day winning streak on DraftKings, and here’s hoping this is the start of something similar on FanDuel.  We have a nice ten-game slate for a Monday tonight, but the pitching is rather tenuous.  Luckily there are some mid-tier values that can be used in cash, so we’ll start there.  I will be on FTA+ chat tonight helping you all cash out, and follow me on twitter @jac3600.

 

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Zack Greinke, ARI ($9100)

Greinke tops a rather mediocre “top tier” of pitching.  He’s tough to pin down right now, as he’s allowing more hard contact than ever before but is also posting a career high in K% with a 26.2% mark.  The Dodgers aren’t the friendliest of matchups but they’re cold right now, and Greinke’s 4.80 ERA is not backed up by a much better 3.11 xFIP.  Ultimately I’d still rather risk Eduardo Rodriguez (see below) in cash than pay this price tag, because there are some solid bats I want in there.

Other options – Charlie Morton, Jake Arrieta

 

VALUE PLAY

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS ($7400)

E-Rod will be my likely choice for cash against the 7-20 Royals.  He doesn’t tend to work deep into games but he has gone 6+ innings in his last three, posting a quality start in all.  The Royals aren’t the contact-oriented team they’ve been the last few years, and Rodriguez is posting an excellent 24.5% K rate so far this season.  He’s also the Vegas choice, as he’s a -225 favorite (highest on the slate) with a 3.6 IRTA (second lowest).  Add all this up (combined with a friendly price tag) and you have a smart choice.

Other options – Jon Lester, Sonny Gray, Dan Straily, Eric Lauer

 

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

TOP PLAY

Joey Votto, CIN ($4100)

With the focus on cheap pitching, multiple big bats with be in play for you in cash.  Votto leads the way at 1B with a honey of a matchup against Jhoulys Chacin (1.44 HR/9 allowed to LHB the past three years).  In that span, Votto has killed RHP for a .418 wOBA and .235 ISO, and he’s been crushing the ball the last ten games.  He’s one of the best players in baseball that no one realizes is one of the best players in baseball.

Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Hanley Ramirez, Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rizzo, Justin Smoak

 

VALUE PLAY

Brad Miller, TB ($2700)

The UTIL position is really valuable on FD as you can play a top 1B above while still getting in a nice cheap value like Miller.  The Rays have been surprisingly good offensively lately, and tonight they’ll face Jordan Zimmermann who is once again getting beaten up (7.91 ERA, 2.33 HR/9 allowed).  Miller has a .191 ISO against RHP the last three years and is hitting cleanup for the Rays.

Other options – Carlos Santana, Willson Contreras, Logan Morrison, Matt Adams

Catcher values – Buster Posey, Wilson Ramos, Chris Iannetta, Manny Pina

 

SECOND BASE

TOP PLAY

Javier Baez, CHC ($4200)

Baez checks in at the top of the position for the first time this year.  He’s taken the big step forward this season and is now being rewarded with premier lineup spots.  The Cubs’ initial total is 5.2 runs which has a lot to do with the fact that it’s warm in Chicago today and the wind is blowing out.  Baez’s K rate has plummeted from 28% to 21% this year, and he already has a combined ten homers and steals.  He’s facing off against Kyle Freeland who has allowed a .378 wOBA and 1.57 HR/9 to RHB over the past two years.  Baez is in play in all formats.

Other options – Jose Altuve, Brian Dozier, DJ LeMahieu, Scooter Gennett

 

VALUE PLAY

Whit Merrifield, KC ($3200)

There are literally no values at 2B yet, so I recommend spending up.  Merrifield is really the cheapest option with any kind of intrigue (combined 53 homers and steals last year), but he’s facing my pitching target and the Royals have a really low IRT.  Merrifield is good as a leverage play in GPPs.

Other options – Joey Wendle, Howie Kendrick, Gleyber Torres

 

THIRD BASE

TOP PLAY

Kris Bryant, CHC ($4200)

Bryant is my top overall hitter on the slate, and will be a fixture in my cash lineups no matter where else I spend.  I’ve mentioned Kyle Freeland’s struggles against RHP, and Bryant has destroyed left-handed pitching in his career with a .406 wOBA and .257 ISO.  He’s also rapidly bettering his plate discipline as the BB rate is on the rise and the K rate is on the decline.  It’s almost impossible for me to endorse fading KB no matter who your SP is.

Other options – Nolan Arenado, Rafael Devers, Alex Bregman

 

VALUE PLAY

Yangervis Solarte, TOR ($3200)

Solarte has been so good for the Blue Jays thus far, and has now entrenched himself as their cleanup hitter (at least until Donaldson comes back).  Solarte has only a 15% K rate this year to go along with a .264 ISO, so there’s reason to believe he’ll continue his success.  The park environment in Minnesota is not good for lefty power but the matchup certainly is (Lance Lynn has allowed 1.49 HR/9 to LHB the last three years).

Other options – Jeimer Candelario, Eugenio Suarez, Evan Longoria

 

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Trea Turner, WAS ($4000)

The SS position is tricky today, and there’s really not much to love in any tier.  Turner’s blazing speed offers some nice upside, and that’s aided by Francisco Cervelli’s negative wSB rating.  The issue is Jameson Taillon is terrific at limiting hard and aerial contact, and Washington only has a 3.8 IRT.  Taillon is coming off two disaster starts, so maybe there’s reason to play Turner here.

Other options – Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts

 

VALUE PLAY

Addison Russell, CHC ($2400)

Right now my tactic will be to totally punt the position with Russell, even though he’s been bad and has been dropped to 7th in the batting order.  He gets the same great matchup against Kyle Freeland as I’ve mentioned with his teammates, and Russell does have a .181 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year.  This is a way to get cheap exposure to the top team on the slate without sacrificing money for the really good players.

Other options – Corey Seager, Eduardo Nunez (top option if Betts is out and Nunez leads off again), Jose Peraza

 

OUTFIELD

TOP PLAY

Mookie Betts/JD Martinez/Andrew Benintendi, BOS ($4900/$4100/$4000)

If possible it would be nice to get one of the Red Sox OFs in there.  I’ve been harping on the Cubs this whole article but the Red Sox are really the top offense on the slate with their 5.4 IRT.  They are facing Jason Hammel who is coming off a few horrid years and is allowing an even higher hard hit rate to all batters this year.  The Red Sox are first in wRC+ against RHP and are tied for first in ISO against them.  They make for a monster stack and it would nice to have at least one piece in cash.

Other options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, George Springer, Lorenzo Cain, Rhys Hoskins, AJ Pollock, David Peralta, Christian Yelich

 

VALUE PLAY

Ryan Braun/Domingo Santana, MIL ($3300/$2800)

While the Red Sox offer the top outfielder today, the Brewers come in with the best values, as Braun and Santana are simply too cheap on this slate for the upside they offer against LHP.  They’ve both destroyed them their entire careers, and Brandon Finnegan has allowed 1.80 HR/9 to RHB since the beginning of last year (2.13 to start this season).  I’m likely playing both in cash tonight.

Other options – Andrew McCutchen, Austin Jackson, Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, Albert Almora, Ian Happ, Jesse Winker, Jarrod Dyson, Joc Pederson, Matt Kemp, Aaron Altherr, Hernan Perez

 

 

By | 2018-04-30T10:50:43+00:00 April 30th, 2018|Daily MLB, DFS Lineup Advice|0 Comments

About the Author:

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Jamie Calandro (DFS alias jac3600) is fantasyteamadvice.com's lead baseball writer and has been playing fantasy MLB, NFL, and NBA since 2001. He has won various titles and is a four-time NFBC and three-time NFFC champion. He is a seasoned daily fantasy sports player, logging in 7 days a week on multiple sites. He has cracked the top 300 monthly leaderboard in all three major sports, and has turned a profit for 44 of the last 48 months, winning large-field GPPs in all three sports on DraftKings and FanDuel. His most recent big win includes a top 50 finish in DraftKings' 93,000-player Millionaire Maker tournament. A sports fanatic, Jamie roots heavily for the Yankees, Giants, and Knicks, and is eager to contribute more to the fantasy sports world. Regular articles contributed: Weekly sit/start (NFL) Weekly DraftKings picks (NFL) Daily FanDuel picks (NBA) Weekly two-start pitchers (MLB) Daily stackable lineups (MLB)

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