The late games were awesome! Heroics from Marcus Semien and Kike Hernandez propelled all my teams into the money, and DraftKings was a REAL pleasure this morning as the only site that offered Walker Buehler (who came through nicely for a cheap tag). Charlie Blackmon was the dud of the night, and tonight’s Coors slate is…interesting, to say the least. Follow along with me on twitter @jac3600, and I’ll see you all in FTA+ chat tonight!
Robbie Ray, ARI ($9300)
Despite a slow start as far as run prevention goes (due to a bit of a velocity dip), Robbie Ray is easily the cash choice on FD at a depressed price tag. Ray is getting a park boost going to Philadelphia and the Phillies had the fourth highest K rate against LHP a year ago. Even if you adopt the run prevention risk Ray brings, he laps the field as far as K upside goes (32.8 K% last year, 33% to start this season).
Other options – Charlie Morton, Shohei Ohtani, Kenta Maeda
Vince Velasquez, PHI ($7500)
The best GPP value in my eyes is Ray’s opponent. After a terrible start to the season, Velasquez has thrown three straight quality starts while racking up 20 strikeouts. The Diamondbacks rank 23rd in wRC+ against RHP with the fifth highest K rate against them, and their two most fearsome hitters are right-handed (Goldschmidt and Pollock). The win could go either way here, but both pitchers in this game have appeal.
Other options – Tanner Roark, Chad Kuhl, Jake Faria, Alex Cobb
Joey Gallo, TEX ($3700)
I hate paying this price tag for someone with SUCH a high K rate, but this is the type of matchup you want to target him in. Andrew Triggs is a solid GB pitcher but is getting a huge park downgrade going to Texas and only generated a 17.7% K rate last year. Gallo has immense power and his home park will only aid that. He’s a viable target in all formats tonight, but I really do prefer GPPs.
Other options – Paul Goldschmidt, Justin Smoak, Eric Thames, Eric Hosmer
Lucas Duda, KC ($2300)
Duda is a great value on FD tonight at $2300. He will have the platoon edge against Zack Davies, and Duda has generated over a .300 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. He’ll likely hit cleanup, which makes him FAR too cheap on this slate. He’ll likely make his way into my cash lineups tonight (either at 1B or UTIL), and he makes a nice upside punt in GPPs too.
Other options – Ian Desmond, Carlos Santana, Chris Iannetta, Ryan Zimmerman, Chris Davis, Pedro Alvarez
Catcher punts – Robinson Chirinos, Russell Martin, Jonathan Lucroy
D.J. LeMahieu, COL ($4200)
With Jose Altuve facing Ohtani, LeMahieu rises to the top of the 2B heap with the Coors Field effect in play. Eric Lauer is making his MLB debut for the Padres and he’s an intriguing prospect with a 26.4% K rate in AAA so far this year, but he’s in Coors Field, and he’s struggled keeping the ball on the ground all through the minors. The Rockies have the highest IRT on the slate at 5.5 runs despite the forecast calling for temps in the low 40s, and LeMahieu is performing at a high level in his contract year.
Other options – Jose Altuve, Jed Lowrie
Howie Kendrick, WAS ($2900)
As long as Kendrick hits second for the Nationals, I like him as the top value on FD. Ty Blach is absolutely allergic to strikeouts (career 11% K rate), and Kendrick had a .385 wOBA and .189 ISO against LHP last season. Hitting in front of Bryce Harper is always good for fantasy prospects given the increased amount of fastballs Kendrick will see, and there’s a good chance he sees five PAs.
Other options – Matt Carpenter, Ketel Marte, Joe Panik
Nolan Arenado, COL ($5100)
Arenado against a lefty is such a tough fade, but it can be done again with the presence of Kike Hernandez (see below). If you find your values elsewhere, however, there is certainly no argument against paying the high price for Arenado. Over the past two seasons, he has rocked LHP for a .436 wOBA and .313 ISO, and he has nine hits and three homers in his last four games. Right now I’m leaning towards paying for Nolan, but Kike is certainly an option.
Other options – Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas, Matt Chapman
Kike Hernandez, LAD ($2500)
Kike came up big for me yesterday against a lefty, and tonight he faces an even worse one in Dillon Peters. Kike’s .270 ISO against LHP over the last three years makes him a platoon darling, and he ranks as one of the top values on the slate despite always carrying PH risk. As I said, the OF values on this slate have me looking more towards paying up for Arenado, but Kike is viable in all formats.
Other options – Colin Moran, Daniel DeScalso
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3700)
I’m going right back to the Semien well! Trevor Story is very enticing in Coors Field, but he’s against a pitcher with K upside which gives me pause. Semien has crushed LHP his entire career and continues to get the park boost leading off in Texas. Cole Hamels is a better pitcher than Semien faced yesterday, but he’s still not his former self anymore. Hamels has posted a 5.26 FIP this year while allowing 2.22 HR/9, and the A’s have an IRT approaching five runs.
Other options – Trevor Story, Manny Machado, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa
Eduardo Nunez, BOS ($3000)
I think you have to pay up once again in cash for shortstop (unless lineups provide us with a punt), but Nunez is an adequate GPP play at $3000. He’ll likely hit sixth for a potent Red Sox lineup and face off against J.A. Happ who has allowed 1.26 HR/9 to RHB over the past three years. Nunez will be in a plus environment in climate-controlled Toronto.
Other options – Jurickson Profar, Orlando Arcia
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($5300)
Blackmon was a huge letdown last night in a plus matchup, and tonight he has a L/L draw against Eric Lauer. As I’ve written this article, the Rockies’ IRT has crept up from 5.5 runs to six, and Blackmon was just fine against same-handed pitching last year with a .404 wOBA and .226 ISO. Arenado gets my vote of the higher priority of the two Colorado “bigs”, but Blackmon is certainly in play if you use Kike at third.
Other options – Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Khris Davis, George Springer, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Gregory Polanco
Wil Myers, SD ($3400)
Myers came up big last night (although not in the HR challenge for me) and I play on going right back to him tonight. Myers will likely hit second on the road in Coors (which means five PAs) and he had a .207 ISO against LHP last season. Eric Freeland is capable of keeping the ball on the ground but he’s allowed almost a 37% hard hit rate to RHB over the last two years. Myers is still way too cheap at $3400 for a date with Coors.
Other options – Jose Pirela, Manuel Margot, Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields, Stephen Piscotty, Curtis Granderson, Yasiel Puig, David Dahl, Adam Frazier
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