It’s a new week with new series’ to approach! The Coors aspect is very interesting today too, as many members (particularly on the Padres’ side) are underpriced. It’s important to keep in mind that trends will start to change as the weather changes too, and we will help keep you up to speed in FTA+ chat with the adjustment period. You can also follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck!
Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($9600)
Gerrit Cole has been amazing this season, but he was rather pedestrian in a tough matchup against the Mariners last time out and faces a similar draw today with the Angels. For that reason, I’d much rather take the discount on Carrasco who is facing an Orioles team that has the highest K rate so far this season (even though Kluber didn’t totally dominate them yesterday). Carrasco has allowed only a .274 wOBA and .100 ISO to RHB over the past three years, and the Orioles have literally no lefties that strike fear in anyone. He’s my clear cash target on this slate.
Other options – Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka
Mike Leake, SEA ($5700)
In GPPs, I like the idea of punting ALL the way down and going with Mike Leake, as you can load up on several pretty potent bats. Leake has virtually no K upside but is facing a White Sox lineup that projects to be in the bottom five in wOBA against RHP with one of the highest K rates (they’re fifth right now). Leake is a -140 favorite on the road with only a 4 IRTA.
Other options – Gio Gonzalez, Chris Stratton, Trevor Cahill
Gary Sanchez, NYY ($3900)
For me, a catcher takes the top honors at the position today. Sanchez will be hitting fifth for a Yankees team that has an IRT of five runs, and he’s facing Jake Odorizzi who has been a serious reverse-split pitcher for his career. Over the past four years, Odorizzi has allowed a .206 ISO and 1.56 HR/9 to same-handed bats, and Sanchez’s power upside is tremendous. He doesn’t quite fit the cash mold, but is an elite GPP option.
Other options – Cody Bellinger, Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Gallo
Eric Hosmer, SD ($3100)
Hosmer is the first of many Padres that are simply underpriced on FD. Chad Bettis is more of a reverse-split pitcher, but with Hosmer you’re getting an excellent hitter in Coors for way less than he should be. Over his career, Hosmer has posted a very usable .354 wOBA and .174 ISO against RHP, and the park upgrade here is about as good as it gets.
Other options – Ian Desmond, Matt Olson, Yuli Gurriel, Logan Morrison
Catcher punts – Evan Gattis, Jonathan Lucroy, Austin Hedges
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4600)
Altuve, I just can’t quit you, even with Coors on the slate. I probably won’t fit Altuve into cash with the onus on other big bats, but Altuve has over a .400 wOBA against LHP over the past four seasons and Tyler Skaggs (while talented) is homer-prone. The Astros have a sneaky IRT of five runs, and will likely go underowned in GPPs.
Other options – DJ LeMahieu, Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, Brian Dozier
Jason Kipnis, CLE ($3300)
Kevin Gausman is another pitcher you’re more likely to attack with same-handed pitching, but he’s been such a mess this year that any Indians are fine at the right price. Kipnis will hit second on the road, and the weather is warming up in Baltimore which is a hitters’ park anyway. Gausman has a 6.06 FIP and has allowed 2.57 HR/9 to start the year.
Other options – Yoan Moncada, Howie Kendrick, Carlos Asuaje, Gleyber Torres
Nolan Arenado, COL ($5000)
There is a value at 3B I really like (see below), so Blackmon will likely be my “top Rockie” today, but there is no argument against thinking that Arenado is the best overall play. Arenado has a .380 wOBA and .274 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of 2015, and Bryan Mitchell has a ZiPS projected 6.27 xFIP this season (in a pitchers’ park). He’s also allowed a 42.6% hard hit rate this year, and is liable to get spanked by the Rockies.
Other options – Jose Ramirez, Christian Villanueva, Alex Bregman, Matt Chapman
Kike Hernandez, LAD ($2500)
A reason I’m OK fading Arenado for Blackmon on this slate is the presence of Kike Hernandez at $2500. He’s always a PH risk, but the Dodgers have a solid IRT at 4.8 runs and Kike has always been a lefty killer. Jarlin Garcia is pitching over his head right now, and Kike has a .375 wOBA and .269 ISO against LHP since the beginning of 2016. He should be locked into the third or fourth spot in the lineup as well.
Other options – Adrian Beltre, Miguel Andujar, Kyle Seager
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3600)
This is a surprise name to have at the top when there are other stud shortstops participating, but it’s a play I’m really comfortable with. Oakland is getting an insane park boost in their favor going to Texas, and Semien will lead off for the A’s who have a really solid IRT at 5.1 runs as of now. Semien has a .202 ISO against LHP over the last three years and Matt Moore has allowed 1.60 HR/9 to RHB in that span. Semien also brings a bit of speed upside to the table, and is a strong target in all formats.
Other options – Didi Gregorius, Manny Machado, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner, Trevor Story, Jean Segura
Corey Seager, LAD ($3300)
I wouldn’t dip past Semien in cash as far as this position goes, but Seager is a really fun GPP option at a price tag not worthy of his skills. People will shy away in the L/L matchup, but Seager has posted a very usable .171 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last year and will likely get at least 1-2 at-bats against a lousy Marlins bullpen. He’s a great one-off, and a nice addition to your Dodgers’ stacks.
Other options – Freddy Galvis, Eduardo Escobar, Jurickson Profar
Charlie Blackmon, COL ($5200)
I’m tempted to save the $400 and go back to the well on Stanton instead, but I really can’t pass up on Blackmon as the top player tonight. The Rockies have an IRT of 6.1 runs which is a full run higher than any team on the board, and Blackmon will have the platoon edge against Bryan Mitchell who I’ve already discussed. Blackmon has picked up right where he left off this year, and he had a .420 wOBA and .292 ISO against RHP a season ago.
Other options – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, George Springer, Khris Davis, Nelson Cruz, Shin Soo Choo
Wil Myers/Manuel Margot, SD ($3100/$2400)
Myers and Margot are both locks for me in FD cash tonight. They are each severely underpriced for a Coors visit, and should hit 1-2 against the Rockies. Five plate appearances for each one is almost a given, and Rockies pitcher Chad Bettis is pitching way over his head (4.79 xFIP masks his 1.44 ERA). Bettis is also a career reverse-split pitcher, and has allowed a .354 wOBA and .199 ISO to RHB since the beginning of 2015. Myers is especially intriguing given the fact that he’s posted a 50% hard hit rate since returning from the DL.
Other options – Yasiel Puig, Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp, Stephen Piscotty, Nomar Mazara, Delino DeShields, Franchy Cordero, Nick Delmonico, Austin Jackson