I have returned from my week-long Florida vacation with a big case of the post-trip blues, but I’m also excited to get back to my regular playing of DFS! We have a fun Sunday slate to deal with, and FD comes with an immediate decision at SP due to some severe pricing discrepancies (more on this below). I will make my triumphant return to FTA+ chat around 11:45 EST this morning, and you can follow me on twitter @jac3600. Good luck today!
Corey Kluber, CLE ($11,500)
Kluber is the clear-cut top play at SP on this slate, but the fact that Lance McCullers is $2700 cheaper raises some serious questions of whether or not you need to pay all the way up and sacrifice the big bats. Despite a dip in velocity to start the season, Kluber is still maintaining a 30.3% K rate and is facing the Orioles who have struck out the most against RHP. On any other day, this would look like a lock, but McCullers is a serious wrench into the situation…
Other options – Luis Severino
Lance McCullers, HOU ($8800)
McCullers is about $1500 too cheap today on FD, and while his walk rate introduces a lot more risk than Kluber, the upside is the same. McCullers is a -195 favorite with a 3.4 IRTA, and the White Sox have the fourth highest K rate against RHP thus far this year (which projects to remain that way). If there are bats you don’t want to sacrifice by taking Kluber, this is the clear way to go. Either way is acceptable in cash, and the lineups may push your choice as they come out.
Other options – Nick Pivetta, Luis Castillo, Miles Mikolas, Francisco Liriano, Caleb Smith
Freddie Freeman, ATL ($4100)
Freeman seems like a luxury on this slate, but his .404 wOBA and .268 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year certainly plays well, especially since it’s warm in Atlanta. Freeman has two multihit games so far in this series with the Mets, and today’s matchup against Zack Wheeler is the best one of the weekend.
Other options – Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto, Gary Sanchez
Carlos Santana, PHI ($3300)
Santana is a fine value play at 1B today. Trevor Williams has been fine to start the year, but he’s still got wide platoon splits that can be taken advantage of. Williams has allowed a .353 wOBA and 1.21 HR/9 to LHB since the beginning of last season, and Santana has a .251 ISO against RHP in that span. The park is not the best, but Philly is an upgrade over Pittsburgh.
Other options – Justin Bour, Yonder Alonso, Brad Miller, Logan Morrison
Catcher punts – James McCann, Wilson Ramos, Jett Bandy
Jose Altuve, HOU ($4500)
The homers haven’t come yet for Altuve, but otherwise he’s just doing what he does, and he remains one of the highest floor plays on any slate. Reynaldo Lopez’s K rate is strong to start the season, but he’s walked over five batters per nine innings and his 1.42 ERA is masked by a 4.36 xFIP. The Astros offense went nuts yesterday and they have an IRT approaching five runs today.
Other options – Brian Dozier, Asdrubal Cabrera
Jason Kipnis, CLE ($3000)
I’m a fan of the Indians offense today. Andrew Cashner continues to defy the odds with luck, and his 3.00 ERA is smoke and mirrors when you look at his 4.80 xFIP. He has also allowed 1.88 HR/9 to start the year and ZiPS projects a 1.48 mark for the entire year. It’s warmed up in Baltimore, and Cleveland’s IRT of 4.5 runs seems too low to me.
Other options – Whit Merrifield, Matt Carpenter, Starlin Castro
Jose Ramirez, CLE ($4300)
Same idea, really. Ramirez’s hard hit rate isn’t great right now, but he did go 3-4 with a homer yesterday. Ramirez is better from the right side but he’s still posted a .359 wOBA and .196 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year. If you choose McCullers over Kluber as your SP, I’m perfectly OK with spending on Ramirez in cash here.
Other options – Travis Shaw, Miguel Sano, Jeimer Candelario
Miguel Andujar, NYY ($2900)
I’d like to see a lineup boost above seventh before committing almost $3000 on Andujar, but it’s a possibility on a Sunday when we sometimes see watered-down lineups. After a slow start to his Yankee career, Andujar has really turned it on lately, with nine hits, five doubles, and two homers over the last five games. Jaime Garcia is good at keeping the ball on the ground, but he’s allowed a .181 ISO to RHB over the last three years.
Other options – Ryan Flaherty, Brian Anderson
Francisco Lindor, CLE ($4300)
If you pay up at SS, I lean the way of the Indians offense again. Lindor has flashed a 32% hard hit rate the last five games and gets the same matchup against Andrew Cashner who I’ve already harped on a few times in this article. Lindor is a switch hitter who has power from both sides with speed ability as well, and the Baltimore bullpen is also off to a bad start.
Other options – Manny Machado, Carlos Correa
Miguel Rojas, MIA ($2600)
Eh, whatever. There’s nothing redeeming about Rojas as a player, but he’s $2600 and should hit first or second in the lineup. On the road in a good hitting environment he’s a way you can punt a pretty rotten position.
Other options – Jose Peraza, JP Crawford, Orlando Arcia, Eric Sogard
Giancarlo Stanton, NYY ($4800)
It’s amazing how many people are overreacting to Stanton’s start to the year. When he’s facing a lefty, he’s the best option. Period. Stanton has over a .400 ISO against LHP since the beginning of 2016, and Jaime Garcia is certainly long-ball prone in that time. The only way he’s not in my lineup today is if I go Kluber in cash. Otherwise, full steam ahead.
Other options – Aaron Judge, George Springer, Michael Conforto, Josh Reddick, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain, Nick Castellanos
Ryan Braun, MIL ($3200)
Braun should be in your cash lineups regardless of your SP. He’s underpriced at $3200, and the Brewers are tied for the highest IRT on FanDuel’s slate at 5.1 runs. Braun is certainly on the decline, but he’s still a lefty killer who has a .373 wOBA and .233 ISO against LHP since the beginning of last season.
Other options – Domingo Santana, Jay Bruce, Ender Inciarte, Eddie Rosario, Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, Derek Dietrich, Adam Frazier