FanDuel DFS MLB Picks | 4/12/19


This will me my last article for a little over a week, as we embark for sunny Orlando tonight in the old front-wheel drive sleigh. I will be in chat with our subs when I can, but the team will take good care of you in my absence. Tonight we have 12 games on the docket, and a mess of ways to build, so let’s get right down to it. Make sure to check me out on twitter as well @jac3600. Good luck!

STARTING PITCHER

TOP PLAY

Carlos Carrasco, CLE ($10,500)

Carrasco is off to an amazing start with a 3.42 FIP and 34.8% K rate, and he’s found relative success in his career at Kaufmann Stadium (3.02 FIP and 68 strikeouts in 66 innings here). K’s are the king of DFS, so if you want to spend on the safety there no one at FTA will fault you for it. This Royals squad can wreak havoc on the basepaths but they’re still bottom ten in baseline wOBA and ISO, and their 3.4 IRT is the lowest on the slate.

Other options – Patrick Corbin, J.A. Happ

VALUE PLAY

Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS ($8300)

E-Rod has been, let’s face it, a disaster this year so far with a 15% K rate an a 6.85 FIP. If you want to use that as an excuse not to use him I don’t blame you, but here are some potential positives. Rodriguez is by FAR the biggest favorite on the slate at -255 which goes a long way towards predicting a win (much more important on FD), and the Orioles still have an IRT under four despite E-Rod’s early struggles. Baltimore ranked last in K% against LHP last year and they’re 27th so far this year, and Rodriguez had a 26.4% K rate just a season ago. At the very least, get yourself some GPP exposure here.

Other options – Jake Arrieta, Julio Urias, Sean Newcomb, Drew Pomeranz, Luke Weaver, Drew Smyly

CATCHER/FIRST BASE

Mitch Moreland, BOS ($4000)

Boston lefties are the first place to look tonight for hitters, and Moreland brings the “hot” factor into play as well as he’s now homered in four of his last five games. The real appeal is the matchup, as David Hess allowed a laughable 2.55 HR/9 to LHB last year along with a 45% HHR. Moreland’s price tag has corrected itself, but he’s still worth rostering given the immense upside here. Boston has a slate-high IRT of 6.1 and their hitters should be aggressively pursued in all formats.

Other options – Freddie Freeman, Pete Alonso, Luke Voit, Gary Sanchez

VALUE PLAY

Greg Bird, NYY ($2800)

I have to admit – I’m a little torn on how to feel about using Yankees tonight. They have an IRT of 5.6 runs which is second only to the Red Sox, but it seems kind of weird to me with them down so many player (not to mention they called up Kyle Higashioka which could mean potential trouble for Gary Sanchez). Lucas Giolito continues to struggle with command (11.1% BB rate), but his xFIP (3.13) is MUCH better than his 5.73 ERA would indicate and he’s also striking out over a batter per inning. Ultimately, Bird is just too cheap for a premier lineup spot with the short RF porch, and he has a career .219 ISO against RHP. He can be used in any format.

Other options – Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Belt, Eric Hosmer, Justin Smoak, Tyler White

Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Robinson Chirinos, Buster Posey, Welington Castillo

SECOND BASE

Jose Altuve, HOU ($4300)

Altuve is on fire right now, with four homers in his last three games to go along with six runs, six RBI, and eight hits. Opposing pitcher Wade LeBlanc is a neutral split guy, but Altuve has a .389 wOBA and .180 ISO against LHP the last three years, and LeBlanc has struggled with power his whole career (1.33 HR/9 allowed). Most projection systems are calling for him to allow between 1.45 and 1.60 HR/9, which is enough to firmly put Houston on the radar with an IRT of five runs even with a park downgrade.

Other options – Whit Merrifield, Jonathan Villar

VALUE PLAY

Rougned Odor, TEX ($2800)

Odor is often too boom-or-bust for cash, but tonight is a instance I think you can do it. Mike Fiers is awful, and now he gets a massive park downgrade to the heat of Texas. Fiers 1.69 and 1.88 HR/9 the previous two years and has now begun this year with a 6.56 xFIP and a 13.2 K% against an 11.8% BB rate. Odor has a .223 ISO against RHP the last two years and should hit second. Stack those Rangers in GPP, and Odor is way too cheap for cash.

Other options – Brandon Lowe, Brian Dozier, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia

THIRD BASE

Alex Bregman, HOU ($3600)

This largely follows the Altuve blurb. Bregman has a career .390 wOBA and .232 ISO against LHP and is pretty much given free rein to run at will. He’s dealing with a hammy issue which could limit his running upside, but he’s really cheap for his talent level and matchup.

Other options – Matt Chapman, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado

VALUE PLAY

Jose Ramirez, CLE ($3400)

Ramirez has been ice cold to start the season, with only six total hits the entire year to go along with a -1 wRC+ (!) and .045 ISO. We know what Ramirez is, and this will not last. I’m not saying the slump will end today, I’m just pointing out that arguably a top-three hitter in baseball is $3400 when he was routinely over $5000 last year and will be again at some point this year.

Other options – Rafael Devers, Josh Donaldson, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jung Ho Kang

SHORTSTOP

TOP PLAY

Marcus Semien, OAK ($3900)

Don’t forget the A’s, who are crushing baseballs right now and have won me a lot of money this week. Semien should lead off agains the lefty Drew Smyly and he’s sizzling right now with three doubles, two homers, seven hits, and a 41.6% HHR over his last four games. The A’s once against have an IRT well over five runs and will continue to get an insane park boost in Texas. Smyly has K upside but cannot keep the ball in the park (1.56 HR/9 allowed last two seasons).

Other options – Carlos Correa, Trevor Story, Xander Bogaerts, Jean Segura, Tim Anderson

VALUE PLAY

Amed Rosario, NYM ($2700)

If you’re paying up elsewhere (Carrasco or the slew of elite outfielders we have tonight), Rosario is a fine value. He should be leading off against the lefty Newcomb, who has walked over five batters per inning in his career. While he has yet to really flash his speed upside this season, Rosario has a 34.1% HHR over his last five games and is fresh off a game where he homered and drove in four.

Other options – Elvis Andrus, Corey Seager, Brandon Crawford

OUTFIELD

Andrew Benintendi, BOS ($3600)

Not calling Khris Davis against lefty the top play after what he did in Baltimore this week seems borderline criminal, but I have to take other factors into account (most notably the fact that Benintendi is $1000 less than Davis, and also his Boston teammates). It’s just too cheap a tag for Benintendi tonight, who will lead off for the Red Sox and their 6.1 IRT while having the platoon edge against David Hess who I’ve already attacked in this article. Benintendi has a career .362 wOBA and 124 wRC+ against RHP, and the RBI machines behind him give him a sky high floor for cash. I consider him a lock tonight.

Other options – Khris Davis, Stephen Piscotty, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham, Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, George Springer, Joey Gallo, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton

VALUE PLAY

Mark Canha, OAK ($2600)

Canha is a way to get similar upside to Khris Davis at a fraction of the cost. He has hit fifth more often than not this season, and Drew Smyly allowed a 48% FB rate and 1.61 HR/9 to RHB back in 2017 when he last pitched. I’m not saying not to roster Davis as well, but Canha seems like an incredibly sensible way to attack the same matchup/environment.

Other options – Robbie Grossman, Ramon Laureano, Nomar Mazara, Shin Soo Choo, Jackie Bradley, Chad Pinder, Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez, Eloy Jimenez, Jarrod Dyson

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