Well, I put all my eggs in the Rangers basket yesterday and they failed miserably. Luckily DK was still fine thanks to a shrewd Gary Sanchez pick, but FD was a wreck. We’ll attempt to make it up tonight with our little five-gamer, and there are a few ways we can go to build a lineup. The easy part will be at SP with Berrios (see below), but we’ll fine the best approaches to both cash and GPP tonight. Follow me on twitter @jac3600, and I’ll be in FTA+ chat tonight. Good luck!
Jose Berrios, MIN ($9000)
I’ve admittedly been a bit low on Berrios due to the fact that his FIP/xFIP indicate good luck, but so far this year we’ve seen a solid step forward as he’s posted a 13:1 K/BB ratio. The White Sox project to be very poor and very strikeout heavy, especially against RHP, and Berrios is a solid -172 favorite with a 3.7 IRTA. He’s a cash lock, but I would differentiate in GPP.
Other options – Gio Gonzalez, Sonny Gray
Chris Stratton, SF ($6000)
Stratton is my favorite GPP option with a great matchup against the Wil Myers-less Padres. He hasn’t yet reached six innings this year so the QS factor is a problem. However, the Padres had the second highest K rate against RHP last season and have a 3.6 IRT which is the lowest on the slate. You can stack whatever you want on offense for GPP upside if you go Stratton, and he could eke out a win even without the QS.
Other options – Lucas Giolito, Andrew Heaney, Bryan Mitchell
Gary Sanchez, NYY ($3400)
On this short slate, a catcher rises to the top of the heap. Sanchez went ballistic yesterday with 53.6 FD points and gets to take aim at the Green Monster once again tonight. Rick Porcello is off to a good start this season, but he’s fresh off a year where he allowed 1.68 HR/9, and the Boston bullpen is shot after having to pitch eight innings yesterday.
Other options – Jose Abreu, Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez
Ryan Zimmerman, WAS ($2700)
Zimmerman doesn’t have the benefit of facing the Rockies in Coors Field, but he still gets to take aim at Chad Bettis who has been one of the key reverse split pitchers over the past few years. In his career, Bettis has allowed a .369 wOBA and 1.47 HR/9 to RHB, and Washington is the only team on the slate with an IRT over five runs. Zimmerman should hit third or fourth and is tremendous value.
Other options – Neil Walker, Brandon Belt, Logan Morrison, Chris Iannetta
Catcher punts – Jason Castro, Pedro Severino
Brian Dozier, MIN ($4100)
Dozier is someone you generally target against LHP, but he’s been fine against righties as well. Over the past two seasons, Dozier has compiled 110 combined homers and SBs, so you’re getting plenty of event upside here. Lucas Giolito has started to make strides forward but he’s still allowing a lot of hard hit balls and aerial contact. On this slate, it’s OK to pay up if you have the funds.
Other options – Zack Cozart, Yoan Moncada
Whit Merrifield, KC ($3200)
Whit’s price has finally started to rise, but it’s still too cheap for the event upside he brings to the position. The Royals have one of the lower team total at just four runs, but Merrifield is fresh off a season where he had a combined 51 homers and steals, and he also posted a .207 ISO against LHP last season.
Other options – Howie Kendrick, Joe Panik, Carlos Asuaje
Nolan Arenado, COL ($4300)
We’ll have to see if Arenado is suspended after he charged the mound fists flying yesterday, but if he is he’s always a great option against a lefty. Arenado has posted an elite .271 ISO against LHP over the past three years and has proven to be effective away from Coors. Gio Gonzalez is a quality pitcher but he’s still allowed a 31% hard hit rate to RHB the past three years.
Other options – Miguel Sano, Anthony Rendon
Luis Valbuena, LAA ($2900)
The rest of the 3B position is pretty blah, but Valbuena could be a sneaky value if he gets a decent lineup spot. The Angels have a tidy little 4.5 IRT, and are facing Ian Kennedy who has allowed 1.99, 1.52, and 1.66 HR/9 over the past three seasons. This an incredibly large sample size of being home run prone, and Valbuena carries some power upside.
Other options – Evan Longoria, Miguel Andujar
Trea Turner, WAS ($4200)
I love me some Trea Turner tonight, especially since the rest of the SS position is pretty awful outside of Didi Gregorius and maybe Trevor Story. Turner is the type of player that projects for at least 80 combined homers and steals if he can play a full season (he had 57 in only 98 games last year) and gets the reverse splits of Chad Bettis. Turner should hit first or second and be the catalyst for the Nationals offense that has the highest IRT on the slate.
Other options – Didi Gregorius, Trevor Story
Brandon Crawford, SF ($2400)
Gross. I’m paying for Turner in cash, but if you want to differentiate with a GPP punt, Crawford has a .191 ISO against RHP over the past three years. He shouldn’t hit any higher than sixth, but if he does he’d enter the cash conversation for sure, even in a bad hitting environment.
Other options – Eduardo Nunez, Pat Valaika
Mike Trout, LAA ($5300)
The outfield is absolutely loaded tonight, even with a five game slate. You’re going to need at least one big piece, and Trout looks to me to be the best option going once again. He’ll be hitting on the road and should get to feast off of Ian Kennedy’s long ball issues, and Trout himself has a .423 wOBA and a .309 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last season.
Other options – Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Andrew Benintendi, Justin Upton
Brian Goodwin, WAS ($2600)
I’ve mentioned that the Washington righties are the better targets for cash due to Chad Bettis’ extreme reverse splits, but Goodwin is still a really solid value as the leadoff hitter for a team with the highest IRT on the slate. In a limited role last year, Goodwin managed to post a .242 ISO against RHP and has moderate speed as well.
Other options – Brett Gardner, Kole Calhoun, Avisail Garcia, Andrew McCutchen, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Franchy Cordero