Well, last night was pretty quickly derailed by Jacob deGrom getting roughed up by the Twinkies (who da thunk??). Tonight we get right back to it with another nine-game slate, and $500 Chris Davis should ACTUALLY be in the lineup this time! How many of you went with him anyway? I’ll be in chat helping our subs break down the MLB slate and also the final regular season NBA slate. It’s gonna be a fun one! Make sure to follow me on twitter @jac3600.
NOTE: The Rockies/Braves game has been PPD, which eliminates two of the three top offenses on the slate. We should see a dramatically different lineup construct now.
ADDITIONAL NOTE: I’m an idiot. This game was on the early slate. Disregard.
Noah Syndergaard, NYM ($10,100)
I know deGrom crapped the bed for us, but you can certainly go back to Syndergaard tonight if you have the funds for bats (especially if you use the mighty Chris Davis). He is the largest favorite on the slate (-190) with the lowest IRTA (3.2), and the Twins are losing the DH (which, for them, is a big deal since it’s Nelson Cruz). They are currently in the bottom ten for K rate in the majors, but Thor is still rocking a 28.3% mark to start the year. He’s not the lock deGrom was last night, but he’s certainly the top play and more than usable in all formats.
Other options – James Paxton
Robbie Ray, ARI ($8100)
Ray is currently the top per-dollar play at SP, and you can get literally any offense you want if you use him AND Chris Davis. Ray’s run prevention has been volatile, but he’s struck out more than 12 batters per nine innings over the past two seasons and gets an elite matchup against the Rangers. Over the past three seasons, the Rangers have ranked 29th in road wOBA and also lead the majors in strikeouts per at-bat this season so far. Ray is a -150 favorite with a 3.8 IRTA.
Other options – Collin McHugh, Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Felix Pena
Rhys Hoskins, PHI ($4900)
Hoskins lost his HR streak last night against Stephen Strasburg, but he’s in a prime spot to get it back this evening against Jeremy Hellickson. Hoskins is sizzling to start to year with a 46% HHR and an unreal .500 ISO, and Hellickson has made a career of allowing the long ball (1.29 HR/9). His velocity is down over the past two years, and the major projection systems are calling for him to allow between 1.50 and 1.55 HR/9 this season. Hoskins is fine as a UTIL, but you’re using Chris Davis in cash.
Other options – Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion, Peter Alonso, Gary Sanchez
Chris Davis, BAL ($500)
Davis will be back in the lineup tonight against a righty, which makes him a lock in my eyes at his $500 price tag. Yes, I realize how incredibly bad Davis has been to start the season, but there are ACTUALLY signs of positivity, most notably a 46% HHR and 94 MPH exit velocity over the past five games. Davis’ biggest downside is obviously the strikeout, but his opposing pitcher (Frankie Montas) only registered a 15% K rate last season. All Davis needs to do to hit value is walk, and the rest is gravy.
Other options – Ryan Zimmerman, Kendrys Morales, Greg Bird, Justin Bour
Catcher values – JT Realmuto, Yasmani Grandal, Nick Hundley
Whit Merrifield, KC ($4300)
Merrifield extended his hitting streak to 30 games last night, tying George Brett’s Royals record. Merrifield had a .368 wOBA and 39.5% HHR in the platoon split last year along with 18 SBs, and he’s shown no signs of slowing down this season. With Coors off the table, Merrifield is now worth his price tag in cash, but there are definite values at 2B as well.
Other options – Jonathan Villar, Jose Altuve
Jurickson Profar, OAK ($2300)
The A’s are crushing Baltimore right now, and with Coors off the slate they’re now the clear top offense with an IRT of a whopping six runs (higher than any Coors game so far). Profar’s batting order spot is tough to gauge lately, but Dan Straily is a launching pad AND his velocity is way down. Straily has allowed a career 1.46 HR/9 but the velocity dip and poor park factor has all the major projection systems calling for well over two homers per nine allowed this year. You want at least two A’s in cash tonight, and Profar is cheap access.
Other options – Mike Moustakas, Cesar Hernandez, Brian Dozier
TOP PLAY AND TOP VALUE
Matt Chapman, OAK ($3400)
Chapman is a core play on this slate. He’s not only the top projected hitter at the position but he’s also massively underpriced (I’d pay 4k+ for him). Chapman gets the same matchup against Straily, and the former was a big time reverse split hitter a year ago with a .376 wOBA and a .258 ISO against RHP. He’s my #DFSHRcall tonight, and I’m locking him into cash first.
Other options – Anthony Rendon, Alex Bregman, Matt Carpenter, Travis Shaw, Eduardo Escobar
Adalberto Mondesi, KC ($4000)
Pairing Mondesi with Merrifield in GPPs is a really sharp move, and I don’t even mind it in cash. Mondesi had a .233 ISO against LHP last season and he’s got the green light to steal whenever he gets on (which should be often at home, as he’s currently hitting .385 there). Yusei Kikuchi has shown himself to be VERY slow to the plate, and Omar Narvaez currently ranks in the bottom ten in rSB rating.
Other options – Javier Baez, Jean Segura
Marcus Semien, OAK ($3100)
Semien likely won’t lead off as he does against lefties, but anyone in this lineup is playable tonight. Semien had a huge day at the plate yesterday, and the most impressive thing about him so far this year is his 11% BB rate against only a 12% K rate. Even hitting seventh or eighth, Semien would be viable at his price tag for an A’s offense that is dwarfing the slate.
Other options – Elvis Andrus, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager
Khris Davis, OAK ($4000)
You probably saw this one coming. The A’s are the top offense on the slate, so naturally the best hitter in the lineup is going to be a featured player. Davis has an incredible .315 ISO against same-handed pitching since the beginning of last season, and his 133 homers from 2016-18 is the most of any major leaguer (and he’s already got five this year). Don’t get cute and fade here.
Other options – Bryce Harper, Andrew McCutchen, Mitch Haniger, Domingo Santana, Jay Bruce, Mallex Smith, Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Michael Conforto, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto
Stephen Piscotty/Robbie Grossman, OAK ($3400/$2800)
More A’s. Piscotty is another hitter I really want tonight as he joins a long list of Oakland players that are reverse split hitters (Piscotty .232 ISO against RHP since the beginning of last year). Grossman obviously doesn’t have the upside of the aforementioned A’s, but he leads off and should get five PAs on the road against Dan Straily and a Baltimore bullpen that now ranks last in SIERA. Load ’em up.
Other options – Ramon Laureano, Joc Pederson, Adam Eaton, Jarrod Dyson, Brandon Nimmo, Dwight Smith, Cedric Mullins, Delino DeShields, Brett Gardner, Odubel HerreraFantasy Baseball